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Tracking the 23 Class: Where Are They Now?

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DTP said:
What’s the “hit rate” for other coaches? I’m curious. I’ve always felt that recruiting was as much about quantity as quality because it seems like even the best programs miss on a ton of blue chip kids. I mean Florida State built their roster this year on former 4 and 5 star kids that originally signed with Bama or UGA and for the most part, those guys are bums.
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Just looking at Smart’s classes from 2016-present, he’s hitting between 33% - 50%/class, which is the ideal area. U want to be at a minimum 33% hit rate for ur classes.
 
Rellyrell said:
Shiiiiiit; why stop at the class of 2023? Let’s see where 2 of the first 4 of the classes recruited here are at:

2022:
C. Moss 4* (#8 DE in the Nation) - Portal
N. Kelly 4* (#14 DL in the Nation) - Portal to UCF
J. Skinner 4* (#3 TE in the Nation) - Portal to UL
T. Citizen 4* (#9 RB in the Nation) - Portal to McNeese
K. Rogers 4* (#15 CB in the Nation) - Portal to Miss St
C. Graves 4* (#7 ATH in the Nation) - Portal to Ole Miss
W. Bissainthe 4* (#18 LB in the Nation) - ⭐️
J. Brown 4* (#17 QB in the Nation) - Portal to UCF
M. Williams 4* (#26 S in the Nation) - limited PT
I. Horton 4* (#56 WR in the Nation) - Solid WR3
J. Harris 3* (#51 CB in the Nation) - No Comment
A. Moten 3* (#80 DL in the Nation) - Rotational Piece
M. McCoy 3* (#62 OT in the Nation) - No Comment
A. Cooper 3* (#109 OT in the Nation) - ⭐️
C. Young 3* (#7 JUCO WR in the Nation) - Portal to UGA

Transfer Portal of players w/ 2+ yrs of eligibility:
D. Jackson 3* TR - Portal to FSU
H. Parrish 3* TR - Portal to Ole Miss
A. Messidor 4* TR - ⭐️
L. Sagapolu 3* TR - Portal to UW
F. Ladson 3* TR - Portal to UMass
D. Porter 3* TR - Solid CB
J. Denis 3* TR - Portal to Central Missouri
J. Lichtenstein 3* TR - No Comment

5/23 = 21.7% hit rate as of 12/06/24

2023:
F. Mauigoa 5* (#2 OT in the Nation) - ⭐️
S. Okunlola 5* (#4 OT in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
R. Bain 4* (#11 DE in the Nation) - ⭐️
J. Wayne 4* (#13 DE in the Nation) - Portal to UW
R. Williams 4* (#4 TE in the Nation) - Promising
R. Joseph 4* (#24 WR in the Nation) - No Comment
M. Fletcher 4* (#7 RB in the Nation) - ⭐️
R. Stafford 4* (#17 CB in the Nation) - No Comment
C. Acheampong 4* (#23 DL in the Nation) - Portal to UCLA
M. Bryant 4* (#16 LB in the Nation) - Promising
R. Aguirre 4* (#20 LB in the Nation) - Promising
D. Brown 4* (#21 CB in the Nation) - Solid Depth Piece
R. Washington 4* (#28 WR in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
C. Johnson 4* (#17 RB in the Nation) - Portal
B. Washington 4* (#37 LB in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
J. Horton 4* (#50 DL in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
T. Kinsler 3* (#49 OT in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
J. Carver 3* (#30 TE in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
S. Kirk 3* (#3 JUCO WR in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
A. Tripp 3* (#60 OT in the Nation) - Portal
E. Williams 3* (#34 QB in the Nation) - WILL NEVER START
K. Spencer 3* (#58 S in the Nation) - Portal to VT
M. Pulliam 3* (#64 LB in the Nation) - Portal to MSU
F. Tinilau 3* (#83 OT in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
Dylan Joyce (NA) - Starting P
D. Freeney (NA JUCO CB) - Portal to Arizona

Transfer Portal of players w/ 2+ yrs of eligibility:
J. Burroughs 3* TR - Portal
L. Cristobal 3* TR - No Comment
A. Campbell 3* TR - No Comment
J. Richard 3* TR - Injured so No Comment
D. Brown 4* TR - Portal to FSU
T. Gore 3* TR - Portal to GT
F. Mauigoa 4* TR - Inconsistent ‘24, but ⭐️
T. Roberts 3* TR - Portal to MSU
C. McCormick 3* TR - Solid Rotational Piece
A. Allen 3* TR - Solid RB3/4

11/36= 30.6% hit rate as of 12/06/24

So between the classes of 2022 & 2023, which are supposed to be our upperclassmen leaders for the 2025-26 season, Mario’s HS & Portal evals are hitting at a 26.2 hit rate, which is on par with the data I provided in the “Mario Recruiter” thread during his time at UO.

He’s a 1/4 success rate w/ a 3/4 attrition/non-impact rate. I expect more portal casualties which will skew these numbers further. It’s also why for the 1st time since I started following recruiting, I was very numb b/c so far, we’re not stacking classes, we’re bleeding them.
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26.2% hit rate!?!?!

****, that’s Rumphian level
 
Rellyrell said:
Just looking at Smart’s classes from 2016-present, he’s hitting between 33% - 50%/class, which is the ideal area. U want to be at a minimum 33% hit rate for ur classes.
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Yeah feels like (without looking at numbers) this has been our problem for a long time

One class will be good and then we will follow it up with a disaster. Then wonder why we have no depth

2022 Mario year was bad. 2023 is starting to formulate and 2024 is early. But we need 23/24 to stack especially if 25 is a smaller class where there’s a bit more pressure to have guys pan out
 
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Rellyrell said:
Shiiiiiit; why stop at the class of 2023? Let’s see where 2 of the first 4 of the classes recruited here are at:

2022:
C. Moss 4* (#8 DE in the Nation) - Portal
N. Kelly 4* (#14 DL in the Nation) - Portal to UCF
J. Skinner 4* (#3 TE in the Nation) - Portal to UL
T. Citizen 4* (#9 RB in the Nation) - Portal to McNeese
K. Rogers 4* (#15 CB in the Nation) - Portal to Miss St
C. Graves 4* (#7 ATH in the Nation) - Portal to Ole Miss
W. Bissainthe 4* (#18 LB in the Nation) - ⭐️
J. Brown 4* (#17 QB in the Nation) - Portal to UCF
M. Williams 4* (#26 S in the Nation) - limited PT
I. Horton 4* (#56 WR in the Nation) - Solid WR3
J. Harris 3* (#51 CB in the Nation) - No Comment
A. Moten 3* (#80 DL in the Nation) - Rotational Piece
M. McCoy 3* (#62 OT in the Nation) - No Comment
A. Cooper 3* (#109 OT in the Nation) - ⭐️
C. Young 3* (#7 JUCO WR in the Nation) - Portal to UGA

Transfer Portal of players w/ 2+ yrs of eligibility:
D. Jackson 3* TR - Portal to FSU
H. Parrish 3* TR - Portal to Ole Miss
A. Messidor 4* TR - ⭐️
L. Sagapolu 3* TR - Portal to UW
F. Ladson 3* TR - Portal to UMass
D. Porter 3* TR - Solid CB
J. Denis 3* TR - Portal to Central Missouri
J. Lichtenstein 3* TR - No Comment

5/23 = 21.7% hit rate as of 12/06/24

2023:
F. Mauigoa 5* (#2 OT in the Nation) - ⭐️
S. Okunlola 5* (#4 OT in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
R. Bain 4* (#11 DE in the Nation) - ⭐️
J. Wayne 4* (#13 DE in the Nation) - Portal to UW
R. Williams 4* (#4 TE in the Nation) - Promising
R. Joseph 4* (#24 WR in the Nation) - No Comment
M. Fletcher 4* (#7 RB in the Nation) - ⭐️
R. Stafford 4* (#17 CB in the Nation) - No Comment
C. Acheampong 4* (#23 DL in the Nation) - Portal to UCLA
M. Bryant 4* (#16 LB in the Nation) - Promising
R. Aguirre 4* (#20 LB in the Nation) - Promising
D. Brown 4* (#21 CB in the Nation) - Solid Depth Piece
R. Washington 4* (#28 WR in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
C. Johnson 4* (#17 RB in the Nation) - Portal
B. Washington 4* (#37 LB in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
J. Horton 4* (#50 DL in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
T. Kinsler 3* (#49 OT in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
J. Carver 3* (#30 TE in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
S. Kirk 3* (#3 JUCO WR in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
A. Tripp 3* (#60 OT in the Nation) - Portal
E. Williams 3* (#34 QB in the Nation) - WILL NEVER START
K. Spencer 3* (#58 S in the Nation) - Portal to VT
M. Pulliam 3* (#64 LB in the Nation) - Portal to MSU
F. Tinilau 3* (#83 OT in the Nation) - Bench Warmer
Dylan Joyce (NA) - Starting P
D. Freeney (NA JUCO CB) - Portal to Arizona

Transfer Portal of players w/ 2+ yrs of eligibility:
J. Burroughs 3* TR - Portal
L. Cristobal 3* TR - No Comment
A. Campbell 3* TR - No Comment
J. Richard 3* TR - Injured so No Comment
D. Brown 4* TR - Portal to FSU
T. Gore 3* TR - Portal to GT
F. Mauigoa 4* TR - Inconsistent ‘24, but ⭐️
T. Roberts 3* TR - Portal to MSU
C. McCormick 3* TR - Solid Rotational Piece
A. Allen 3* TR - Solid RB3/4

11/36= 30.6% hit rate as of 12/06/24

So between the classes of 2022 & 2023, which are supposed to be our upperclassmen leaders for the 2025-26 season, Mario’s HS & Portal evals are hitting at a 26.2 hit rate, which is on par with the data I provided in the “Mario Recruiter” thread during his time at UO.

He’s a 1/4 success rate w/ a 3/4 attrition/non-impact rate. I expect more portal casualties which will skew these numbers further. It’s also why for the 1st time since I started following recruiting, I was very numb b/c so far, we’re not stacking classes, we’re bleeding them.
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IMG_1174.jpeg
 
AtrainCane said:
You’re right. We’re not bringing in kids to visit from the class of 2026. Nah…all those pictures mean absolutely nothing. The facts always get the way of the dumb arguments on this board.
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I’m sure it was unintentional but you

Season 4 Success GIF by The Office
 
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Udynasty said:
Miami's class if 23 was a top 7 class nation wide. After two years we are starting to see who is emerging / who never panned out / who are the stars / and who left..


Portal

Antonio Tripp

Jayden Wayne

Collins Acheampong

Chris Johnson

Kaleb Spencer

Marcellius Pulliam

Demitrius Freeny


Non - Factors

*Subject to change based on junior year results

Robert Stafford

Jackson Carver

Frankie Tinilau

Tommy Kinsler

Robby Washington

Bobby Washington


Josh Horton

Shemar Kirk ( portal soon come)


Some Production

Riley Williams

Samson Okunlola

Ray Ray Joseph

Malik Bryant


Contributors and Star Players

Francis Mauigoa (⭐️)

Reuben Bain (⭐️)

Damari Brown ( contributor but need a full season to better measure)

Emory Williams ( contributor)

Raul Aguirre ( Contributor)

Dylan Joyce ( contributor)

Mark Fletcher ( Contributor borderline ⭐️)


thoughts?

I am a bit concerned about the hit rate/ developmental rate. We might see more hit the portal too.
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I think you have to judge the progress of a recruit against the quality of the room they are in and the amount of rotation their position gets.

Some positions rotate a lot of depth (WR and DL) while others tend to get very little 2nd and 3rd team snaps (OL and QB).

Add on top of that the quality of the starters at their position to see who might be blocking them from playing time.

So in that context, it is hard for me to see Tinilau and Kinsler as busts when they have limited opportunities and have to surpass some longstanding starters in the process.

On the other hand, if Stafford could not get on the field with the DBs we have...yikes.
 
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Angry Ibis said:
26.2% hit rate!?!?!

****, that’s Rumphian level
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He had a few weeks to pull together 2022, … and 2023 and 2024 are still early. But I agree we need to see a big step forward for both of those classes next season. If guys like Riley Williams, Jojo, Carr, Josh Horton, Bryant, Popo, Pruitt, the Washingtons, etc aren’t stepping up, there’s a problem.
 
Y’all are starting to see the light. I’m glad to see it. Usually this fanbase is way behind on smelling the roses.

Think we’re ahead of schedule on the Mario is toast realization
 
This happens everywhere. When you keep stacking your more prepared for things like this. Classes have more bust rate than anything pause, if you not bringing in top classes though this becomes unacceptable. As long as your last three classes have differences makers that are playing your good. So if you have let’s say 2 stars and 3 borderline dogs each class that’s 15 players and only 22 play. This is what the elites do and this happens all over the country.
 
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TrumpyCane said:
TrumpyCane remembers this board gobbling up Sonny Dykes when TCU made the NC game

He proceeded to go back to reality the following 2 seasons
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Better than gobbling up coaches for his recruiting rankings that don’t translate onto the field….
 
Dwinstitles said:
This happens everywhere. When you keep stacking your more prepared for things like this. Classes have more bust rate than anything pause, if you not bringing in top classes though this becomes unacceptable. As long as your last three classes have differences makers that are playing your good. So if you have let’s say 2 stars and 3 borderline dogs each class that’s 15 players and only 22 play. This is what the elites do and this happens all over the country.
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I don’t understand why people don’t see this.
 
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