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Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

Jaromir Jagr said:
THANK YOU.

After a year, we've finally come to an agreement that there is something Jim Morris could do about it. But he doesn't, anymore. That 2001 CWS, though.......
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So now you're insinuating that I didn't think we could win those games.

Are you really this dense?
 
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Jaromir Jagr said:
Post #556

But you're the same guy who claimed that Florida State and Texas A&M were chalk this year despite playing Sam Houston State and Davidson in their Super Regionals.

Do you really forget that quickly?
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So to prove that I claim that you said favorite, you provided a post where I didn't say favorite.

Good one.

You insinuated that those teams were predictable and and not random.

You were wrong.
 
Me: Show me where I said Florida State and Texas A&M were favorites in their region or Super Regional.

You: I never said you did.

Me: Um, you've only accused me a dozen times of claiming that they were chalk.

You: You did.

And you think people take you seriously.
 
Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
THANK YOU.

After a year, we've finally come to an agreement that there is something Jim Morris could do about it. But he doesn't, anymore. That 2001 CWS, though.......
Click to expand...

So now you're insinuating that I didn't think we could win those games.

Are you really this dense?
Click to expand...

We're making progress.

You used to defend Jim Morris because he has no control over random games. Now we're getting closer to admitting that Morris has been pitiful in Omaha since 2001, if he even managed to get there at all.
 
Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
Post #556

But you're the same guy who claimed that Florida State and Texas A&M were chalk this year despite playing Sam Houston State and Davidson in their Super Regionals.

Do you really forget that quickly?
Click to expand...

So to prove that I claim that you said favorite, you provided a post where I didn't say favorite.
Click to expand...

So "you said they were chalk" is different from "you said they were the favorite".

Troll account?
 
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canesproponent said:
Thinking about this some more.....

You are given a statistically significant sample 2-3 weeks prior to Omaha. The committee picks the 8 best teams based on this data.

How often do the top 8 teams actually make it to Omaha? I would say, maybe, 40% of the time.
Click to expand...

Because the committee relies on flawed data. The RPI doesn't tell us who the best teams are.
 
Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
How do we know? Because 10 teams win 66% of the games in Omaha.
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I looked it up to verify and your statistic means nothing.

Why?

First, because 10 teams is an arbitrary number. There were 32 different teams that won CWS games in the last decade (2008-17). Why 10? It has no significance whatsoever.

These are the 10 schools.

South Carolina - 15
Virginia - 12
LSU -11
TCU - 11
Florida - 11
Vanderbilt - 11
Arizona - 10
UCLA - 9
North Carolina - 8
Texas - 7

The examples of randomness are endless just in these schools listed.

South Carolina won all of those games in 3 successive years. They were on a heater. They didn't even reach Omaha in the two years prior in the sample (2008-09) and haven't made it since (2013-17).

LSU won 9 of their 11 games in two years (2009 and 2017). Same with Vanderbilt.

Florida won all of their games in 3 years (2011, 2015 and 2017). Guess what else they did in 3 seasons? Go 0-2 BBQ! (2010, 2012 and 2016).

UCLA won 8 of their 9 games in 2 years.

Arizona won all 10 of their games in 2 years. Their only CWS wins since 1986.

Texas stunk for most of this period. They had more missed Regionals (3) than they did years with a CWS win (2)!

Predictable? Please.

Going back to the initial point. Why stop at 10? Why not 11?

The 11th team is Coastal Carolina with 6.

Of course all 6 of those wins came in one year (2016).
Click to expand...

Only you could argue that it's random that the same teams continue to win in Omaha.

Remember when Miami was one of those teams?
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
Me: Show me where I said Florida State and Texas A&M were favorites in their region or Super Regional.

You: I never said you did.

Me: Um, you've only accused me a dozen times of claiming that they were chalk.

You: You did.

And you think people take you seriously.
Click to expand...


You did and I did show you.

The entire concept of this thread was that Florida State and Texas A&M were among the "name" programs that were totally predictable.

I don't have to walk anything back.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
You used to defend Jim Morris because he has no control over random games.
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Again. A lie.

Nobody has ever said "nothing we can do" or we had "no control" of those games.

Yet you say this every time.

You don't understand the definitions of words and you can't stop from lying about what people say.
 
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Jaromir Jagr said:
Only you could argue that it's random that the same teams continue to win in Omaha.
Click to expand...

Your numbers have no context.

Are 10 teams a small number? Is 65% a high percentage?

So basically what you're saying is that 1/3 of the teams win 2/3 of the games.

And?

Texas is one of those teams. A program that missed the postseason in 3 of Augie Garrido's last 5 seasons.

The very list of teams itself is random and fluky.
 
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Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
Me: Show me where I said Florida State and Texas A&M were favorites in their region or Super Regional.

You: I never said you did.

Me: Um, you've only accused me a dozen times of claiming that they were chalk.

You: You did.

And you think people take you seriously.
Click to expand...


You did and I did show you.

The entire concept of this thread was that Florida State and Texas A&M were among the "name" programs that were totally predictable.

I don't have to walk anything back.
Click to expand...

Then why did you say "I never said you did." Which one is it?
 
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In other words....

This year three teams (Florida, LSU and TCU) won 75% (12 of 16) of the games in Omaha.

So the cornerstone of Jagr's argument is complete bunk. It means absolutely nothing.
 
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Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
Only you could argue that it's random that the same teams continue to win in Omaha.
Click to expand...

Your numbers have no context.

Are 10 teams a small number? Is 65% a high percentage?

So basically what you're saying is that 1/3 of the teams win 2/3 of the games.

And?

Texas is one of those teams. A program that missed the postseason in 3 of Augie Garrido's last 5 seasons.

The very list of teams itself is random and fluky.
Click to expand...

When there are ~300 teams in the sport and 10 teams win two-thirds of the games on the biggest stage, the sport isn't "random". The best programs get there and the best programs win the majority of the games.

The entire point, which you are inching closer toward acknowledging, is that Miami is no longer one of those teams.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
No one said it wasn't. Quit making stuff up that no one said.
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You certainly did insinuate that with your Virginia praise for saving the ACC.

So basically the entire regular season doesn't prove how good you are and neither does almost the entire postseason. Just a three game series in June.

I don't have to make things up to nail your point.
 
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