Jaxson Villain
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The “no clue” 3 star is likely Plazz.
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Defining June as the Biggest Recruiting Month in Years.
- Thread starter RVACane
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Similar to last year I would imagine. Maybe a Dylan Stewart commit around the same time Cormani committed. As long as we have the same pace as last year, I'm good with it.
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Expectations seem to be depressed across the board regarding recruiting. There are many factors that have played into this. The primary one being the hangover from the Gattis/5-7 debacle. This coupled with issues with Ruiz and our slow start in getting elite 2024 commits have all come together to be a trigger that has brought a lot of our subconscious fears to the surface. Fears rooted in 20 years of negligence, incompetence and flat out apathy from an administration that saw the football program as something to be emasculated and apologized for. That contempt for the program clearly manifested itself in a slapstick version of musical chairs for head coaches who were either woefully underqualified or totally incompetent. The ones who had any modicum of competence were hamstrung and/or backstabbed by the Machiavellian machinations of a politically motivated and inept administration.
What can be easily forgotten when caught up in the above is that we are witnessing an entirely different paradigm that Rad, Mario and Zo are installing in place of the poisoned, dysfunctional, impotent and dying culture that we have come to know over the last 20 years. This programs stock had sunk to unprecedented lows and is still at a low level in terms of perception mainly because of Gattis/5-7 yet this is also why I am buying up as many shares of Miami football and recruiting stock that I can get a hold of.
Cristobal has shown that he is an elite recruiter over and over again and I believe that he will continue to show that this year and beyond. Mario and Co. have a plan in place and they have stuck to that plan since taking over. The main problem we face is that certain perceptions about Mario being a contemporary Woody Hayes were not immediately put to rest in his first season. This is the result of Mario's most egregious mistake thus far which was following up Morehead at Oregon with Gattis in year 1 here in Miami. This mistake and it's consequences cannot be overstated. It was a phak up of immense proportions but it may have had a silver lining in that it served to slap Mario in the face with the cold dead fish of reality and was the catalyst for his "Come to Jesus" moment where he finally realized that he was putting the cart before the horse in his narrow vision of making us a physical team that can run the football. I believe he learned what many of us have been saying since day one. That is that running the football is great but we were not equipped to do so and also that he will never get the elite QBs and WRs that he wants and we so desperately need if he doesn't run an offense that is explosive, aggressive, throws the football, scores points and is fun to watch. First because it fits our brand and personality and secondly because doing that will destroy the perception that he is a ground and pound fuddy duddy who ruins QBs and hems in offenses.
5-7 also gave him a reason to revamp the entire staff including DC Kevin Steele who's style clearly wasn't working and allowed him to bring in DC Guidry, OC Dawson, DL coach Jason Taylor, RB coach Tim Harris and TE coach Cody Woodiel. The current staff is 100% better than last year's and it will show on the trail and during games. Cristobal will be able to recruit QBs and WRs at an elite level but due to the fact that we were set back with the Gattis fiasco, elite players at QB and WR are going to want to see proof of concept during the year. Im very confident that Dawson will craft an offense that recruits will want to play in. The fact is that right now we aren't in position to sell tangible results to elite QBs so for now we are forced to evaluate QBs as best we can and this is why we have taken toolsy developmental types like Judd Anderson and Emory Williams. I do think Williams is an outlier in that I think he will be able to play at a high level relatively soon.
We all know that Cristobal can recruit at an elite level but there are 4 position that will determine his ability to succeed here. QB, WR, DT and CB. I have every confidence that we will successfully recruit DT and CB and that we will see that in the 24 class. QB and WR recruiting will be greatly influenced by the type of offense that Dawson is able to put together and again I am confident that he will do a very good job and that his job will get easier every year as the talent level increases. This is a brand new era in Miami football. We all knew that Mario wasn't perfect but as long as he is willing to strengthen his weaknesses and surround himself with excellent coaches I think he will succeed here. This time the UM head coach has an unprecedented amount of support from a competent AD and a strong administration. State of the art facilities and a brand new infrastructure are just the beginning.
What can be easily forgotten when caught up in the above is that we are witnessing an entirely different paradigm that Rad, Mario and Zo are installing in place of the poisoned, dysfunctional, impotent and dying culture that we have come to know over the last 20 years. This programs stock had sunk to unprecedented lows and is still at a low level in terms of perception mainly because of Gattis/5-7 yet this is also why I am buying up as many shares of Miami football and recruiting stock that I can get a hold of.
Cristobal has shown that he is an elite recruiter over and over again and I believe that he will continue to show that this year and beyond. Mario and Co. have a plan in place and they have stuck to that plan since taking over. The main problem we face is that certain perceptions about Mario being a contemporary Woody Hayes were not immediately put to rest in his first season. This is the result of Mario's most egregious mistake thus far which was following up Morehead at Oregon with Gattis in year 1 here in Miami. This mistake and it's consequences cannot be overstated. It was a phak up of immense proportions but it may have had a silver lining in that it served to slap Mario in the face with the cold dead fish of reality and was the catalyst for his "Come to Jesus" moment where he finally realized that he was putting the cart before the horse in his narrow vision of making us a physical team that can run the football. I believe he learned what many of us have been saying since day one. That is that running the football is great but we were not equipped to do so and also that he will never get the elite QBs and WRs that he wants and we so desperately need if he doesn't run an offense that is explosive, aggressive, throws the football, scores points and is fun to watch. First because it fits our brand and personality and secondly because doing that will destroy the perception that he is a ground and pound fuddy duddy who ruins QBs and hems in offenses.
5-7 also gave him a reason to revamp the entire staff including DC Kevin Steele who's style clearly wasn't working and allowed him to bring in DC Guidry, OC Dawson, DL coach Jason Taylor, RB coach Tim Harris and TE coach Cody Woodiel. The current staff is 100% better than last year's and it will show on the trail and during games. Cristobal will be able to recruit QBs and WRs at an elite level but due to the fact that we were set back with the Gattis fiasco, elite players at QB and WR are going to want to see proof of concept during the year. Im very confident that Dawson will craft an offense that recruits will want to play in. The fact is that right now we aren't in position to sell tangible results to elite QBs so for now we are forced to evaluate QBs as best we can and this is why we have taken toolsy developmental types like Judd Anderson and Emory Williams. I do think Williams is an outlier in that I think he will be able to play at a high level relatively soon.
We all know that Cristobal can recruit at an elite level but there are 4 position that will determine his ability to succeed here. QB, WR, DT and CB. I have every confidence that we will successfully recruit DT and CB and that we will see that in the 24 class. QB and WR recruiting will be greatly influenced by the type of offense that Dawson is able to put together and again I am confident that he will do a very good job and that his job will get easier every year as the talent level increases. This is a brand new era in Miami football. We all knew that Mario wasn't perfect but as long as he is willing to strengthen his weaknesses and surround himself with excellent coaches I think he will succeed here. This time the UM head coach has an unprecedented amount of support from a competent AD and a strong administration. State of the art facilities and a brand new infrastructure are just the beginning.
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Dream scenario. Love it.
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Pretty sure I heard or read that Paradise is going to be on a Thursday this year. Think Lake/Gaby suggested that OV guys may show up the day before their officials start
BoxingRobes
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I know, b. I had a terrible response to your question. However, after like 20 years of unfulfilled promises on recruiting, I can't just help but take it in stride.
We'll probably land some good players, but will likely be a standup double with no one on when we were promised a grand slam, ya know? Par for the course for this University for a long while now...and we will likely have to be in a dog fight with those commits to the bitter end.
Allabouttheu95
stay home on gamedays Mario
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I can’t wait for the summer momentum but I’m also cautiously optimistic given the fact that kids have unlimited OV’s now. Many questions are going to be answered late in cycle to see how crazy it gets. I hope summer visits pay off just like they did last year but I’m thinking with the new rules the game has change and summer is too early.
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Come on, man, you know the recruiting ranking is not just based on stars. It is still a good thing when a "low 3-star" climbs toa "high 3-star".
Also, let's look at the entire group. Currently, for the Class of 2024, the "lowest" ranked 4-star is the #431 ranked player. In 2023, the "lowest" ranked 4-star was the #448 ranked player.
Currently, we have:
560 - S Isaiah Thomas - missed the second half of 2022 with a torn ACL
631 - S Dylan Day - very small, may grow as a senior
706 - RB Chris Wheatley-Humphrey - rating makes no sense for a 1,000 yard rusher who averaged 16.7 YPC last year
730 - LB Vincent Shavers
With good senior seasons, any of those guys could easily rise the 100-300 spots necessary to become 4-stars.
Also, Judd plays QB, so it's fairly common to see a rise from a high-stats QB. Juan Minaya and Daylen Russell don't play flashy "stats" positions, and I doubt we'll see much of a rise with our kicker, Abram Murray.
You say that YOU don't anticipate more than 2 or 3 of our current 3 stars climbing up to 4 stars, but based on what? I hope the answer is not "history". The five guys I have listed (Thomas, Day, Wheatley-Humphrey, Shavers, and Anderson) all play positions where they can improve their profiles with stats and physical growth. And even if they all just break into the Top 500, it's still a nice improvement for the class rankings.
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stoopid311
Recruit
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If August 1st comes and we don’t have much or anything to show from the incredible June visitor list, I’d start to be a little concerned. But the reality is we have a lot to stress over with this program and recruiting is not high on that list. It’s where Mario and the staff excel. Come December we’ll have a top 10 class, probably knocking on the top 5 door. How we’ll get there, I have no idea. If it’s one of those cycles where the big names wait it out, so be it. But I’d be shocked if some big names didn’t start jumping on board around July 4th, like other posters have mentioned.
No idea on timeline, so will let others weigh in. Also not about to worry self with expectations & pre-judge staff. Biggest take-away is pleased that staff has us in the game. We’re trying. Who knows how many, if any, big dogs we eventually land, but it’s refreshing this staff at least competes.
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I think they will all rise and it will be a good thing that will improve class rankings. I just don’t anticipate more than 2 or 3 of them rising all the way up to 4 stars. You listed 5 guys so we’re not that really far apart. My 2 locks are Thomas (assuming he’s healthy) and CWH. My wildcard is Shavers because of the school he’s at and the schedule he plays. Scouts will get a good look at him all year. If he has a breakout season and his measurements are legit he can see a huge jump.
IMO Anderson is very raw and is going to be penalized by not making the Elite 11 underwear Olympics. By all accounts Emory was much further along developmentally and had a pretty good showing at the underwear Olympics and still didn’t crack 4 star. Day as you mentioned is very small right now and I don’t anticipate him gaining the 20-25 pounds of good weight he needs outside of a college S&C and nutrition program.
Again, we’re not that really far apart and doesn’t mean they’re bad evals, just that a couple of guys are going to need a little more time and I don’t think the SEC nuthugging recruiting nerds are going to go out of their way to do us any favors.
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Everyone do this exercise with me:
NFL teams/GMs, who get to draft fully developed adults with years of ESPN/FOX etc. ten-camera game tape, practice film, wonderlics, S2's, combines, pro days, private work outs, interviews, etc, all have wildly divergent draft boards. And that's just the FIRST ROUND. Once you get past the first 30-40 players, it gets even more divergent. Some teams have a kid in the 3rd round that others don't even have on their boards. We're talking about complete difference of opinion. And they only have to really evaluate maybe 500 guys for a ~250 pick draft.
Now compare that to CFB. Where you have much more limited resources (yes, even UGA and Bama, and even today) to evaluate 16 and 17 year old kids that are still growing and learning, with limited experience, tons of position changes, who play against various different levels of competition with extremely different levels of coaching. You don't have to scout 150 colleges, you have to scout like 3000 HS's in various podunk towns all over and try to figure out what that quick, skinny, bean-pole kid is going to be in three years.
How divergent do you think each teams "board" is going to look? Once you get past the first 40-50 players where there is probably still only 70-75% alignment, it all goes haywire.
Now imagine you have to throw your cards in with just one coach, one staff, one board. Go off their opinion. You invite Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, Jim Harbaugh, Lincoln Riley, Mario Cristobal, Mike Norvell, Brian Kelly, Hugh Freeze, Dan Lanning... and Andrew Ivins, who isn't a coach or a trained scout, into a room and you have to pick one guy's board to go with, even though you know they will be drastically different.
But then I tell you that you don't get to pick, that you have to go with Andrew Ivins, you don't get to use an actual CFB program's board. And then I tell you, pssstttt... not only are those rankings compiled by a bunch of non-scouts/ non-coaches, but there is irrefutable concrete evidence that they are CORRUPT. That they favor kids who comes to their camps, big subscription bases, kids who tweet a lot and self-promote and give interviews, and they've even been catfished and have ranked imaginary players.
That's the 247/On3 etc rankings most of you treat as accurate. That's why I laugh at the star system and the entertainment rankings. It's amateurish entertainment, nothing less.
Have fun with them, and sure, reference them because its all we got, but never let them upset you. And never treat them as credible.
NFL teams/GMs, who get to draft fully developed adults with years of ESPN/FOX etc. ten-camera game tape, practice film, wonderlics, S2's, combines, pro days, private work outs, interviews, etc, all have wildly divergent draft boards. And that's just the FIRST ROUND. Once you get past the first 30-40 players, it gets even more divergent. Some teams have a kid in the 3rd round that others don't even have on their boards. We're talking about complete difference of opinion. And they only have to really evaluate maybe 500 guys for a ~250 pick draft.
Now compare that to CFB. Where you have much more limited resources (yes, even UGA and Bama, and even today) to evaluate 16 and 17 year old kids that are still growing and learning, with limited experience, tons of position changes, who play against various different levels of competition with extremely different levels of coaching. You don't have to scout 150 colleges, you have to scout like 3000 HS's in various podunk towns all over and try to figure out what that quick, skinny, bean-pole kid is going to be in three years.
How divergent do you think each teams "board" is going to look? Once you get past the first 40-50 players where there is probably still only 70-75% alignment, it all goes haywire.
Now imagine you have to throw your cards in with just one coach, one staff, one board. Go off their opinion. You invite Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, Jim Harbaugh, Lincoln Riley, Mario Cristobal, Mike Norvell, Brian Kelly, Hugh Freeze, Dan Lanning... and Andrew Ivins, who isn't a coach or a trained scout, into a room and you have to pick one guy's board to go with, even though you know they will be drastically different.
But then I tell you that you don't get to pick, that you have to go with Andrew Ivins, you don't get to use an actual CFB program's board. And then I tell you, pssstttt... not only are those rankings compiled by a bunch of non-scouts/ non-coaches, but there is irrefutable concrete evidence that they are CORRUPT. That they favor kids who comes to their camps, big subscription bases, kids who tweet a lot and self-promote and give interviews, and they've even been catfished and have ranked imaginary players.
That's the 247/On3 etc rankings most of you treat as accurate. That's why I laugh at the star system and the entertainment rankings. It's amateurish entertainment, nothing less.
Have fun with them, and sure, reference them because its all we got, but never let them upset you. And never treat them as credible.
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Yeah, maybe we get some guys in June but mostly I see it in July going to August. And then I see a better haul than that. That type of result from June visits would result in a class outside the Top 15.
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I agree in principle that it’s corrupt but there are some obvious guys who are the cream of the crop. For me I look at the offer list as well. Even that’s not perfect as not all offers are commitable and there are Anez Coopers out there who slip through but the offer list helps a lot.
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Agree about cream of the crop, I addressed that:
"Once you get past the first 40-50 players where there is probably still only 70-75% alignment, it all goes haywire."
But those are kids that the girls selling raffle tickets in the breezeway can identify as 5-stars. Duh.
And 100% agree with offers, as I've stated many, many times. Why in the world would you listen to Andrew Ivins and Bud whomever, when you have access to who the top coaches in CFB are recruiting?
Why in the **** would I care where 247 has a kid ranked right now when Mario & Co. identified him early, want him badly, and locked him up? 247 just moved Chris Cole up like 700 spots overnight. Not kidding. Did anything change about him? Nah. Clowns. Clowns, I say!
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There’s issues with those sites but there’s also clear targets in the Top 100 and Top 247 who the top teams would take followed by the next tier who most would take followed by the next tier many would take. If everyone we have is a 3 star gem we have a problem. There are gems but we have to hit on some of the universally recognized studs too.
We have a chance to do that but I don’t buy that the rankings are so horrific that we should cast that aside because we loaded up with a bunch of 3 stars we’re trying to justify as better than everyone else’s 4 and 5 stars. There’s a limit to how much we can do that and be credible in what we’re saying.
Hooray that Russell committed. I don’t think it’ll happen but were we to whiff on the top DT targets visiting in June and people show up in here talking about corrupt rankings and how Kalijah Kancey was a 3 star, I’m gonna go scorched earth on their shilling slurper asses.
JgDaCane
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I can think of one reason. $$$.
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