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Defining June as the Biggest Recruiting Month in Years.

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RVACane said:
Timely as it is, I’ve recently had private conversations with others about the manner in which the hype and hope each off-season can take over expectations leading to angry disappointment on the board.

In a similar vein, I want to try to define expectations - timing, commitments… etc., given recent statements by people who carry some clout in recruiting here.

@DMoney referred to June as the “biggest recruiting month in years…” in his ATM post today. Gaby over on 247 said June 9 may be Miami’s biggest official visit weekend in the 247Sports era…” three days ago in an article he wrote. That’s more than 10 years I believe.

People have asked the question on the board today and I think it’s important to define what this means so that proper expectations are set, particularly as to timing, as I think the expectations on the commits are the 4 and 5 star top 247 and higher type players we’ve been talking about. For me, it means commits rolling in during July and August. It does not mean that we failed if the wave doesn’t happen before then.

We’re going after some of the top recruits in the country. They’re going to take visits and a number of them have visits with high level programs scheduled throughout June, particularly on the weekend of the 23rd.

What are your expectations as to when we should expect to see tangible results from the month of June and what do those results look like to you across the board?
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This is the correct take.... June is the biggest month because we have never had so many high profile visitors in a month. July /August will bear fruit to the harvest in June.
 
lindend said:
For 2023 I'm going to go out on the limb and say

55% commit rate for June visitors
45% NLI hit rate for June visitors
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45% x 42 (uncommitted) = 19 (NLI)

To keep the math simple, and, because I'm a greedy bastid...
I'll go 21 (NLI) of the 42 for a nice, round, 50% clip.
 
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Flo June 1 Two Minute Drill
  • Flo says a MINIMUM of five commits this month (June). He emphasized minimum
  • The whale (5*) trend will start this month.
 
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I appreciate everyone’s contributions to recruiting information, and all the updates and speculation as well as actual information.

I’m of a mind that I really don’t care when people commit whether it’s July or August, or if they announce on signing day, I only care where we stand after the second signing day, once it’s over.

There are too many things to think about, and worry about, so in order to keep a rational state of mind, I will judge when the final results are in, and not before.

Too many people get caught up with the day today recruiting waves, when all that really matters is where we stand at the very end of this year’s recruiting cycle.

It’s OK if people want to hyperventilate day to day, week to week, month to month, over who has committed and who has not, but at the end of the day, it only becomes real when they sign. This isn’t meant as a criticism of people that are really into this, it’s just a different view of recruiting that I have.
 
every commit will get this meme:

ZomboMeme 4059.jpg
 
Last year June treated us beyond well.

We had SEVEN TOP 150 kids commit by end July from June visits -
(Francis, Stafford, Ray Ray, Wayne, Riley, Malik, Rashada)

PLUS another handful of blue chips commits who took June visits but committed later -
(Samson, Acheampong, CJJ, Cormani)

Then you had multiple 3 stars who also took June visits & committed -
(Kinsler, Emory, Pulliam, Mikeska, Lew)
 
Going off last years data, it would be fair to say
AT LEAST 10 blue chips commit to UM due to summer visits.

At least a total of 15 commits come from June visits.
 
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CaneThang2020 said:
For the most part, yes, you are correct. However, all 7th ranked recruiting classes aren’t created equal. Case in point, someone did an average 4yr recruiting ranking on the last few NC teams in CFP. Results were astonishing. Clemson and LSU by far were the two outside the Top 5 and then you Bama a few times, OSU once, UGA once at that time.

My point is that an LSU team with legit coaching with destroy an annual top 5 recruiting class OSU team in the CFP. Actually, it happened in the CFP now that I think about it. The type of kids playing football in the Bayou vs the kids playing in Ohio/Midwest, particularly in the trenches, are just different. As good as OSU has been, they rarely can come down in the Southeast (include Texas) and annually pull the elite LOS players….this and this alone is the reason for the SECs dominance the past decade…LOS play.

Mario is building our team from the trenches out, and while this isn’t as **** as pulling the elite 5* WRs that OSU frequently lands, ours has a higher ceiling to translate into titles because once the wins start coming, we will then get our share of the elite WRs that spurn us for the OSUs of the world. Plus we will have our LOS talent ready to compete with the Bama/UGA/LSUs of the world who completely dominate teams in the title games where it matters most.
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That LSU team was fine in the trenches. But they weren’t dominate.

That team blew everybody away because of the skill talent it had.

2021 UGA got really lucky Bama had the run of skill position talent injuries it did. Because it couldn’t keep up in the SECCG when Bama was healthy.
 
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On tonight's Cane Insight Live, @DMoney, @bradtejeda and @Peter Ariz were talking about closing percentages on 5* players in general. The number being discussed with as a hit rate in the 30's. I believe D$ said staff thought that was a reasonable target for 5* players in general (not necessarily the ones we're after). Thoughts?

I'm now going to be tracking closing percentages for 5*, 4* and 3* in our June visits for comparison purposes to see if in fact its harder to close 5* then lower ranked prospects (at first glance, you'd think it would be).
 
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