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***THE DEFINITIVE PLAYOFF THREAD***

OrangeBowlMagic said:
The math is there, that's what I'm trying to convey. This is very straightforward. If SMU beats Clemson on Saturday night, one of Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss, or South Carolina is getting into the playoff. Period. There is no ambiguity here at all. It's as cut and dry as it can be.

The question is, of those 4 teams, which one is ranked highest tonight? Whichever one is ranked highest tonight, those numbers will not move between now and Sunday, because none of those teams play any other games. So we need to be ranked ahead of those 3 other teams to have a shot.
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I gotcha. The math comment was a bad choice of words. I just don't see them putting Miami in over Bama who in your scenario is mostly what I'm saying. Bama will be ahead of Miami tonight and maybe even South Carolina as they've won 6 in a row.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I've seen so much speculation and misinformation on here and on the internet, it's driving me crazy, so I wanted to put something together for you guys that I believe is essentially factual.

First of all, IMO (and I think this is probably 99.9% correct), 11 spots are locked down. In no particular order:

Oregon
Penn State
Ohio State
Indiana
UGA
Texas
Tennessee
Notre Dame
SMU
Big 12 champ winner (Arizona State vs Iowa State winner)
Group of 5 champ winner (Boise State vs UNLV winner)

No matter what happens on Saturday, these 11 spots are locked. You can argue SMU if they lose, but I think they're in regardless. The committee has said every week you're not going to be punished for making a conference championship, and I agree. So I think they're in, win or lose.

So, what does this mean? It means, IF SMU BEATS CLEMSON, there will be 1 more team that gets in. The pool for that team is almost certainly Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.

None of those teams play on Saturday, meaning however they're ranked tonight is likely how they will be ranked on Sunday when all this is finalized. Also remember, the Big 12 leader, which is currently Arizona State, is going to be ranked OUTSIDE the Top 12 this week, but they are guaranteed a spot, meaning the last team in the field when the rankings are unveiled tonight will be ranked #11. THIS IS THE SPOT MIAMI NEEDS, OR IT'S OVER. Again, Miami needs to be #11 or better tonight to have a shot at the playoffs. If we're #12 or lower, that means at least one of Alabama, USCe, or Ole Miss is ahead of us, and we won't jump them next week.

One final thing, even if we are #11 tonight, we MUST have SMU beat Clemson on Saturday night. If Clemson wins that game, they are in the field, and as I said above, SMU likely stays in as well, meaning that pool of Miami, Bama, USCe, and Ole Miss would ALL be out. Those "bubble" teams are all rooting bigly for SMU to beat Clemson. If Clemson wins, we are not making the field.

So, we need 2 things to happen. BOTH of these need to happen, or we are out:

1. We need to be ranked 11th or better tonight.
2. We need SMU to beat Clemson Saturday night.

If both of those things happen, we make the playoff. If one or both do not, we're out.

Let me know if you disagree with any of this, but I don't see how you can. I think this is about as cut and dry as you can have it at this point. We need to be ahead of all of the 3 loss SEC teams tonight, and we need SMU to keep Clemson from stealing a bid this weekend.
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Great post. I think it comes to whether the Good wins or bad losses matter more. IMO, and I think the committee has show. They agree, the losses matter more. Our losses are a combined 9 points, on the road, to solid teams. And it’s not like we had duds in those games. GT we were schemed out with TOP, and Syracuse just scored more than we could.

The committee has also shown they have been more favorable to us, especially compared to other polls. I also think if we get in, we are #11. A strong possibility of matching up vs ND, which would be big for viewership. Boise State isn’t making a run. Cam Ward will be a Heisman finalist. Hard to turn him and the #1 offense in the country away for a bama team that score 3 against a bad team.
 
kccanefan said:
I gotcha. The math comment was a bad choice of words. I just don't see them putting Miami in over Bama who in your scenario is mostly what I'm saying. Bama will be ahead of Miami tonight and maybe even South Carolina as they've won 6 in a row.
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Gotcha. Yeah, that's definitely possible. But we'll all find out tonight. We gotta be 11 or better or we can get ready for the Taxslayer Bowl with half our team out.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Gotcha. Yeah, that's definitely possible. But we'll all find out tonight. We gotta be 11 or better or we can get ready for the Taxslayer Bowl with half our team out.
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I would say it's more probable. The things that I believe is worth more of our time to worry about

1) Will they fire Guidry
2) How will Emory and the younger guys look in the bowl game
3) Portal Additions since recruiting has went to ****
 
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kccanefan said:
I would say it's more probable. The things that I believe is worth more of our time to worry about

1) Will they fire Guidry
2) How will Emory and the younger guys look in the bowl game
3) Portal Additions since recruiting has went to ****
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1. Yes

The rest we can worry about once we’re definitively in or out of the playoffs.
 
gacaneaddict said:
I know the media loves SEC and Alabama, but has the committee shown that much SEC bias thus far? I think the committee is going to hold that 21 point loss at OU against Alabama.
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If anything, the committee has shown Miami as much love as anyone else.

When we lost to GT, everyone said for sure we’d fall to 15th or worse. We fell to 9th. NOBODY on this board and very few nationally thought we’d be in the top 10.

We went to 8 after the bye, then to 6th after wake, still ahead of UGA at #7.

I’m sure we’ll be disappointed after tonight because such is life as a Miami supporter, but the committee has consistently had Miami higher than consensus both on this board and nationally.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I've seen so much speculation and misinformation on here and on the internet, it's driving me crazy, so I wanted to put something together for you guys that I believe is essentially factual.

First of all, IMO (and I think this is probably 99.9% correct), 11 spots are locked down. In no particular order:

Oregon
Penn State
Ohio State
Indiana
UGA
Texas
Tennessee
Notre Dame
SMU
Big 12 champ winner (Arizona State vs Iowa State winner)
Group of 5 champ winner (Boise State vs UNLV winner)

No matter what happens on Saturday, these 11 spots are locked. You can argue SMU if they lose, but I think they're in regardless. The committee has said every week you're not going to be punished for making a conference championship, and I agree. So I think they're in, win or lose.

So, what does this mean? It means, IF SMU BEATS CLEMSON, there will be 1 more team that gets in. The pool for that team is almost certainly Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.

None of those teams play on Saturday, meaning however they're ranked tonight is likely how they will be ranked on Sunday when all this is finalized. Also remember, the Big 12 leader, which is currently Arizona State, is going to be ranked OUTSIDE the Top 12 this week, but they are guaranteed a spot, meaning the last team in the field when the rankings are unveiled tonight will be ranked #11. THIS IS THE SPOT MIAMI NEEDS, OR IT'S OVER. Again, Miami needs to be #11 or better tonight to have a shot at the playoffs. If we're #12 or lower, that means at least one of Alabama, USCe, or Ole Miss is ahead of us, and we won't jump them next week.

One final thing, even if we are #11 tonight, we MUST have SMU beat Clemson on Saturday night. If Clemson wins that game, they are in the field, and as I said above, SMU likely stays in as well, meaning that pool of Miami, Bama, USCe, and Ole Miss would ALL be out. Those "bubble" teams are all rooting bigly for SMU to beat Clemson. If Clemson wins, we are not making the field.

So, we need 2 things to happen. BOTH of these need to happen, or we are out:

1. We need to be ranked 11th or better tonight.
2. We need SMU to beat Clemson Saturday night.

If both of those things happen, we make the playoff. If one or both do not, we're out.

Let me know if you disagree with any of this, but I don't see how you can. I think this is about as cut and dry as you can have it at this point. We need to be ahead of all of the 3 loss SEC teams tonight, and we need SMU to keep Clemson from stealing a bid this weekend.
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All your points are good but I will say one thing that should trump everything else in who should make the last playoff spot. This has nothing to do with any bias either.

NO TEAM WITH 3 LOSSES SHOULD EVER MAKE THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF. IT DOESNT MATTER WHAT CONFERENCE YOU ARE IN.

End of story!
 
CANEFAN83 said:
All your points are good but I will say one thing that should trump everything else in who should make the last playoff spot. This has nothing to do with any bias either.

NO TEAM WITH 3 LOSSES SHOULD EVER MAKE THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF. IT DOESNT MATTER WHAT CONFERENCE YOU ARE IN.

End of story!
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unfortunately, because we couldn't stop a nosebleed, there will be a 3, and possibly a 4 loss team making the playoff. You watch. If Clemson wins, you'll see.
 
kccanefan said:
I think your last point was the original reason I responded. The scenario of us being in is extremely unlikely. So why get your hopes up.
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I disagree that it’s extremely unlikely. As I’ve said several times, there are several people who think Miami will be #11 tonight. Regardless, it’s a college football ranking. I’m not gonna kick my dog and jump off my roof if Miami is 12 or 13 tonight. I just want people here who have interest in this to understand the full picture, that’s all.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
If anything, the committee has shown Miami as much love as anyone else.

When we lost to GT, everyone said for sure we’d fall to 15th or worse. We fell to 9th. NOBODY on this board and very few nationally thought we’d be in the top 10.

We went to 8 after the bye, then to 6th after wake, still ahead of UGA at #7.

I’m sure we’ll be disappointed after tonight because such is life as a Miami supporter, but the committee has consistently had Miami higher than consensus both on this board and nationally.
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They’ve been wanting us to be in it all year. We and Cam are amazing for ratings if it happens

I’m sure on Saturday some of them were looking around like “you’re killing me smalls”
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I disagree that it’s extremely unlikely. As I’ve said several times, there are several people who think Miami will be #11 tonight. Regardless, it’s a college football ranking. I’m not gonna kick my dog and jump off my roof if Miami is 12 or 13 tonight. I just want people here who have interest in this to understand the full picture, that’s all.
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It seems as if there is support swinging towards Miami

Also, if you’re going around kicking things, you can kick Guidry and Stewart Mandel

 
If Clemson wins we are out at I bet South Carolina takes the spot since they just beat Clemson at Clemson and are arguably the hottest team right now especially with that QB. They are a tough out.
 
What time do the rankings come out? Fck the AP voters for normalizing Bama over Miami btw
 
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