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Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

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Jaromir Jagr said:
Drawing Boston College and Virginia Commonwealth is the only thing that pumped any life into Jim Morris' legacy.
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An obviously silly thing to say.

Again, you think that national seed Miami teams were lucky but Florida State and Texas A&M were just chalk.
 
Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
The College World Series champion would love to feast on the BC's of the world, yes.
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No different then what they currently do to half of their Division in the SEC.
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*than

Every team in every conference has bottom feeders. We just happened to draw a bottom feeder in the Super Regional. Still, every team in every conference would love the opportunity to play Boston College as part of their conference schedule.
 
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Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
O'Sullivan coaches in a tougher conference.
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There's very little evidence for this. If anything the two conferences are very close. You've said the ACC is weak and overrated. Your claims are wildly exaggerated.
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It is weak and overrated, and we collectively prove it every year. Thank goodness for Virginia nutting up and making a couple of nice runs, otherwise we're still hearing about 1955.
 
Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
Drawing Boston College and Virginia Commonwealth is the only thing that pumped any life into Jim Morris' legacy.
Click to expand...

An obviously silly thing to say.

Again, you think that national seed Miami teams were lucky but Florida State and Texas A&M were just chalk.
Click to expand...

Jim Morris is on an 0-for-9 streak against #1 seeds. Drawing BC and VCU is pretty much the definition of lucky.

I'm happy for him, though. If he draws #1 seeds in 2015 and 2016, he would have ended his career on a ten-year streak without going to Omaha. At least he has those two memories to brighten up his final decade.
 
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Jaromir Jagr said:
It is weak and overrated, and we collectively prove it every year.
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I've already shown the metrics that prove you wrong. So here's the "proven" performance records.

This is for the last decade (since 2008).

Regional teams
SEC: 81
ACC: 74

Super Regional teams
SEC: 39 (48.1%)
ACC: 34 (45.9%)

CWS teams
SEC: 24 (29.6%)
ACC: 20 (27.0%)

So basically almost the exact same percentage of teams reach each successive round.

You spout these unsupported (and usually false) claims with such ease. There's no evidence to support what you say.

If you think the ACC is weak and overrated then so is the SEC. You can't argue one and not the other.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
Thank goodness for Virginia nutting up and making a couple of nice runs, otherwise we're still hearing about 1955.
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Thank god for something that doesn't prove conference strength?

You just buy in to the false narratives that people like to push. The ACC has been one of the best conferences in America for almost 15 years. Whether Virginia got went on a heater (or got lucky) one year or not.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
Drawing BC and VCU is pretty much the definition of lucky.
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So you still don't know what random means and you apparently don't know what luck means either.

These were the pre-tournament ISR probabilities (2016) for reaching Omaha in our bracket.

Miami: 48.9%
Ole Miss: 39.6%
FAU: 4.9%
Tulane: 4.2%
Long Beach State: 1.9%
Boston College: 0.5%
Utah: 0.1%
Stetson: 0.0%

And now after the Regional:

Miami: 90.5%
Boston College: 9.5%

So we went from a clear favorite to an overwhelming favorite.

This is "chalk" Texas A&M this year.

North Carolina: 75.6%
Houston: 10.5%
Texas A&M: 5.5%
Baylor: 4.6%
Michigan: 2.9%
Florida Gulf Coast: 0.7%
Iowa: 0.1%
Davidson: 0.0%

And now after the Regional:

Texas A&M: 95.6%
Davidson: 4.4%

So they went from a super long-shot to an overwhelming favorite.

Yet you said Miami was lucky and that Texas A&M was chalk.

You're clueless, Jagr.
 
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He does not root for the Hurricanes. Someone a few months ago divulged the gnome's true allegiance and in turn "Grassy" banned the poster. Gnome's sole purpose is to "stir the pot".

His posit had some validity until UM ventured to Omaha during 2015 and 2016. UM's record between 2014 and 2016 is unassailable, so he now resorts to fabrications and outright lies in order to degradate UM. The team faltered poorly during the first 28 games of the season, so that is now his new mantra since they outperformed ~98% of teams during three seasons.

Gnome also cannot comprehend basic mathematical principles and lies like a cheap rug.
 
canesproponent said:
He does not root for the Hurricanes. Someone a few months ago divulged the gnome's true allegiance and in turn "Grassy" banned the poster. Gnome's sole purpose is to "stir the pot".

His posit had some validity until UM ventured to Omaha during 2015 and 2016. UM's record between 2014 and 2016 is unassailable, so he now resorts to fabrications and outright lies in order to degradate UM. The team faltered poorly during the first 28 games of the season, so that is now his new mantra since they outperformed ~98% of teams during three seasons.

Gnome also cannot comprehend basic mathematical principles and lies like a cheap rug.
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Says the guy who can't figure out how many teams there are in D1 baseball. A real numbers guy.
 
Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
It is weak and overrated, and we collectively prove it every year.
Click to expand...

I've already shown the metrics that prove you wrong. So here's the "proven" performance records.

This is for the last decade (since 2008).

Regional teams
SEC: 81
ACC: 74

Super Regional teams
SEC: 39 (48.1%)
ACC: 34 (45.9%)

CWS teams
SEC: 24 (29.6%)
ACC: 20 (27.0%)

So basically almost the exact same percentage of teams reach each successive round.

You spout these unsupported (and usually false) claims with such ease. There's no evidence to support what you say.

If you think the ACC is weak and overrated then so is the SEC. You can't argue one and not the other.
Click to expand...

So O'Sullivan coaches in a tougher conference. Thanks for providing the evidence.
 
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Miami goes 2-1 in a home Super Regional against a #3 seed = proof that Jim Morris still has it

Miami goes 0-2 in Omaha one week later = random, nothing we could do
 
Exactly my point. If there are 283 or 293 teams, who cares. He does not know any better. 1/283 is quite close to 1/293.....

He is not even a fan. He takes one silly point and runs with it.

Team boasted a 20-11 record during the latter half of the season, and there is a marked influx of talent next year. Gnome realizes that this is his year to "crow".... He will look as foolish next year as he did during 2014 through 2016. DiMare is not going to falter early, either. This may be the "Nole's" only time to gloat for 2-3 years.

Brian refuted him on EVERY SINGLE point, so he resorts to "I know how many teams there are in Division I". Great! Congratulations! Go back to giving directions at your uncle's motel.
 
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canesproponent said:
Exactly my point. If there are 283 or 293 teams, who cares. He does not know any better. 1/283 is quite close to 1/293.....

He is not even a fan. He takes one silly point and runs with it.

Team boasted a 20-11 record during the latter half of the season, and there is a marked influx of talent next year. Gnome realizes that this is his year to "crow".... He will look as foolish next year as he did during 2014 through 2016. DiMare is not going to falter early, either. This may be the "Nole's" only time to gloat for 2-3 years.

Brian refuted him on EVERY SINGLE point, so he resorts to "I know how many teams there are in Division I". Great! Congratulations! Go back to giving directions at your uncle's motel.
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You refuted nothing. As a matter of fact, every time you try to post facts, you ***** something up. Do we need to revisit all of your mistakes?

The proof of your incompetence is your lack of ability to nail down my identity. Now you have someone on Grassy claiming to know who I am? Do tell.
 
You are not even a fan. You are a disgruntled former UM student, who graduated prior to the Foote turnaround and ended up a concierge in the Keys.........

Congratulations on being correct for the first time in 3 years. As a student of math, I see a team that ended 20-12, returns all picthers except Lepore and will have 35 players to choose from in the Fall (yes gnome, we all know they will trim the roster per NCCA rules). Their best player -Amditis- returns, and they will matriculate the 2nd-4th best recruiting class in the country (they only lost 4 players to the draft). They are also bringing in a 90+ MPH pitcher.

I could be wrong, but next year could be another World Series year, which will undoubtedly leave you bereft, desolate and inconsolable. In Spanish, they say "cara". You have a lot of "cara" continuing to show up here after the "*** whooping" Brian laid on you..........
 
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