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Defining June as the Biggest Recruiting Month in Years.

mossmadness said:
2019 LSU was 5th in the team talent calculator. Average recruit ranking was 90.6.

The UGA team they beat in the SEC title game was 3rd in team talent calculator with an average recruit ranking of 91.7.


2022 UGA’s average recruit ranking was 93.3. And that recruit ranking is only going to grow when 23’s numbers come out, because their ‘23 class had a 94 average. So they are actually shedding “bad” classes.

In 2019, only one team had an average recruit ranking of a 93.

In 2022, Bama had a 94. UGA a 93, and OSU just missed it with a a 92.8.

You are seeing a serious concentration of talent at the top, even amongst elite teams. There’s almost like a 1A and a 1B now.

You need to land some really highly rated recruits, and a bunch of them, if a third of your class is going to be 3* players and you hope to have any chance of closing the gap with the top recruiting classes.
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Right on time, look at my post #140
 
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mossmadness said:
At a time where Kirby Smart lists off the recruiting class rankings of his defense to explain why they are so good, it’s silly to argue recruiting class rankings aren’t everything.

They are the ticket you have to get stamped to get into the building. Now you might not do sh*t once you’re in the building, but you’re not even getting in unless you have a high ranking class.

And we see that every year.

Look at Oregon-UGA in 2022.

Oregon was 7th in the 247 Team Talent Calculator. This was a team made up largely of 4 years of Mario recruiting, scouting, and development.

And Georgia blew that team off the field. And after the game Kirby was very direct in saying Oregon just didn’t have the talent that UGA has. It’s a good staff. They did all they could. But the game was won on national signing day.

The divide between what is even a legit NC worthy recruiting class and “will get you 10/11 wins and murdered in the NC” is getting greater and greater today, that even the 7th ranked class probably isn’t good enough if a NC is the goal.
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I agree with you.

Truth is if things continue the way they have, and it looks like they will, more people will be turned off by the product being churned out. Nobody wants to see the same team/s win every single year. It gets boring...
 
RVACane said:
Timely as it is, I’ve recently had private conversations with others about the manner in which the hype and hope each off-season can take over expectations leading to angry disappointment on the board.

In a similar vein, I want to try to define expectations - timing, commitments… etc., given recent statements by people who carry some clout in recruiting here.

@DMoney referred to June as the “biggest recruiting month in years…” in his ATM post today. Gaby over on 247 said June 9 may be Miami’s biggest official visit weekend in the 247Sports era…” three days ago in an article he wrote. That’s more than 10 years I believe.

People have asked the question on the board today and I think it’s important to define what this means so that proper expectations are set, particularly as to timing, as I think the expectations on the commits are the 4 and 5 star top 247 and higher type players we’ve been talking about. For me, it means commits rolling in during July and August. It does not mean that we failed if the wave doesn’t happen before then.

We’re going after some of the top recruits in the country. They’re going to take visits and a number of them have visits with high level programs scheduled throughout June, particularly on the weekend of the 23rd.

What are your expectations as to when we should expect to see tangible results from the month of June and what do those results look like to you across the board?
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I'm more a "watch the finish " kind of fan. So much time for the "elites" to change their minds. I'll be watching December for real.
 
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Cryptical Envelopment said:
Everyone do this exercise with me:

NFL teams/GMs, who get to draft fully developed adults with years of ESPN/FOX etc. ten-camera game tape, practice film, wonderlics, S2's, combines, pro days, private work outs, interviews, etc, all have wildly divergent draft boards. And that's just the FIRST ROUND. Once you get past the first 30-40 players, it gets even more divergent. Some teams have a kid in the 3rd round that others don't even have on their boards. We're talking about complete difference of opinion. And they only have to really evaluate maybe 500 guys for a ~250 pick draft.

Now compare that to CFB. Where you have much more limited resources (yes, even UGA and Bama, and even today) to evaluate 16 and 17 year old kids that are still growing and learning, with limited experience, tons of position changes, who play against various different levels of competition with extremely different levels of coaching. You don't have to scout 150 colleges, you have to scout like 3000 HS's in various podunk towns all over and try to figure out what that quick, skinny, bean-pole kid is going to be in three years.

How divergent do you think each teams "board" is going to look? Once you get past the first 40-50 players where there is probably still only 70-75% alignment, it all goes haywire.

Now imagine you have to throw your cards in with just one coach, one staff, one board. Go off their opinion. You invite Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, Jim Harbaugh, Lincoln Riley, Mario Cristobal, Mike Norvell, Brian Kelly, Hugh Freeze, Dan Lanning... and Andrew Ivins, who isn't a coach or a trained scout, into a room and you have to pick one guy's board to go with, even though you know they will be drastically different.

But then I tell you that you don't get to pick, that you have to go with Andrew Ivins, you don't get to use an actual CFB program's board. And then I tell you, pssstttt... not only are those rankings compiled by a bunch of non-scouts/ non-coaches, but there is irrefutable concrete evidence that they are CORRUPT. That they favor kids who comes to their camps, big subscription bases, kids who tweet a lot and self-promote and give interviews, and they've even been catfished and have ranked imaginary players.

That's the 247/On3 etc rankings most of you treat as accurate. That's why I laugh at the star system and the entertainment rankings. It's amateurish entertainment, nothing less.

Have fun with them, and sure, reference them because its all we got, but never let them upset you. And never treat them as credible.
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Thats a great post.
 
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Kansas Cane said:
Despite unlimited visits, I think kids will still load up over summer and pop in July so that they can focus on the season.
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I agree, but what we could see a crazy flip season. Unlimited visits will surely have schools throwing NIL and cash for visits just before signing day.
 
mossmadness said:
At a time where Kirby Smart lists off the recruiting class rankings of his defense to explain why they are so good, it’s silly to argue recruiting class rankings aren’t everything.

They are the ticket you have to get stamped to get into the building. Now you might not do sh*t once you’re in the building, but you’re not even getting in unless you have a high ranking class.

And we see that every year.

Look at Oregon-UGA in 2022.

Oregon was 7th in the 247 Team Talent Calculator. This was a team made up largely of 4 years of Mario recruiting, scouting, and development.

And Georgia blew that team off the field. And after the game Kirby was very direct in saying Oregon just didn’t have the talent that UGA has. It’s a good staff. They did all they could. But the game was won on national signing day.

The divide between what is even a legit NC worthy recruiting class and “will get you 10/11 wins and murdered in the NC” is getting greater and greater today, that even the 7th ranked class probably isn’t good enough if a NC is the goal.
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For the most part, yes, you are correct. However, all 7th ranked recruiting classes aren’t created equal. Case in point, someone did an average 4yr recruiting ranking on the last few NC teams in CFP. Results were astonishing. Clemson and LSU by far were the two outside the Top 5 and then you Bama a few times, OSU once, UGA once at that time.

My point is that an LSU team with legit coaching with destroy an annual top 5 recruiting class OSU team in the CFP. Actually, it happened in the CFP now that I think about it. The type of kids playing football in the Bayou vs the kids playing in Ohio/Midwest, particularly in the trenches, are just different. As good as OSU has been, they rarely can come down in the Southeast (include Texas) and annually pull the elite LOS players….this and this alone is the reason for the SECs dominance the past decade…LOS play.

Mario is building our team from the trenches out, and while this isn’t as **** as pulling the elite 5* WRs that OSU frequently lands, ours has a higher ceiling to translate into titles because once the wins start coming, we will then get our share of the elite WRs that spurn us for the OSUs of the world. Plus we will have our LOS talent ready to compete with the Bama/UGA/LSUs of the world who completely dominate teams in the title games where it matters most.
 
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RVACane said:
What are your expectations as to when we should expect to see tangible results from the month of June and what do those results look like to you across the board?
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Reposting this from the Key Visitor thread
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On today's Locked on Canes, Donno highlighted a post from the 247 boards. As of now, Miami has the 3rd most Top 247 visitors coming in June behind only UGA and O$U.​

I'm adding a commit percentage calculator to each visit weekend and overall June visit calculator to the Key Visitor thread for future reference. I've seen people post expected total number of 5* and 4* commits, but can we post guesses at what percentage Mario closes with for June visitors?
 
For 2023 I'm going to go out on the limb and say

55% commit rate for June visitors
45% NLI hit rate for June visitors
 
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lindend said:
Reposting this from the Key Visitor thread
​
On today's Locked on Canes, Donno highlighted a post from the 247 boards. As of now, Miami has the 3rd most Top 247 visitors coming in June behind only UGA and O$U.​

I'm adding a commit percentage calculator to each visit weekend and overall June visit calculator to the Key Visitor thread for future reference. I've seen people post expected total number of 5* and 4* commits, but can we post guesses at what percentage Mario closes with for June visitors?
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Sure, is there something you want me to do?
 
RVACane said:
Sure, is there something you want me to do?
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Probably once we have the final percentages in July/August update the OP with the results.

Until then, get your guesses in and see how close we get to the real number.
 
lindend said:
Probably once we have the final percentages in July/August update the OP with the results.

Until then, get your guesses in and see how close we get to the real number.
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Ok. I need to try to get you Maude privileges. I will seek out the exalted @IndayArtHauz for counsel.
 
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