Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

[Jaromir Jagr]

The ACC builds it resumes against Dartmouth (sometimes...) and against each other. Then they all fall apart in the post-season.

Which has been directly refuted by the postseason results I posted.

You just make things up.

You refuted nothing. The ACC has done nothing. (Thanks, UVA!!)

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

You guys just can't get out of your own way with this "random" nonsense.

You don't even understand the word. If you did you wouldn't have made some of the dumbest statements I've ever seen on this topic.

The statistical definition of random means that every item has an equal chance. That, of course, is not true in college baseball. How do we know? Because 10 teams win 66% of the games in Omaha.

That's why you look so foolish. You run with a word and don't even know how to apply it.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Jim Morris goes 0-2 in Omaha a week later? Small sample size. Nothing he could do.

And this lie always follow the previous one.

So the games in Omaha are random or not? Pick one.

If they're random, then I'm not a liar. If they aren't random, then Jim Morris stinks in Omaha.

Let me know which one you're rolling with today.

 

[Doppelganger]

Show me where I said Florida State and Texas A&M were favorites in their region or Super Regional. Thanks in advance.

I never said you did.

You have a real hard time with quoting people or even reading posts accurately.

 

[Doppelganger]

The ACC has done nothing.

Except advance their teams to the next round at about the same rate as the SEC.

So unless the SEC is "weak and overrated" then neither is the ACC.

 

[Doppelganger]

The statistical definition of random means that every item has an equal chance.

Embarrassingly wrong.

Again...

Randomness refers to the absence of patterns, order, coherence, and predictability in a system.

 

[Doppelganger]

That, of course, is not true in college baseball. How do we know? Because 10 teams win 66% of the games in Omaha.

You are incredibly ignorant.

Randomness merely means unpredictability and the lack of a pattern. 10 teams winning 66% of games in Omaha doesn't mean that the results are predictable or that a pattern exists.

 

[Doppelganger]

So the games in Omaha are random or not? Pick one.

Of course they are.

You just added the Jagr special: nothing we can do about it.

Which is something that nobody has said.

Of course there's something we could do about it: we could win.

 

[Doppelganger]

If they're random, then I'm not a liar.

Another completely unrelated point.

You always lie. That's a given.

Hence why you always put words in people's mouths.

 

[Doppelganger]

Let me know which one you're rolling with today.

I've been 100% consistent on this.

You're the one who constantly lies, makes up stuff and changes your arguments.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

My sole focus in on making Omaha.

As it is with any rational fan.

Those who whine about how we get there are people who are only interested in being aggrieved.

Or those who whine that we only get there twice in nine years. But nine years is a one-off sample size.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Show me where I said Florida State and Texas A&M were favorites in their region or Super Regional. Thanks in advance.

I never said you did.

You have a real hard time with quoting people or even reading posts accurately.

Um, you've only accused me a dozen times of claiming that they were chalk. Do you know what chalk means, or are you caught in a lie and have to come up with another lie?

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

The statistical definition of random means that every item has an equal chance.

Embarrassingly wrong.

Again...

Randomness refers to the absence of patterns, order, coherence, and predictability in a system.

Did you think it was going to be hard to copy and paste?

random [ran-duh m] Statistics. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Of course there's something we could do about it: we could win.

THANK YOU.

After a year, we've finally come to an agreement that there is something Jim Morris could do about it. But he doesn't, anymore. That 2001 CWS, though.......

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Show me where I said Florida State and Texas A&M were favorites in their region or Super Regional. Thanks in advance.

I never said you did.

You have a real hard time with quoting people or even reading posts accurately.

Post #556

But you're the same guy who claimed that Florida State and Texas A&M were chalk this year despite playing Sam Houston State and Davidson in their Super Regionals.

Do you really forget that quickly?

 

[canesproponent]

This is truly incredible.

Yes, a facet of "random" is that all events have an equal LIKELIHOOD of occurring. If you look at Omaha over 10-years, there are numerous conditions that must be met, however. Namely,: (1.) the teams that made Omaha did so consistently - year after year; and (2.) there must be underlying predictors, or independent variables, that one can use to determine the winner. These "predictors" must be reliable 95% of the time, and must explain ~90% of the variance.

Now, if you said that 80% of Super Regional hosts made Omaha every year, then I would agree that getting to Omaha would not be "as random" (I would prefer 90%, but am ok with 80%). In regard to predicting a winner at Omaha, that is as random as random gets. This year 37.5% of the top 8 teams made Omaha. Am sure that the 37.5% is fairly consistent; therefore, getting to Omaha is definitively a random process.

I am not going to research the teams that made Omaha over the past 10-years, but am SURE that it is highly random. [One way to ascertain this is to look and see what the Vegas betting spreads are in College Baseball at the start of the season; at different points during the season; and during the playoffs. If you compare the "cost" to the bettor, it will be higher for college than for professional sports because it is harder to predict, and Vegas does not want a lucky bet on a random event decimating their book.]

 

[Doppelganger]

How do we know? Because 10 teams win 66% of the games in Omaha.

I looked it up to verify and your statistic means nothing.

Why?

First, because 10 teams is an arbitrary number. There were 32 different teams that won CWS games in the last decade (2008-17). Why 10? It has no significance whatsoever.

These are the 10 schools.

South Carolina - 15
Virginia - 12
LSU -11
TCU - 11
Florida - 11
Vanderbilt - 11
Arizona - 10
UCLA - 9
North Carolina - 8
Texas - 7

The examples of randomness are endless just in these schools listed.

South Carolina won all of those games in 3 successive years. They were on a heater. They didn't even reach Omaha in the two years prior in the sample (2008-09) and haven't made it since (2013-17).

LSU won 9 of their 11 games in two years (2009 and 2017). Same with Vanderbilt.

Florida won all of their games in 3 years (2011, 2015 and 2017). Guess what else they did in 3 seasons? Go 0-2 BBQ! (2010, 2012 and 2016).

UCLA won 8 of their 9 games in 2 years.

Arizona won all 10 of their games in 2 years. Their only CWS wins since 1986.

Texas stunk for most of this period. They had more missed Regionals (3) than they did years with a CWS win (2)!

Predictable? Please.

Going back to the initial point. Why stop at 10? Why not 11?

The 11th team is Coastal Carolina with 6.

Of course all 6 of those wins came in one year (2016).

 

[Doppelganger]

Um, you've only accused me a dozen times of claiming that they were chalk

You did.

Who would have guessed that we would ever see this list of no-name teams in Omaha.....

Cal-State Fullerton
Florida
Florida State
Louisville
LSU
Oregon State
TCU
Texas A&M

Further proof that it's all a big roulette wheel and coaching has no part in it. Random.

I get your sarcasm.

You're saying that these teams were predictable and not random.

You said it and you were wrong.

 

[Doppelganger]

Did you think it was going to be hard to copy and paste?

random [ran-duh m] Statistics. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.

But in your case you're mistaking equal chance with equal outcome.

Your examples of whining about how Miami hasn't been lucky once is proof of that.

 

[canesproponent]

Thinking about this some more.....

You are given a statistically significant sample 2-3 weeks prior to Omaha. The committee picks the 8 best teams based on this data.

How often do the top 8 teams actually make it to Omaha? I would say, maybe, 40% of the time.

In regard to winners ---------- UVA in 2015, Coastal Carolina, Fresno State.... These are all winners that elucidate this point..........