Defining June as the Biggest Recruiting Month in Years.

[mossmadness]

At a time where Kirby Smart lists off the recruiting class rankings of his defense to explain why they are so good, it’s silly to argue recruiting class rankings aren’t everything.

They are the ticket you have to get stamped to get into the building. Now you might not do sh*t once you’re in the building, but you’re not even getting in unless you have a high ranking class.

And we see that every year.

Look at Oregon-UGA in 2022.

Oregon was 7th in the 247 Team Talent Calculator. This was a team made up largely of 4 years of Mario recruiting, scouting, and development.

And Georgia blew that team off the field. And after the game Kirby was very direct in saying Oregon just didn’t have the talent that UGA has. It’s a good staff. They did all they could. But the game was won on national signing day.

The divide between what is even a legit NC worthy recruiting class and “will get you 10/11 wins and murdered in the NC” is getting greater and greater today, that even the 7th ranked class probably isn’t good enough if a NC is the goal.

 

[RVACane]

I can think of one reason. $$$.

It’s not always enough. It couldn’t buy us Innis last class.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

There’s issues with those sites but there’s also clear targets in the Top 100 and Top 247 who the top teams would take followed by the next tier who most would take followed by the next tier many would take. If everyone we have is a 3 star gem we have a problem. There are gems but we have to hit on some of the universally recognized studs too.

We have a chance to do that but I don’t buy that the rankings are so horrific that we should cast that aside because we loaded up with a bunch of 3 stars we’re trying to justify as better than everyone else’s 4 and 5 stars. There’s a limit to how much we can do that and be credible in what we’re saying.

Hooray that Russell committed. I don’t think it’ll happen but were we to whiff on the top DT targets visiting in June and people show up in here talking about corrupt rankings and how Kalijah Kancey was a 3 star, I’m gonna go scorched earth on their shilling slurper asses.

But the problem is you're immediately accepting the ranking as legitimate from word one. You're accepting that 4-stars are 4-stars and 3-stars are 3-stars when I am telling you that if you were able to see the boards of coaches you respect and how they rank kids, it would look very different. Lots of 4-star kids would be 3-stars and lots of 3-star kids would be 4-stars, and so on. My point, counselor, is it's the fruit of a poison well. Mario and Zo etc have their own board and those are the kids they target, regardless of where 247 has a kid ranked. Like I said, Cole jumped 700 spots overnight, in May! It's a joke.

I'm pretty **** excited about some of the "3-stars" that Miami took last cycle, and I'd bet that there are plenty of top coaches besides Mario that would laugh at the idea that they were the 700th or 900th best kid or whatever out there, because they fought for them. Again, if you have a guy with Mario's track record identifying and locking up "3-star" kids with some really good offers by April or May, they are probably a lot better than their ranking on average. If you see a Manny Diaz struggle in the cycle and offer a lightly recruited 3-star kid in late November after other targets pick other schools, its completely different.

Here are the kids in the last cycle who were 3-stars when they committed to us:

Bobby Washington (this board was literally accusing him of being Robby's baggage, got his 4* later, we beat AUB, TEX, OK, UT, MISS, L'ville).
Emory Williams (beat UF, FSU, AUB, PITT, WISC, ended up Elite 11 where he did well, an ESPN 4-star top 350, and showed up with an NFL arm and body and had great spring).
Jackson Carver (beat FSU, UF, LSU, AUB... another guy who looked good as an early arrival).
Kaleb Spencer (flipped from OK, beat PSU, LSU, ARK, TENN, VT).
Antonio Tripp (class ambassador from IMG, beat MICH, TAMU, TENN, USCe, VT).
Tommy Kinsler (flipped from UF, beat FSU, TENN, MISS).
Franky Tinilau (held off late rush from Oregon, beat PSU, FSU, AUB, etc).

All but Spencer, who we flipped from Venables and Oklahoma, were summer or earlier commits btw. Guys we wanted and locked up.

Offers >>>>> "rankings" especially early. I trust Mario and his team, especially with Zo, over every website guy combined.

 

[SpikeUM]

But the problem is you're immediately accepting the ranking as legitimate from word one. You're accepting that 4-stars are 4-stars and 3-stars are 3-stars when I am telling you that if you were able to see the boards of coaches you respect and how they rank kids, it would look very different. Lots of 4-star kids would be 3-stars and lots of 3-star kids would be 4-stars, and so on. My point, counselor, is it's the fruit of a poison well. Mario and Zo etc have their own board and those are the kids they target, regardless of where 247 has a kid ranked. Like I said, Cole jumped 700 spots overnight, in May! It's a joke.

I'm pretty **** excited about some of the "3-stars" that Miami took last cycle, and I'd bet that there are plenty of top coaches besides Mario that would laugh at the idea that they were the 700th or 900th best kid or whatever out there, because they fought for them. Again, if you have a guy with Mario's track record identifying and locking up "3-star" kids with some really good offers by April or May, they are probably a lot better than their ranking on average. If you see a Manny Diaz struggle in the cycle and offer a lightly recruited 3-star kid in late November after other targets pick other schools, its completely different.

Here are the kids in the last cycle who were 3-stars when they committed to us:

Bobby Washington (this board was literally accusing him of being Robby's baggage, got his 4* later, we beat AUB, TEX, OK, UT, MISS, L'ville).
Emory Williams (beat UF, FSU, AUB, PITT, WISC, ended up Elite 11 where he did well, an ESPN 4-star top 350, and showed up with an NFL arm and body and had great spring).
Jackson Carver (beat FSU, UF, LSU, AUB... another guy who looked good as an early arrival).
Kaleb Spencer (flipped from OK, beat PSU, LSU, ARK, TENN, VT).
Antonio Tripp (class ambassador from IMG, beat MICH, TAMU, TENN, USCe, VT).
Tommy Kinsler (flipped from UF, beat FSU, TENN, MISS).
Franky Tinilau (held off late rush from Oregon, beat PSU, FSU, AUB, etc).

All but Spencer, who we flipped from Venables and Oklahoma, were summer or earlier commits btw. Guys we wanted and locked up.

Offers >>>>> "rankings" especially early. I trust Mario and his team, especially with Zo, over every website guy combined.

McCoy and Cooper were 3 stars also?

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

McCoy and Cooper were 3 stars also?

Yes sir, both 3-stars in the 2022 class. McCoy was the 109th rated OT, ranked around #750 who had offers from the Big 3 and more.

Cooper was ranked so low I can only estimate what his national ranking would be. He was the 154th OT with an 85 rating. I'd guess he was around 1,500. He started as a true freshman and did well. FYI he had offers from UGA, AUB and USCe. The websites suck.

 

[jrock2332]

I don't think it matters much. It's a long way until the season starts and even longer until signing day. Let's keep working on the here and now and keep building towards the future.

 

[RVACane]

But the problem is you're immediately accepting the ranking as legitimate from word one. You're accepting that 4-stars are 4-stars and 3-stars are 3-stars when I am telling you that if you were able to see the boards of coaches you respect and how they rank kids, it would look very different. Lots of 4-star kids would be 3-stars and lots of 3-star kids would be 4-stars, and so on. My point, counselor, is it's the fruit of a poison well. Mario and Zo etc have their own board and those are the kids they target, regardless of where 247 has a kid ranked. Like I said, Cole jumped 700 spots overnight, in May! It's a joke.

I'm pretty **** excited about some of the "3-stars" that Miami took last cycle, and I'd bet that there are plenty of top coaches besides Mario that would laugh at the idea that they were the 700th or 900th best kid or whatever out there, because they fought for them. Again, if you have a guy with Mario's track record identifying and locking up "3-star" kids with some really good offers by April or May, they are probably a lot better than their ranking on average. If you see a Manny Diaz struggle in the cycle and offer a lightly recruited 3-star kid in late November after other targets pick other schools, its completely different.

Here are the kids in the last cycle who were 3-stars when they committed to us:

Bobby Washington (this board was literally accusing him of being Robby's baggage, got his 4* later, we beat AUB, TEX, OK, UT, MISS, L'ville).
Emory Williams (beat UF, FSU, AUB, PITT, WISC, ended up Elite 11 where he did well, an ESPN 4-star top 350, and showed up with an NFL arm and body and had great spring).
Jackson Carver (beat FSU, UF, LSU, AUB... another guy who looked good as an early arrival).
Kaleb Spencer (flipped from OK, beat PSU, LSU, ARK, TENN, VT).
Antonio Tripp (class ambassador from IMG, beat MICH, TAMU, TENN, USCe, VT).
Tommy Kinsler (flipped from UF, beat FSU, TENN, MISS).
Franky Tinilau (held off late rush from Oregon, beat PSU, FSU, AUB, etc).

All but Spencer, who we flipped from Venables and Oklahoma, were summer or earlier commits btw. Guys we wanted and locked up.

Offers >>>>> "rankings" especially early. I trust Mario and his team, especially with Zo, over every website guy combined.

I don’t have an issue with those takes or the ones this year to an extent. In fact, I’d prefer that he takes them early so I know that’s mostly the floor and developmental upside guys as opposed to scrambling for plan C’s and D’s.

What I am saying is that you can’t straight throw out the rankings when looking at your class and sign a bunch of hidden gems because our staff is smarter than others. There’s a blue chip ratio out there that’s been pretty indicative of who wins, especially with competent coaching. That ratio isn’t driven by the hidden gems.

It’s not happening but were we to whiff on these top DL targets and people start admonishing others about kalijah Kancey being a 3 star, I’m going to lose my mind along with a bunch of others on here.

So here’s the story….

At DT, land 2-3 of:
David Stone
Justin Scott
KamarionFranklin
Artavious Jones
Dylan Williams
Ayden Breland
LJ McRae

… And there’s no argument.

 

[01Canes]

We all know that Cristobal can recruit at an elite level but there are 4 position that will determine his ability to succeed here. QB, WR, DT and CB.

Your post was great and I really wanted to emphasize this portion of it.

I know it was shared on the board around the time that Noland committed to OSU that we had no traction with any other top QB recruit at the time. I’m going to assume and hope that a complete turnaround on offense coupled with NIL could potentially change someone’s mind during the season.

Maybe the staff is trying to work in silence on flipping a premier QB, which would explain the complete lack of smoke publicly linking us to any quarterback ever since we were the runner-up for Noland.

Whether we land a premier QB1 this cycle or fail to do so will likely determine how the WR class shapes up, especially with the elites like Wingo and Smith. The programs we’re competing against for that caliber of WR have much different QB situations than ours and “we’ll grab someone from the portal to play QB, so don’t worry” isn’t a compelling rebuttal to negative recruiting tactics when you’re swimming with the sharks and fighting over 5* WR’s.

 

[supacane]

At a time where Kirby Smart lists off the recruiting class rankings of his defense to explain why they are so good, it’s silly to argue recruiting class rankings aren’t everything.

They are the ticket you have to get stamped to get into the building. Now you might not do sh*t once you’re in the building, but you’re not even getting in unless you have a high ranking class.

And we see that every year.

Look at Oregon-UGA in 2022.

Oregon was 7th in the 247 Team Talent Calculator. This was a team made up largely of 4 years of Mario recruiting, scouting, and development.

And Georgia blew that team off the field. And after the game Kirby was very direct in saying Oregon just didn’t have the talent that UGA has. It’s a good staff. They did all they could. But the game was won on national signing day.

The divide between what is even a legit NC worthy recruiting class and “will get you 10/11 wins and murdered in the NC” is getting greater and greater today, that even the 7th ranked class probably isn’t good enough if a NC is the goal.

LSU all world national title team, previous 5 classes. Were 2019 #5, 2018 #15, 2017 #7 ,2016 #2, 2015 #5.
Im not disagreeing with what you are saying but if you get top 7 classes, but nail the evaluation pick ups like The Bobby Washingtons, Pullian, Frenkie, Kinsler etc. You can not only compete but beat these teams as long as you are getting elite players by attributes and rankings and attitude in the trenches.

UGA is not doing anthing we didnt do, USC didnt do, Saban turnt up and did. College football is cyclical soon as people claim no one will ever beat a team someone does it.

 

[DTP]

Here’s the thing. The actual football season has been mostly disappointment for fans for a while now so the only thing keeping a lot of people around is the off season hype. Personally I’m more interested in what happens on the actual field come fall. No matter what happens in June, if this team lays an egg in September it won’t matter.

 

[Gi0logy]

But the problem is you're immediately accepting the ranking as legitimate from word one. You're accepting that 4-stars are 4-stars and 3-stars are 3-stars when I am telling you that if you were able to see the boards of coaches you respect and how they rank kids, it would look very different. Lots of 4-star kids would be 3-stars and lots of 3-star kids would be 4-stars, and so on. My point, counselor, is it's the fruit of a poison well. Mario and Zo etc have their own board and those are the kids they target, regardless of where 247 has a kid ranked. Like I said, Cole jumped 700 spots overnight, in May! It's a joke.

I'm pretty **** excited about some of the "3-stars" that Miami took last cycle, and I'd bet that there are plenty of top coaches besides Mario that would laugh at the idea that they were the 700th or 900th best kid or whatever out there, because they fought for them. Again, if you have a guy with Mario's track record identifying and locking up "3-star" kids with some really good offers by April or May, they are probably a lot better than their ranking on average. If you see a Manny Diaz struggle in the cycle and offer a lightly recruited 3-star kid in late November after other targets pick other schools, its completely different.

Here are the kids in the last cycle who were 3-stars when they committed to us:

Bobby Washington (this board was literally accusing him of being Robby's baggage, got his 4* later, we beat AUB, TEX, OK, UT, MISS, L'ville).
Emory Williams (beat UF, FSU, AUB, PITT, WISC, ended up Elite 11 where he did well, an ESPN 4-star top 350, and showed up with an NFL arm and body and had great spring).
Jackson Carver (beat FSU, UF, LSU, AUB... another guy who looked good as an early arrival).
Kaleb Spencer (flipped from OK, beat PSU, LSU, ARK, TENN, VT).
Antonio Tripp (class ambassador from IMG, beat MICH, TAMU, TENN, USCe, VT).
Tommy Kinsler (flipped from UF, beat FSU, TENN, MISS).
Franky Tinilau (held off late rush from Oregon, beat PSU, FSU, AUB, etc).

All but Spencer, who we flipped from Venables and Oklahoma, were summer or earlier commits btw. Guys we wanted and locked up.

Offers >>>>> "rankings" especially early. I trust Mario and his team, especially with Zo, over every website guy combined.

I get your point but I’m not sure how many of those guys were actually getting full court press from other programs.

Emory, Carver, Kaleb (yes I know we flipped him), Tripp, and Kinsler seemed like they were getting mild interest from some of those programs. But I’m just not sure we were fending off programs left and right for each kid.

Obviously there were programs pushing like UF for Kinsler and OU for Kaleb. But IMO, you’re overstating the interest level from the programs you’re listing there.

With that said, it’s hard to truly gauge that aspect of recruiting sometimes so you could be right.

 

[SpikeUM]

I get your point but I’m not sure how many of those guys were actually getting full court press from other programs.

Emory, Carver, Kaleb (yes I know we flipped him), Tripp, and Kinsler seemed like they were getting mild interest from some of those programs. But I’m just not sure we were fending off programs left and right for each kid.

Obviously there were programs pushing like UF for Kinsler and OU for Kaleb. But IMO, you’re overstating the interest level from the programs you’re listing there.

With that said, it’s hard to truly gauge that aspect of recruiting sometimes so you could be right.

Respectfully, my sense is you are missing his point, which is we are taking 3 star kids not because we are desperate or striking out with higher ranked recruits, but because we see potential in them, and thus far the early results are very promising.

 

[BS85]

We need word limits, I'm not reading these long *** posts

 

[RVACane]

LSU all world national title team, previous 5 classes. Were 2019 #5, 2018 #15, 2017 #7 ,2016 #2, 2015 #5.
Im not disagreeing with what you are saying but if you get top 7 classes, but nail the evaluation pick ups like The Bobby Washingtons, Pullian, Frenkie, Kinsler etc. You can not only compete but beat these teams as long as you are getting elite players by attributes and rankings and attitude in the trenches.

UGA is not doing anthing we didnt do, USC didnt do, Saban turnt up and did. College football is cyclical soon as people claim no one will ever beat a team someone does it.

I agree and think this is the key way to view it. These evaluation picks are difference makers in this competitive landscape. We still have to hit on a lot of our top-ish targets. We won’t get all of our top targets and we can’t rely on a class with few of them either.

 

[JgDaCane]

It’s not always enough. It couldn’t buy us Innis last class.

No it's not you're absolutely right. It just feels nice to say after years of not being able to say it

 

[Angry Ibis]

Good job, good effort @RVACane

It won’t work, but you’ll be remembered for this

He’s set up to fail by the management if we are shooting straight… isn’t the first time, won’t be the last…

But it’ll be clicktastic and that’s what drives message boards

Let’s ******* win so the board is driven by that analysis vs bull****

 

[Angry Ibis]

Respectfully, my sense is you are missing his point, which is we are taking 3 star kids not because we are desperate or striking out with higher ranked recruits, but because we see potential in them, and thus far the early results are very promising.

But he’d also trust Mario to tell him the sky is blue during a down pour at night…

 

[RVACane]

But he’d also trust Mario to tell him the sky is blue during a down pour at night…

That’s where I have an issue. I don’t have a problem taking the gems early. But if we whiff on what’s universally recognized as the top talent, as supported by commitable offer lists, it’s going to go very poorly in here when people start arguing that they trust the staff on our plan B’s and C’s and not the recruiting nerds. The recruiting nerds also reorganize the rankings lists to reflect offers as well.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

I don’t have an issue with those takes or the ones this year to an extent. In fact, I’d prefer that he takes them early so I know that’s mostly the floor and developmental upside guys as opposed to scrambling for plan C’s and D’s.

What I am saying is that you can’t straight throw out the rankings when looking at your class and sign a bunch of hidden gems because our staff is smarter than others. There’s a blue chip ratio out there that’s been pretty indicative of who wins, especially with competent coaching. That ratio isn’t driven by the hidden gems.

It’s not happening but were we to whiff on these top DL targets and people start admonishing others about kalijah Kancey being a 3 star, I’m going to lose my mind along with a bunch of others on here.

So here’s the story….

At DT, land 2-3 of:
David Stone
Justin Scott
KamarionFranklin
Artavious Jones
Dylan Williams
Ayden Breland
LJ McRae

… And there’s no argument.

I get your point. If you use what I wrote about the raffle girls being able to spot the 5-stars, it supports what I am trying to say. Of course there is going to be some correlation between the rankings and the best classes. For there not to be the rankings would have to be completely random and not based of football ability. Even with their amateur scouting abilities and corruption, the better classes are going to be ranked higher.

You don't have an issues with us taking the guys who were ranked by the websites. That's because you believe they were good evals and are good players. Well, we sure took enough of them, right? That shows that maybe a significant chunk of our class was mis-ranked.

As for the "bluechip ratio," its a complete farce. You've read my posts about how they flood the market with kids with 4-star ratings to give themselves 10x as many chances as they should to "get it right." How 32 kids projected to be first rounders as well as 200 kids projected to be UFA's are all "blue chips." Please don't make me re-type it lol.

 

[FrancisSawyer]

Everyone do this exercise with me:

NFL teams/GMs, who get to draft fully developed adults with years of ESPN/FOX etc. ten-camera game tape, practice film, wonderlics, S2's, combines, pro days, private work outs, interviews, etc, all have wildly divergent draft boards. And that's just the FIRST ROUND. Once you get past the first 30-40 players, it gets even more divergent. Some teams have a kid in the 3rd round that others don't even have on their boards. We're talking about complete difference of opinion. And they only have to really evaluate maybe 500 guys for a ~250 pick draft.

Now compare that to CFB. Where you have much more limited resources (yes, even UGA and Bama, and even today) to evaluate 16 and 17 year old kids that are still growing and learning, with limited experience, tons of position changes, who play against various different levels of competition with extremely different levels of coaching. You don't have to scout 150 colleges, you have to scout like 3000 HS's in various podunk towns all over and try to figure out what that quick, skinny, bean-pole kid is going to be in three years.

How divergent do you think each teams "board" is going to look? Once you get past the first 40-50 players where there is probably still only 70-75% alignment, it all goes haywire.

Now imagine you have to throw your cards in with just one coach, one staff, one board. Go off their opinion. You invite Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, Jim Harbaugh, Lincoln Riley, Mario Cristobal, Mike Norvell, Brian Kelly, Hugh Freeze, Dan Lanning... and Andrew Ivins, who isn't a coach or a trained scout, into a room and you have to pick one guy's board to go with, even though you know they will be drastically different.

But then I tell you that you don't get to pick, that you have to go with Andrew Ivins, you don't get to use an actual CFB program's board. And then I tell you, pssstttt... not only are those rankings compiled by a bunch of non-scouts/ non-coaches, but there is irrefutable concrete evidence that they are CORRUPT. That they favor kids who comes to their camps, big subscription bases, kids who tweet a lot and self-promote and give interviews, and they've even been catfished and have ranked imaginary players.

That's the 247/On3 etc rankings most of you treat as accurate. That's why I laugh at the star system and the entertainment rankings. It's amateurish entertainment, nothing less.

Have fun with them, and sure, reference them because its all we got, but never let them upset you. And never treat them as credible.

Brother, you just continue to outdo yourself. Excellent post!