Tell me why Wisconsin, Michigan, and UNC...

[RickyDaKing]

Not allowed to be called Canes fans.

We no question are going to win 10 games this season...
The only people who don't think so, are scary *** Canes fans who are weak, timid & afraid of success.

 

[Tad Footeball]

I really don't understand reporters picking us at 8 wins. We lost Scott, Burns and Bush. That's it. We won 4 games last year with a TE coach and they see no improvement? Sure they say we'll be better and then still pick 8 games. Looking at you Porter.

Sent from my Z970 using Tapatalk

Makes no sense to me how anyone who calls himself a football fan or reporter could go into this season expecting us to have the same record we had last year.

Not only were we coachless for half the season, but the toxicity surrounding the program was unprecedented in history. The players were completely beat down and unmotivated by the circus that UM had allowed to continue.

We have one of the best QBs in college football, yet no one wants to account for that huge advantage.

The same idiot talking heads will come back from the previous segment of saying "ALL you need is a good QB to win at this level...." and then will do predictions and have us winning like 7 games as "Mark Richt tries to right the ship in Miami...". These dolts would be jerking each other off if ANY SEC school had a junior QB like Kaaya. Jesuchristo, they'd be dark-horsing Arky as a 2nd SEC team into the Playoff if he was at that dump of a program.

 

[Jeeperaf]

...they'd be dark-horsing Arky...

Isn't that the follow-on move to a one-eyed pirate, eiffel tower, or dirty sanchez?

 

[TreOFive]

Just make it happen and win...cannot focus the the pundits.

 

[Tad Footeball]

...they'd be dark-horsing Arky...

Isn't that the follow-on move to a one-eyed pirate, eiffel tower, or dirty sanchez?

An Arky Darkhorse ? You DO NOT want that one defined for you. It's so vile that you won't even find it described let alone depicted in the darkest corners of the web. We're talking DBC level of twisted ****.

 

[NJshoreCane]

I expect improvement, but this team is also dangerously thin at some key spots. Ten wins should be a sensible expectation, but I'm not going to start a FireMarkRicht.com website if Miami wins nine and plays for the ACC title. Winning the division is my bottom line this season, 9-11 wins will do that, I think 10 will be the number Miami ends up with, providing the injury bug doesn't bite overly hard.

If we lose to FSU, UNC and VT with 9 wins we will not win the Coastal.

You're making the assumption that Miami loses to all three. FSU and UNC are home games, and Miami has been on a roll against VTech recently. Miami has a better chance of winning all three of those games, than losing all three. Miami will most likely go 2-1 in that stretch, with the VT game being the one loss. Remember, UNC also has FSU as one of their crossover games, which takes away the one advantage they had last season(They had a weak as **** crossover schedule). Miami, if they can hold serve at home, and beat the teams on the road they are supposed to, will be in good position to win the division. Virginia Tech has Syracuse and BC as crossovers, but they aren't nearly as talented as UNC. VT is relying on a Juco QB, and while there are weapons, there's going to be some major changes in regards to the system.

Your first statement was that if we win 9, we win the Coastal.
All I said was it's not automatic if we lose to certain teams.

I agree with your last statement.
I too think we will go 2-1 during that stretch.
I'm confident we will turn the tables on UNC.

 

[Novacane32000]

Miami 35 - App St. 7. This is the game when people will say, "oh ****".

Nobody will care if we blow out App State. That's why it's terrible scheduling. Nothing for winning but if you struggle then you look stupid

I'll care. this team has not come in first or second place only 4 times since 1989 in their division (a division that has Ga. Southern who got Muffcramp fired a few years ago from UF). They won consecutive NCAA Division 1 championships 3 years in a row from 05-07. We ain't exactly been killing it when we lose to Cincinatti you know. If we blow them out at their stadium, I'll have higher hopes. I don't care what nobody says. This ain't Miami from 2001 no matter how bad you want them to be.

You're exactly right. Just because people on this forum fail to realize that App State is much more respected in the CFB community, doesn't mean that it's so. App State was ranked higher than Cincy last year and has preseason votes coming into this season. That is a sign of respect from the CFB community. Beating them means something. Ga Tech, Va Tech, Duke, NC State, and Virginia are all conference opponents that haven't garnered the same type of respect that App State has coming into 2016. Lucky for us, they're playing Tennessee to start out the season so we'll have a good idea of what they'll be coming at us with.

You triggered a memory of the time we went to BYU and lost to Ty Detmer with one of our better teams. App st is no gimmie.

 

[CanesFan93]

I predicted 9 and I'll stick with it for now. There's just a feeling I have that kinda' follows what someone else said earlier: the team may not be as talented as most of us think. Not only that, we don't have any established leaders nor do we have enough depth for all positions to push one another.

I'd say those teams winning 10 had a lot more to do with their coach(es):
Wisconsin had one of the best defensive minds in CFB, Dave Aranda, leading them to a top 10 defense.

Michigan had play-makers all over their team before Harbaugh even got there, he just utilized them the right way. He was also botched punt away from beating one of the school's biggest rivals and finishing with 11 wins.

UNC is a question mark for now. I will give Fedora credit for installing his systems and recruiting the players that fit which is why they are having success now. After this season though, it will be back to their old ways especially if he can't reel in a top 25 class. Marqise Williams made their offense what it was, accounting for over 4,000 yards and 37 TDs. Won't be easy to replace. Elijah Hood will be a problem nonetheless and so will Switzer and Mack Hollins. They also have two NFL-caliber corners in Des Lawerence and MJ Stewart.

 

[Canedude08]

I expect improvement, but this team is also dangerously thin at some key spots. Ten wins should be a sensible expectation, but I'm not going to start a FireMarkRicht.com website if Miami wins nine and plays for the ACC title. Winning the division is my bottom line this season, 9-11 wins will do that, I think 10 will be the number Miami ends up with, providing the injury bug doesn't bite overly hard.

If we lose to FSU, UNC and VT with 9 wins we will not win the Coastal.

You're making the assumption that Miami loses to all three. FSU and UNC are home games, and Miami has been on a roll against VTech recently. Miami has a better chance of winning all three of those games, than losing all three. Miami will most likely go 2-1 in that stretch, with the VT game being the one loss. Remember, UNC also has FSU as one of their crossover games, which takes away the one advantage they had last season(They had a weak as **** crossover schedule). Miami, if they can hold serve at home, and beat the teams on the road they are supposed to, will be in good position to win the division. Virginia Tech has Syracuse and BC as crossovers, but they aren't nearly as talented as UNC. VT is relying on a Juco QB, and while there are weapons, there's going to be some major changes in regards to the system.

Your first statement was that if we win 9, we win the Coastal.
All I said was it's not automatic if we lose to certain teams.

I agree with your last statement.
I too think we will go 2-1 during that stretch.
I'm confident we will turn the tables on UNC.

I said that Miami winning anywhere between 9-11 games will put them in good position to win the division. Note that there's a range listed, people have won the division with 9 wins before, it's all about winning the right games. That said, this team should win 10 or more, which means that they will be in great position. As long as they are playing for the conference title at the end of the regular season, I'll be happy. This team needs to take that step forward, and winning their first divisional crown would be that, and would set Richt up for a big time recruiting class.

 

[Bunker Mentality]

so put $$ on the []_[] before these donkeys realize what it is.

:q3XKXeX:

 

[NJshoreCane]

I expect improvement, but this team is also dangerously thin at some key spots. Ten wins should be a sensible expectation, but I'm not going to start a FireMarkRicht.com website if Miami wins nine and plays for the ACC title. Winning the division is my bottom line this season, 9-11 wins will do that, I think 10 will be the number Miami ends up with, providing the injury bug doesn't bite overly hard.

If we lose to FSU, UNC and VT with 9 wins we will not win the Coastal.

You're making the assumption that Miami loses to all three. FSU and UNC are home games, and Miami has been on a roll against VTech recently. Miami has a better chance of winning all three of those games, than losing all three. Miami will most likely go 2-1 in that stretch, with the VT game being the one loss. Remember, UNC also has FSU as one of their crossover games, which takes away the one advantage they had last season(They had a weak as **** crossover schedule). Miami, if they can hold serve at home, and beat the teams on the road they are supposed to, will be in good position to win the division. Virginia Tech has Syracuse and BC as crossovers, but they aren't nearly as talented as UNC. VT is relying on a Juco QB, and while there are weapons, there's going to be some major changes in regards to the system.

Your first statement was that if we win 9, we win the Coastal.
All I said was it's not automatic if we lose to certain teams.

I agree with your last statement.
I too think we will go 2-1 during that stretch.
I'm confident we will turn the tables on UNC.

I said that Miami winning anywhere between 9-11 games will put them in good position to win the division. Note that there's a range listed, people have won the division with 9 wins before, it's all about winning the right games. That said, this team should win 10 or more, which means that they will be in great position. As long as they are playing for the conference title at the end of the regular season, I'll be happy. This team needs to take that step forward, and winning their first divisional crown would be that, and would set Richt up for a big time recruiting class.

Like I said, I agree.

 

[The Franchise]

I really don't understand reporters picking us at 8 wins. We lost Scott, Burns and Bush. That's it. We won 4 games last year with a TE coach and they see no improvement? Sure they say we'll be better and then still pick 8 games. Looking at you Porter.

Sent from my Z970 using Tapatalk

Makes no sense to me how anyone who calls himself a football fan or reporter could go into this season expecting us to have the same record we had last year.

Not only were we coachless for half the season, but the toxicity surrounding the program was unprecedented in history. The players were completely beat down and unmotivated by the circus that UM had allowed to continue.

We have one of the best QBs in college football, yet no one wants to account for that huge advantage.

The same idiot talking heads will come back from the previous segment of saying "ALL you need is a good QB to win at this level...." and then will do predictions and have us winning like 7 games as "Mark Richt tries to right the ship in Miami...". These dolts would be jerking each other off if ANY SEC school had a junior QB like Kaaya. Jesuchristo, they'd be dark-horsing Arky as a 2nd SEC team into the Playoff if he was at that dump of a program.

Exactly.

 

[The Franchise]

Miami 35 - App St. 7. This is the game when people will say, "oh ****".

Nobody will care if we blow out App State. That's why it's terrible scheduling. Nothing for winning but if you struggle then you look stupid

I'll care. this team has not come in first or second place only 4 times since 1989 in their division (a division that has Ga. Southern who got Muffcramp fired a few years ago from UF). They won consecutive NCAA Division 1 championships 3 years in a row from 05-07. We ain't exactly been killing it when we lose to Cincinatti you know. If we blow them out at their stadium, I'll have higher hopes. I don't care what nobody says. This ain't Miami from 2001 no matter how bad you want them to be.

You're exactly right. Just because people on this forum fail to realize that App State is much more respected in the CFB community, doesn't mean that it's so. App State was ranked higher than Cincy last year and has preseason votes coming into this season. That is a sign of respect from the CFB community. Beating them means something. Ga Tech, Va Tech, Duke, NC State, and Virginia are all conference opponents that haven't garnered the same type of respect that App State has coming into 2016. Lucky for us, they're playing Tennessee to start out the season so we'll have a good idea of what they'll be coming at us with.

You triggered a memory of the time we went to BYU and lost to Ty Detmer with one of our better teams. App st is no gimmie.

You must have a ****** memory if you're attempting to parallel that BYU team to App Store.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

Nobody will care if we blow out App State. That's why it's terrible scheduling. Nothing for winning but if you struggle then you look stupid

I'll care. this team has not come in first or second place only 4 times since 1989 in their division (a division that has Ga. Southern who got Muffcramp fired a few years ago from UF). They won consecutive NCAA Division 1 championships 3 years in a row from 05-07. We ain't exactly been killing it when we lose to Cincinatti you know. If we blow them out at their stadium, I'll have higher hopes. I don't care what nobody says. This ain't Miami from 2001 no matter how bad you want them to be.

You're exactly right. Just because people on this forum fail to realize that App State is much more respected in the CFB community, doesn't mean that it's so. App State was ranked higher than Cincy last year and has preseason votes coming into this season. That is a sign of respect from the CFB community. Beating them means something. Ga Tech, Va Tech, Duke, NC State, and Virginia are all conference opponents that haven't garnered the same type of respect that App State has coming into 2016. Lucky for us, they're playing Tennessee to start out the season so we'll have a good idea of what they'll be coming at us with.

You triggered a memory of the time we went to BYU and lost to Ty Detmer with one of our better teams. App st is no gimmie.

You must have a ****** memory if you're attempting to parallel that BYU team to App Store.

For real! That BYU team was just a few years removed from a NC and Ty Detmer won the Heisman that year.

Let me know when Ap. St. is gonna be in the running for either an NC or a Heisman candidate.

Taylor ******* Lamb. His wind up is worse than JaMarcus Russell's was.

Jesus wept while riding a pogo-cycle

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Very familiar. Threads like this are exceptionally popular on fan sites, as opposed to wagering oriented sites where the mathematical aspect is better understood.

Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina were all favored by 6 points or more 9 times last season, per the consensus closing line. Contrast to the 2015 Canes, who were favored by 6+ only 4 times. Right now the over/under on the 2016 Canes would be 5 games favored by 6+.

Again, it's not all that complicated. In our best recent season -- 2013 -- we won 9 games while being favored by 6+ in 8 games. Believe it or not, those season win over/unders are not a wild subjective stab, an impression they hey the 2016 Miami Hurricanes seem like a 7.5 team so let's hang that number. Pointspread projections are made of every game, and the associated money lines attached. Those money lines when applied to the appropriate formula spit out the logical season win forecast. In 2013 with a favorable schedule and a relatively high power rating we were projected to be considerable favorite quite often, hence our season win over/under was initially 9.5, although it was bet down to 9 in some spots in late August.

Wisconsin in 2015 didn't do anything remarkable. Their season win over/under (regular season only) opened at 10 despite being a double digit underdog in the opener against Alabama. Some spots were bet down to 9.5 late. North Carolina was 8 while Michigan was 7.5 then bet up to 8 at many joints in the late weeks.

When I first was hired as sportsbook supervisor in 1989 but didn't know much about the applicable math toward those season win totals and future book odds, one of the chief oddsmakers pulled me aside and tutored. It was really an eye opener. His first advice on football was to look at those games in which a team was projected to be favored by a touchdown. Those games, he explained carried roughly -250 win expectancy, or theoretically 5 chances in 7. Once it reaches that level there begins to be some substantial advantage, as opposed to 3 or 4 point spreads. Besides, he said, the games with a touchdown projected spread in preseason are more likely to reach double digits at actual gametime than they were to reverse favoritism at gametime. None of this is linear. The advantage swells upward as the pointspread increases.

BTW, NFL favorites win more dependably than college favorites, so those NFL money lines are higher at the same spread than college favorites. Basketball favorites win more dependably than football chalk so those basketball money line charts are higher than football charts. Regardless, the money line fits very well at each pointspread. Plug and play. If you evaluate hundreds or thousands of results at each spread and in each sport as a block, you'll see that the favorite won the game almost exactly as often as the money line predicted they would. That in itself shoots down the laughably ignorant notion that the pointspread is not a prediction of the outcome, but merely serves to balance the action. I always have to chuckle at geniuses who supply that line. Power ratings and home field provide the spread. The spread points to the money line. The money line provides win likelihood. And a scatter plot of results in relation to the spread reveals normal and logical distribution over time.

The 2016 Canes can certainly win 10 games. But it will require our power rating shooting up a full touchdown or more during the course of the season, like Michigan's did last year. Otherwise we are relying on outliers and upsets and coin flips. Only knuckleheads rely on outliers and upsets and coin flips. That was one of the jolts I received upon joining message boards in the late '90s. I had no idea that despicable cats were so popular, and I had no idea outliers were so prized. In my Las Vegas sportsbook environment sure you hear about outliers but the people touting them have to grasp and announce the 8/1 burden, or 15/1 burden, or 30/1 burden, or whatever. Otherwise they will be laughed off the stage, and rightfully so.

Somehow on message boards, particularly sports message boards, it is popular and accepted to try to deflect a pronouncement via use of an outlier example. One relatively meaningless exception and the poster somehow believes the point has been diffused, that the 90%+ foundation holds no worth. Hilarious. But I've learned to accept it. It goes on everywhere, not merely here. Those posters know there is a market for the high decibel outliers, just like certain political authors know they can lap up SAM sales and SAM acclaim via use of blunt titles like "Outrage" and "Slander."

The ACC Coastal is unusually condensed. That's one of our hurdles toward 10 wins or nearby. The power ratings of every team in that division are within 10 points of each other entering 2016. North Carolina tops the Sagarin numbers at 81 then it drops no lower than 71. You won't find congestion like that in any other conference or division. It's the reason the 2016 Canes can't rely on normalcy...wonderful normalcy...as opposed to outliers and upsets and coin flips. Richt's job -- now and more likely toward future seasons -- is to bump the power rating to the degree that road games like Georgia Tech, Virginia and North Carolina State carry 6+ point theoretical advantage. Those road games against mid level conference teams dot the schedule every season. That's where the extra wins show up, when those games are comfortably taken.

 

[CAT5Coming]

...can win 10+ games last year but we can't expect 10 here.

Wisconsin was on its 3rd HC in 4 years. First year HC. No QB. Zero passing threat. P5 conference. 10 wins.

New HC at Michigan. Bad QB that Iowa dumped. Coming off a 5 win season. They won 10.

UNC was engulfed in NCAA ****. Coming off a 7 or 8 win season. Embattled HC. They win 11.

Poor mouthers, tell me why UM can't expect to do at least as well as sorry *** Wisconsin.

Because we winning 12!!!! Go Canes.

 

[teddywestside]

Very familiar. Threads like this are exceptionally popular on fan sites, as opposed to wagering oriented sites where the mathematical aspect is better understood.

Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina were all favored by 6 points or more 9 times last season, per the consensus closing line. Contrast to the 2015 Canes, who were favored by 6+ only 4 times. Right now the over/under on the 2016 Canes would be 5 games favored by 6+.

Again, it's not all that complicated. In our best recent season -- 2013 -- we won 9 games while being favored by 6+ in 8 games. Believe it or not, those season win over/unders are not a wild subjective stab, an impression they hey the 2016 Miami Hurricanes seem like a 7.5 team so let's hang that number. Pointspread projections are made of every game, and the associated money lines attached. Those money lines when applied to the appropriate formula spit out the logical season win forecast. In 2013 with a favorable schedule and a relatively high power rating we were projected to be considerable favorite quite often, hence our season win over/under was initially 9.5, although it was bet down to 9 in some spots in late August.

Wisconsin in 2015 didn't do anything remarkable. Their season win over/under (regular season only) opened at 10 despite being a double digit underdog in the opener against Alabama. Some spots were bet down to 9.5 late. North Carolina was 8 while Michigan was 7.5 then bet up to 8 at many joints in the late weeks.

When I first was hired as sportsbook supervisor in 1989 but didn't know much about the applicable math toward those season win totals and future book odds, one of the chief oddsmakers pulled me aside and tutored. It was really an eye opener. His first advice on football was to look at those games in which a team was projected to be favored by a touchdown. Those games, he explained carried roughly -250 win expectancy, or theoretically 5 chances in 7. Once it reaches that level there begins to be some substantial advantage, as opposed to 3 or 4 point spreads. Besides, he said, the games with a touchdown projected spread in preseason are more likely to reach double digits at actual gametime than they were to reverse favoritism at gametime. None of this is linear. The advantage swells upward as the pointspread increases.

BTW, NFL favorites win more dependably than college favorites, so those NFL money lines are higher at the same spread than college favorites. Basketball favorites win more dependably than football chalk so those basketball money line charts are higher than football charts. Regardless, the money line fits very well at each pointspread. Plug and play. If you evaluate hundreds or thousands of results at each spread and in each sport as a block, you'll see that the favorite won the game almost exactly as often as the money line predicted they would. That in itself shoots down the laughably ignorant notion that the pointspread is not a prediction of the outcome, but merely serves to balance the action. I always have to chuckle at geniuses who supply that line. Power ratings and home field provide the spread. The spread points to the money line. The money line provides win likelihood. And a scatter plot of results in relation to the spread reveals normal and logical distribution over time.

The 2016 Canes can certainly win 10 games. But it will require our power rating shooting up a full touchdown or more during the course of the season, like Michigan's did last year. Otherwise we are relying on outliers and upsets and coin flips. Only knuckleheads rely on outliers and upsets and coin flips. That was one of the jolts I received upon joining message boards in the late '90s. I had no idea that despicable cats were so popular, and I had no idea outliers were so prized. In my Las Vegas sportsbook environment sure you hear about outliers but the people touting them have to grasp and announce the 8/1 burden, or 15/1 burden, or 30/1 burden, or whatever. Otherwise they will be laughed of the stage, and rightfully so.

Somehow on message boards, particularly sports message boards, it is popular and accepted to try to deflect a pronouncement via use of an outlier example. One relatively meaningless exception and the poster somehow believes the point has been diffused, that the 90%+ foundation holds no worth. Hilarious. But I've learned to accept it. It goes on everywhere, not merely here. Those posters know there is a market for the high decibel outliers, just like certain political authors know they can lap up SAM sales and SAM acclaim via use of blunt titles like "Outrage" and "Slander."

The ACC Coastal is unusually condensed. That's one of our hurdles toward 10 wins or nearby. The power ratings of every team in that division are within 10 points of each other entering 2016. North Carolina tops the Sagarin numbers at 81 then it drops no lower than 71. You won't find congestion like that in any other conference or division. It's the reason the 2016 Canes can't rely on normalcy...wonderful normalcy...as opposed to outliers and upsets and coin flips. Richt's job -- now and more likely toward future seasons -- is to bump the power rating to the degree that road games like Georgia Tech, Virginia and North Carolina State carry 6+ point theoretical advantage. Those road games against mid level conference teams dot the schedule every season. That's where the extra wins show up, when those games are comfortably taken.

So give us your predictions, dilweed. lulz. Prove you're as smart as you're trying to sound.

 

[ThomasM]

I really don't understand reporters picking us at 8 wins. We lost Scott, Burns and Bush. That's it. We won 4 games last year with a TE coach and they see no improvement? Sure they say we'll be better and then still pick 8 games. Looking at you Porter.

Sent from my Z970 using Tapatalk

Makes no sense to me how anyone who calls himself a football fan or reporter could go into this season expecting us to have the same record we had last year.

Not only were we coachless for half the season, but the toxicity surrounding the program was unprecedented in history. The players were completely beat down and unmotivated by the circus that UM had allowed to continue.

We have one of the best QBs in college football, yet no one wants to account for that huge advantage.

With one of the best QB coaches in the country, college or pro. Makes no sense to me how people think we are a 7 or 8 win team. We should be improved drastically in some areas. Throw in possibly the best D-line coach in the land... We won't recognize our Canes. These will NOT be Al Golden's or Randy Shannon's Miami Hurricanes.

 

[The Franchise]

Very familiar. Threads like this are exceptionally popular on fan sites, as opposed to wagering oriented sites where the mathematical aspect is better understood.

Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina were all favored by 6 points or more 9 times last season, per the consensus closing line. Contrast to the 2015 Canes, who were favored by 6+ only 4 times. Right now the over/under on the 2016 Canes would be 5 games favored by 6+.

Again, it's not all that complicated. In our best recent season -- 2013 -- we won 9 games while being favored by 6+ in 8 games. Believe it or not, those season win over/unders are not a wild subjective stab, an impression they hey the 2016 Miami Hurricanes seem like a 7.5 team so let's hang that number. Pointspread projections are made of every game, and the associated money lines attached. Those money lines when applied to the appropriate formula spit out the logical season win forecast. In 2013 with a favorable schedule and a relatively high power rating we were projected to be considerable favorite quite often, hence our season win over/under was initially 9.5, although it was bet down to 9 in some spots in late August.

Wisconsin in 2015 didn't do anything remarkable. Their season win over/under (regular season only) opened at 10 despite being a double digit underdog in the opener against Alabama. Some spots were bet down to 9.5 late. North Carolina was 8 while Michigan was 7.5 then bet up to 8 at many joints in the late weeks.

When I first was hired as sportsbook supervisor in 1989 but didn't know much about the applicable math toward those season win totals and future book odds, one of the chief oddsmakers pulled me aside and tutored. It was really an eye opener. His first advice on football was to look at those games in which a team was projected to be favored by a touchdown. Those games, he explained carried roughly -250 win expectancy, or theoretically 5 chances in 7. Once it reaches that level there begins to be some substantial advantage, as opposed to 3 or 4 point spreads. Besides, he said, the games with a touchdown projected spread in preseason are more likely to reach double digits at actual gametime than they were to reverse favoritism at gametime. None of this is linear. The advantage swells upward as the pointspread increases.

BTW, NFL favorites win more dependably than college favorites, so those NFL money lines are higher at the same spread than college favorites. Basketball favorites win more dependably than football chalk so those basketball money line charts are higher than football charts. Regardless, the money line fits very well at each pointspread. Plug and play. If you evaluate hundreds or thousands of results at each spread and in each sport as a block, you'll see that the favorite won the game almost exactly as often as the money line predicted they would. That in itself shoots down the laughably ignorant notion that the pointspread is not a prediction of the outcome, but merely serves to balance the action. I always have to chuckle at geniuses who supply that line. Power ratings and home field provide the spread. The spread points to the money line. The money line provides win likelihood. And a scatter plot of results in relation to the spread reveals normal and logical distribution over time.

The 2016 Canes can certainly win 10 games. But it will require our power rating shooting up a full touchdown or more during the course of the season, like Michigan's did last year. Otherwise we are relying on outliers and upsets and coin flips. Only knuckleheads rely on outliers and upsets and coin flips. That was one of the jolts I received upon joining message boards in the late '90s. I had no idea that despicable cats were so popular, and I had no idea outliers were so prized. In my Las Vegas sportsbook environment sure you hear about outliers but the people touting them have to grasp and announce the 8/1 burden, or 15/1 burden, or 30/1 burden, or whatever. Otherwise they will be laughed of the stage, and rightfully so.

Somehow on message boards, particularly sports message boards, it is popular and accepted to try to deflect a pronouncement via use of an outlier example. One relatively meaningless exception and the poster somehow believes the point has been diffused, that the 90%+ foundation holds no worth. Hilarious. But I've learned to accept it. It goes on everywhere, not merely here. Those posters know there is a market for the high decibel outliers, just like certain political authors know they can lap up SAM sales and SAM acclaim via use of blunt titles like "Outrage" and "Slander."

The ACC Coastal is unusually condensed. That's one of our hurdles toward 10 wins or nearby. The power ratings of every team in that division are within 10 points of each other entering 2016. North Carolina tops the Sagarin numbers at 81 then it drops no lower than 71. You won't find congestion like that in any other conference or division. It's the reason the 2016 Canes can't rely on normalcy...wonderful normalcy...as opposed to outliers and upsets and coin flips. Richt's job -- now and more likely toward future seasons -- is to bump the power rating to the degree that road games like Georgia Tech, Virginia and North Carolina State carry 6+ point theoretical advantage. Those road games against mid level conference teams dot the schedule every season. That's where the extra wins show up, when those games are comfortably taken.

So give us your predictions, dilweed. lulz. Prove you're as smart as you're trying to sound.

Assy Booger is known as the biggest blowhard in the history of UM sites. All he does is tell you how smart and great and successful he is. He never shows you though. Never provides any actual substance.

 

[bbcane]

Very familiar. Threads like this are exceptionally popular on fan sites, as opposed to wagering oriented sites where the mathematical aspect is better understood.

Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina were all favored by 6 points or more 9 times last season, per the consensus closing line. Contrast to the 2015 Canes, who were favored by 6+ only 4 times. Right now the over/under on the 2016 Canes would be 5 games favored by 6+.

Again, it's not all that complicated. In our best recent season -- 2013 -- we won 9 games while being favored by 6+ in 8 games. Believe it or not, those season win over/unders are not a wild subjective stab, an impression they hey the 2016 Miami Hurricanes seem like a 7.5 team so let's hang that number. Pointspread projections are made of every game, and the associated money lines attached. Those money lines when applied to the appropriate formula spit out the logical season win forecast. In 2013 with a favorable schedule and a relatively high power rating we were projected to be considerable favorite quite often, hence our season win over/under was initially 9.5, although it was bet down to 9 in some spots in late August.

Wisconsin in 2015 didn't do anything remarkable. Their season win over/under (regular season only) opened at 10 despite being a double digit underdog in the opener against Alabama. Some spots were bet down to 9.5 late. North Carolina was 8 while Michigan was 7.5 then bet up to 8 at many joints in the late weeks.

When I first was hired as sportsbook supervisor in 1989 but didn't know much about the applicable math toward those season win totals and future book odds, one of the chief oddsmakers pulled me aside and tutored. It was really an eye opener. His first advice on football was to look at those games in which a team was projected to be favored by a touchdown. Those games, he explained carried roughly -250 win expectancy, or theoretically 5 chances in 7. Once it reaches that level there begins to be some substantial advantage, as opposed to 3 or 4 point spreads. Besides, he said, the games with a touchdown projected spread in preseason are more likely to reach double digits at actual gametime than they were to reverse favoritism at gametime. None of this is linear. The advantage swells upward as the pointspread increases.

BTW, NFL favorites win more dependably than college favorites, so those NFL money lines are higher at the same spread than college favorites. Basketball favorites win more dependably than football chalk so those basketball money line charts are higher than football charts. Regardless, the money line fits very well at each pointspread. Plug and play. If you evaluate hundreds or thousands of results at each spread and in each sport as a block, you'll see that the favorite won the game almost exactly as often as the money line predicted they would. That in itself shoots down the laughably ignorant notion that the pointspread is not a prediction of the outcome, but merely serves to balance the action. I always have to chuckle at geniuses who supply that line. Power ratings and home field provide the spread. The spread points to the money line. The money line provides win likelihood. And a scatter plot of results in relation to the spread reveals normal and logical distribution over time.

The 2016 Canes can certainly win 10 games. But it will require our power rating shooting up a full touchdown or more during the course of the season, like Michigan's did last year. Otherwise we are relying on outliers and upsets and coin flips. Only knuckleheads rely on outliers and upsets and coin flips. That was one of the jolts I received upon joining message boards in the late '90s. I had no idea that despicable cats were so popular, and I had no idea outliers were so prized. In my Las Vegas sportsbook environment sure you hear about outliers but the people touting them have to grasp and announce the 8/1 burden, or 15/1 burden, or 30/1 burden, or whatever. Otherwise they will be laughed of the stage, and rightfully so.

Somehow on message boards, particularly sports message boards, it is popular and accepted to try to deflect a pronouncement via use of an outlier example. One relatively meaningless exception and the poster somehow believes the point has been diffused, that the 90%+ foundation holds no worth. Hilarious. But I've learned to accept it. It goes on everywhere, not merely here. Those posters know there is a market for the high decibel outliers, just like certain political authors know they can lap up SAM sales and SAM acclaim via use of blunt titles like "Outrage" and "Slander."

The ACC Coastal is unusually condensed. That's one of our hurdles toward 10 wins or nearby. The power ratings of every team in that division are within 10 points of each other entering 2016. North Carolina tops the Sagarin numbers at 81 then it drops no lower than 71. You won't find congestion like that in any other conference or division. It's the reason the 2016 Canes can't rely on normalcy...wonderful normalcy...as opposed to outliers and upsets and coin flips. Richt's job -- now and more likely toward future seasons -- is to bump the power rating to the degree that road games like Georgia Tech, Virginia and North Carolina State carry 6+ point theoretical advantage. Those road games against mid level conference teams dot the schedule every season. That's where the extra wins show up, when those games are comfortably taken.

So give us your predictions, dilweed. lulz. Prove you're as smart as you're trying to sound.

Max 8 wins. Unless richt is a miracle worker.