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***THE DEFINITIVE PLAYOFF THREAD***

Alabama went from +100 to -260 to get in, just over 24 hours of line movement.

This one is pretty wraps, unfortunately. Our only saving grace is that SCar has been getting pushed out further. But the media teasing ND vs Bama Friday night in south bend trumps all.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
Alabama went from +100 to -260 to get in, just over 24 hours of line movement.

This one is pretty wraps, unfortunately. Our only saving grace is that SCar has been getting pushed out further. But the media teasing ND vs Bama Friday night in south bend trumps all.
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I don't think that's indicative of what's going to happen. That's simply squares like you and me who assume the committee is going to bend over and take it from behind by Bama. Which probably will happen, but it's not like sharps have inside information on any of this.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I don't think that's indicative of what's going to happen. That's simply squares like you and me who assume the committee is going to bend over and take it from behind by Bama. Which probably will happen, but it's not like sharps have inside information on any of this.
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As someone that works in the industry, I can assure you it’s sharp money. Public money doesn’t move a line like this in a short time frame. We would stand on our business if it wasn’t respected money.

But sharps are still wrong 45% of the time, so we shall see today.
 
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MizCane said:
If Clemson wins we are out at I bet South Carolina takes the spot since they just beat Clemson at Clemson and are arguably the hottest team right now especially with that QB. They are a tough out.
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If Clemson wins, there is no spot for any of the bubble teams.

Oregon (presumed B10 champ)
Texas ($EC)
Boise (MWC)
Clemson (ACC)
ASU (B12)
Notre Dame
Penn State
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Tennessee
SMU
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Just don’t be so sure about Alabama.

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Trust me - if it was up to me, I’d have Ole Miss ahead of Bama, Miami ahead of both. Ole Miss has a better resume than Bama and so does Miami. More wins against bowl teams, more impressive wins, and the losses aren’t as bad.

The only thing propping up Bama is one good half of football against Georgia, and the brand name. But, it carries weight, and we got hit immediately on their yes price.

FD also had the line of over under 3.5 SEC teams to get in at -400 yes. Looks like they took it down this morning.

Miami opened 8/1 on yes getting in, got lengthened out to 10/1, sharp money came in to push it to 6/1 ish, but then this morning lengthened out again to +750. Bouncing a lot, but ultimately not as much money as what bama is getting.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Just don’t be so sure about Alabama.

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Hale sucks but this is what I've been saying, Bama SHoULd be below ole miss... I'd take ole miss to win head to head, pretty sure Vegas would too and all the metrics say they're better, resumes are at least equal. That said I 100% expect it to be bama ahead of us both because that's the way this **** works every year.


Side note, why the **** does Indiana get a free pass? They have the same resume as Army, if you want a feel good story I'd rather see the service academy in than a 4th big ten team that's going to get smoked.
 
AutoCANE said:
If Clemson wins, there is no spot for any of the bubble teams.

Oregon (presumed B10 champ)
Texas ($EC)
Boise (MWC)
Clemson (ACC)
ASU (B12)
Notre Dame
Penn State
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Tennessee
SMU
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Georgia will be a 3 loss team if they lose to Texas. Hopefully the ACC will be vocal about 3 loss teams.
Playoff rankings tonight…ESPN 7:00 PM. It will change after conference games Saturday. Chaos will ensue….
 
I have seen the committee make changes on the very last ranking without any action that previous week to justify it. Rather it was another look at the totality of the season.

Whoever is #11 right now will have a whole week of scrutiny as to whether or not they are truly the best remaining team. I could see a case where #11 this week is not #11 next week.
 
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Committee has been VERY different with voting this year. They have treated bad losses just as much as great wins.

This means Miami will have advantage with losses. They have also been very good with H2H and common opponents. Since UM didn’t play Bama or Ole Miss, this would come down to common opponents.

Ole Miss: @UF
Miami wins by 24
Ole Miss loses

Bama: USF
Miami wins by 35 on road
Bama wins by 26 at home
 
rascon said:
I have seen the committee make changes on the very last ranking without any action that previous week to justify it. Rather it was another look at the totality of the season.

Whoever is #11 right now will have a whole week of scrutiny as to whether or not they are truly the best remaining team. I could see a case where #11 this week is not #11 next week.
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Think the ONLY way that happens, is if UGA beats the **** out of TEX and that makes Bama win better. If the game is close, #11 won’t move down
 
Betting markets make me think it’s a wrap. It shouldn’t be that lopsided. But alas. We don’t deserve it anyway. Neither does Bama though. Go Clemson sigh
 
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Canenok66 said:
We put ourselves in a really tough spot. I was indifferent on us making the playoffs…. But IMO in order to avoid Opt Outs Miami has to be in the playoffs! And yes, on both.
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I’m on record we saying don’t deserve to be in with our atrocious defense but that said Ole Miss and more importantly Bama have no say in this or complaint. Once Bama got curbed stomped by OU they should be done. Then Ole Miss losing to an awful UK team and meh UF team.
 
CBurrr93 said:
Betting markets make me think it’s a wrap. It shouldn’t be that lopsided. But alas. We don’t deserve it anyway. Neither does Bama though. Go Clemson sigh
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That’s what’s got me worried too. However, last year wasn’t FSU favored over Alabama on the betting sites up until like the half hour before the final rankings reveal show? That’s my recollection
 
Cribby said:
I’m on record we saying don’t deserve to be in with our atrocious defense but that said Ole Miss and more importantly Bama have no say in this or complaint. Once Bama got curbed stomped by OU they should be done. Then Ole Miss losing to an awful UK team and meh UF team.
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Both our loses were close and we scored a lot of points…..hope
 
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