Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

[Jaromir Jagr]

Unbelievable!!!

You give me a rule with 50 outcomes in any given year. YOU JUST DEFINED RANDOM!!!

HA!

WTF..............

You're out there, dude. Hey, I heard we are going after an outfielder who can throw it all the way to home plate!!!!!

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Unbelievable!!!

You give me a rule with 50 outcomes in any given year. YOU JUST DEFINED RANDOM!!!

HA!

This is how bad you are at numbers even though you claim it's your job. You asked for a rule that defines what happened in the PAST. You asked nothing about "any given year".

You're about as much of a math guy as Andrew is an actual coach.

 

[canesproponent]

Amazing........

2-3 weeks before the tournament, you have the BEST information available and it is correct only ~40% of the time.

The gnome himself admits that there is a 1 in 50 chance of knowing who makes the tournament. You JUST SAID IT..... 1 in 50 is = to 2%.

You make an *** of yourself and come up with a dumb comment that belies your intellectual acumen (i.e. "we are going after an outfielder who can throw it all the way to home plate!!!!!").

This is your dumbest stretch of posting and that says a lot!

 

[canesproponent]

All regressions are "trained" on past data. As are neural nets, support vectors, etc...

You are looking for patterns.

My only measure is Omaha. Morris is great because he made it to Omaha TWO YEARS IN A ROW, and only 40% of top 8 seeds do that. Morris posted a top 3 record for 3 seasons in a row and made it to Omaha 2 of those years. Morris was a GREAT coach between 2014 and 2016. That is my point and the numbers prove it.

He failed in 2017.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Amazing........

2-3 weeks before the tournament, you have the BEST information available and it is correct only ~40% of the time.

The gnome himself admits that there is a 1 in 50 chance of knowing who makes the tournament. You JUST SAID IT..... 1 in 50 is = to 2%.

You make an *** of yourself and come up with a dumb comment that belies your intellectual acumen (i.e. "we are going after an outfielder who can throw it all the way to home plate!!!!!").

This is your dumbest stretch of posting and that says a lot!

You don't even understand your own question, much less the answer you're trying to come up with.

FYI - "85% of the CWS teams came from four conferences" isn't a prediction. It's a historical fact.

There is 0% chance that you're a numbers guy. I'm actually starting to believe that you understand baseball better than you understand stats.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Morris posted a top 3 record for 3 seasons in a row and made it to Omaha 2 of those years. Morris was a GREAT coach between 2014 and 2016. That is my point and the numbers prove it.

We were tied for the 19th best record in 2014 and the 9th best record in 2015. Morris did not post a top 3 record 3 years in a row.

We can add another basic fact to the list of things that canesproponent is incapable of looking up.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Why are we using "great" and "2014" in the same sentence? We had an RPI of 15 on selection day. We lost a home regional.

 

[Doppelganger]

Because you have a flawed view of what the expected outcomes are. No matter who you have ranked higher in the RPI, the same teams are winning over the past decade.

Then don't just use the RPI.

When was the last time an ISR # 1 won the CWS?

How about the # 1 national seed?

Or the # 1 team in the Baseball America poll?

I've said this since day one on this board. It doesn't matter what standard you use. The 'best' team by any standard rarely, if ever, wins the College World Series.

But you think it's all predictable. That's why you're fleecing your friends at the MGM sports book every year, right?

 

[Doppelganger]

You've lied about everything I've written. So that kind of leans toward the sociopath side.

I've posted cold, hard numbers and facts that have shredded pretty much every claim you've made.

 

[Doppelganger]

Then we agree that I am right.

No. Your figures don't carry any context. It might fool silly people like zbrod95 but they don't fool anybody with any sense.

I already showed you how those numbers are meaningless.

 

[Doppelganger]

Because they have a program that can win in Omaha. Miami doesn't. That's really the point.

Apparently so can Fresno State and Coastal Carolina who both have twice as many Omaha wins as Miami in the last 10 years.

In other words, a meaningless statistic.

 

[Doppelganger]

Don't tell me what I meant.

Everybody knows what you meant, Jagr.

Stop playing games.

The intent of this thread was impossible to miss.

 

[Doppelganger]

2-3 weeks before the tournament, you have the BEST information available and it is correct only ~40% of the time.

Heck, a week before the CWS itself he couldn't tell you who was going to win.

And that's the case for every year.

 

[Doppelganger]

When was the last time an ISR # 1 won the CWS?

How about the # 1 national seed?

Or the # 1 team in the Baseball America poll?

I know you won't do this so I will.

Last time the # 1 team in the ISR won the CWS? 2003 Rice.

Last time the # 1 team in Baseball America poll won the CWS? 2001 Miami.

Last time the # 1 national seed won the CWS? 1999 Miami.

 

[Doppelganger]

So first you used record to determine if a season was great...

We were tied for the 19th best record in 2014 and the 9th best record in 2015. Morris did not post a top 3 record 3 years in a row.

Then you turn on a dime and use RPI....

Why are we using "great" and "2014" in the same sentence? We had an RPI of 15 on selection day.

This is the kind of honesty we can expect from Jagr.

 

[Doppelganger]

No matter who you have ranked higher in the RPI, the same teams are winning over the past decade.

Also, 7 of the 10 CWS champions of the last decade won their first national championship.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Because you have a flawed view of what the expected outcomes are. No matter who you have ranked higher in the RPI, the same teams are winning over the past decade.

Then don't just use the RPI.

When was the last time an ISR # 1 won the CWS?

How about the # 1 national seed?

Or the # 1 team in the Baseball America poll?

I've said this since day one on this board. It doesn't matter what standard you use. The 'best' team by any standard rarely, if ever, wins the College World Series.

But you think it's all predictable. That's why you're fleecing your friends at the MGM sports book every year, right?

I guess you missed my screen shot during one of your banned periods.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

And that's the case for every year.

So is the inability of Jim Morris to win anything in Omaha, if he even manages to fluke his way into the CWS.

2 appearances in 9 years, one single win in Omaha in 9 years.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

When was the last time an ISR # 1 won the CWS?

How about the # 1 national seed?

Or the # 1 team in the Baseball America poll?

I know you won't do this so I will.

Last time the # 1 team in the ISR won the CWS? 2003 Rice.

Last time the # 1 team in Baseball America poll won the CWS? 2001 Miami.

Last time the # 1 national seed won the CWS? 1999 Miami.

What are you even arguing anymore?

You've already admitted that Jim Morris wasn't helpless. That's all I needed to hear. Jim Morris can't get there without luck, and when he does get there he is incapable of winning more than one game.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

So first you used record to determine if a season was great...

We were tied for the 19th best record in 2014 and the 9th best record in 2015. Morris did not post a top 3 record 3 years in a row.

Then you turn on a dime and use RPI....

Why are we using "great" and "2014" in the same sentence? We had an RPI of 15 on selection day.

This is the kind of honesty we can expect from Jagr.

Uh, they both prove the same thing. 2014 wasn't a great season. Great detective work.