Everybody agrees 7-6 would be awful. But I still don't understand why so many people are PREDICTING 6-7 wins. We won 9 last year and the roster got better. I expect 10 wins.
I think mostly everybody is of the mindset that a lot of experience is being lost and to expect true freshmen to come in replace redshirt seniors immediately is a tall order. We did win 9 games last year and the talent did get better, but the schedule got significantly harder. Unproven guys like Williams at the most important position and the fact that guys are returning from injury leave a lot of question marks. Couple that with a defensive line that will likely remain just as poor in a scheme that does not play to their strengths, that will keep the defense in an awful state. Lastly, a bad loss to Louisville (very possible.) and later a bad loss to Nebraska (also very possible.) to start the season at 2-2 could get the team to quit, as we've seen before. What 10 games do you see us winning?
Not expecting freshmen to replace redshirt seniors. For every Jimmy Gaines that's leaving, we have a Jermaine Grace or Raphael Kirby waiting who is more talented and has been learning the system.
But if we're expecting these young players to have developed to the point we are all hoping that they have, how come Highsmith, Rodgers II, and Gaines were on the field as untalented and unproductive as they were when better options such as Carter, Grace, Kirby, and Fentress that weren't getting playing time? At worst, they would have been on par production wise.
You still have to know the system. Like it or not, but D'Onofrio runs a conservative D. The last thing he'll do is let a freshman on the field if he thinks there will be an assignment bust. In the case of Rodgers and Highsmith, we run a quarters coverage much of the time. That is very complicated, and you can't expect every true freshman to pick it up quickly. Plus, there is a limit to how many true freshmen you can have on the field at once. AQM, Burns and Figs all played alot.
I'm saying that between Grace and Kirby at LB (and possibly one of Young and Owens if they learn enough this spring), Corn Elder and Jamal Carter in the secondary, and Jelani, McCord, AQM, Kamalu and the JUCO boys on the DL, we should easily be able to replace the minutes the seniors gave us with athletically gifted players who have experience in the system and/or the college level. Not saying they all make the leap (some will, some won't), but chances are enough will so that the D will be upgraded.
If we get production from the true freshmen like we got from AQM, Burns and Figatron, that's a bonus.