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***THE DEFINITIVE PLAYOFF THREAD***

OrangeBowlMagic said:
One bad loss shouldn't disqualify you, but a TERRIBLE loss (Oklahoma) and another really bad loss (Vanderbilt) combined with a 3rd OK loss (Tennessee) absolutely should.

Put South Carolina in over Bama. Lost by 3 early to LSU when their QB got hurt. Did get killed by Ole Miss, but Ole Miss is also in consideration for one of these spots. 2 point loss at Bama. Won 6 games in a row to end the year. But they didn't lose to anyone horrific, and the one game they did lose to an average team, their QB got hurt and they were up 17.

I could stomach seeing us behind them tonight. But not Bama. Bama is literally only in this discussion because they're Bama, which is bull****. Swap Bama and South Carolina's resume and NOBODY is pushing for South Carolina to get in. Not a soul.
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Miami fans pushing for a team that lost straight up to another one to get into a playoff format?

Oh Yeah Reaction GIF by NBA
 
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I do believe that there's an outside chance SMU gets pushed out IF they got blown out by Clemson (which I see as extremely unlikely).

But other than that, we need to be #11 and SMU to win.
 
Another thing I've been thinking about here......the main argument against us is we haven't beaten any ranked teams/anybody good.

In this week's AP poll, Louisville is essentially 27th (they only rank 25 teams but they received the 2nd most votes of anyone else, Duke is essentially 28th, Florida is essentially 33rd.

I don't think the committee will put a 7-5 gator team in at #25, but would they put Duke and/or Louisville in there? That gives us 2 ranked wins.

Here is who is 20-25 in the AP Poll. I wonder if the committee leaves any of these teams out for Louisville or Dook

21. Illinois 9-3
22. Mizzou 9-3
23. Syracuse 9-3
24. Army 10-1
25. Memphis 10-2

Army wasn't ranked in the CFP last week, Memphis has never been ranked by them, Illinois was 23rd and Mizzou 21, so I doubt they fall out. Kansas State was 24th and they lost. A&M should fall out.

If you watch tonight, as they go backwards from 25, keep an eye out for Duke and/or Louisville. If either, or ideally both of them are there at the back end, that'd be huge for us and something the committee can point to when they justify us being ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Draftkings just dropped Miami from +800 to make the playoff to +700 in the last hour.

South Carolina's odds have also shifted dramatically, from +370 yesterday afternoon to now +700.

Bama still a favorite at -250. Ole Miss has not moved, they're still the longest shot at +2200.

I still don't get the Bama love other than "they're Bama", but whatever. Maybe if Texas absolutely blasts UGA, it makes that win look worse and they do move again next week, but chances are slim to none on that. If they stick them at #11 tonight, they're in with a SMU win. Would be really gross. They lost to a 6-6 team by 3 scores where they scored THREE points literally 10 days ago.
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Our odds are down to +650 on draftkings now. If this really starts to drop around 6/630, it could mean good news.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Another thing I've been thinking about here......the main argument against us is we haven't beaten any ranked teams/anybody good.

In this week's AP poll, Louisville is essentially 27th (they only rank 25 teams but they received the 2nd most votes of anyone else, Duke is essentially 28th, Florida is essentially 33rd.

I don't think the committee will put a 7-5 gator team in at #25, but would they put Duke and/or Louisville in there? That gives us 2 ranked wins.

Here is who is 20-25 in the AP Poll. I wonder if the committee leaves any of these teams out for Louisville or Dook

21. Illinois 9-3
22. Mizzou 9-3
23. Syracuse 9-3
24. Army 10-1
25. Memphis 10-2

Army wasn't ranked in the CFP last week, Memphis has never been ranked by them, Illinois was 23rd and Mizzou 21, so I doubt they fall out. Kansas State was 24th and they lost. A&M should fall out.

If you watch tonight, as they go backwards from 25, keep an eye out for Duke and/or Louisville. If either, or ideally both of them are there at the back end, that'd be huge for us and something the committee can point to when they justify us being ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams.
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This is the problem with the “ranked wins” argument. Mizzou has done nothing to show anyone they’re better than Syracuse, Duke, Louisville, etc., but because they started the year out ranked high they’re seen as a win worth using in an argument because they have a number next to their name when the reality is they’ve been boat raced whenever they play a good team.
 
TwentySix said:
This is the problem with the “ranked wins” argument. Mizzou has done nothing to show anyone they’re better than Syracuse, Duke, Louisville, etc., but because they started the year out ranked high they’re seen as a win worth using in an argument because they have a number next to their name when the reality is they’ve been boat raced whenever they play a good team.
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Correct. And throughout this process, the committee has conveniently left them towards the bottom of the rankings to give the teams pasting them a "ranked win". Let's see it work the other way. Can Duke and Louisville get in there?

Side note: This is all so ******* stupid that we have to get THIS analytical about it, but gahd **** would it have been gigantic for GT to just win that game Friday night.
 
I still don't see why IF you're going to argue Bama can be ranked ahead of us, why it's so crazy to argue we should be ranked ahead of Indiana who played two teams above 0.500 all year and was blown out in one of them - Ohio State - a team that just picked up their 2nd loss of the season and is going to drop to like 7th in the rankings making their loss worse thus making that loss worse than it was before. Indiana in B1G play literally has only beaten one team above 0.500 - Michigan and that was at home 20-15. Indianas wins in the B1G consists of teams that have literally gone a combined 6-18 the last 3 weeks of the season lol.

I'm just saying. If a 3 loss Bama can have such a good argument over a 2 loss Miami, well apply that same argument to Miami over Indiana.
 
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Is it possible that Miami could be behind Alabama tonight but Georgia gets blown out by Texas in the SEC Championship, thus weakening the strength of Alabama's best win making the committee reconsider Alabama versus Miami?
 
Dream School said:
Is it possible that Miami could be behind Alabama tonight but Georgia gets blown out by Texas in the SEC Championship, thus weakening the strength of Alabama's best win making the committee reconsider Alabama versus Miami?
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Anything is theoretically possible because the committee makes it up as they go week by week since they need to be able to talk about the rankings for a 30 minute tv show but I doubt anything would break against the SEC
 
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Stumbled across Around the Horn and some fatty said to get noticed Miami has to schedule non conference games against the SEC and play well, and since they didn’t, shouldn’t be considered.

Would love to hear @flagator86 opinion as he’s favored to be here over @The Franchise.

Two non-sensical statements ^
 
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TwentySix said:
10 would be ******* incredible. (Won’t happen)
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I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boise stay at 11 and the “12th team” to actually be #10.

If Boise moves up to 10 and UNLV wins, they would have to either keep them in the field and have 2 mountain west teams or “punish” them for losing their conference championship. If they stay at 11 and UNLV wins, they’d be knocked out by UNLV and the big 12 champ.
 
In a perfect world I’d rather have SMU beat Clemson, BUT let’s say Clemson beats SMU are we so sure that they would take a 2 loss SMU over a 2 loss Miami? Because I’m not. At the end of the day SMU doesn’t move the needle and I think they actually would choose us over them in that scenario.
 
DoctorKrazey said:
In a perfect world I’d rather have SMU beat Clemson, BUT let’s say Clemson beats SMU are we so sure that they would take a 2 loss SMU over a 2 loss Miami? Because I’m not. At the end of the day SMU doesn’t move the needle and I think they actually would choose us over them in that scenario.
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if were 10/11, were in unless Clemson wins next weekend.

if we do backdoor in, Mario better fire Guidry before the game
 
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