Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[mr.h]

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Economic News Release
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CPI

Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by expenditure category​

Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, August 2023[1982-84=100, unless otherwise noted]

Expenditure category	Relative importance Jul. 2023	Unadjusted indexes	Unadjusted percent change	Seasonally adjusted percent change
Aug. 2022	Jul. 2023	Aug. 2023	Aug. 2022- Aug. 2023	Jul. 2023- Aug. 2023	May 2023- Jun. 2023	Jun. 2023- Jul. 2023	Jul. 2023- Aug. 2023
All items	100.000	296.171	305.691	307.026	3.7	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.6
Food	13.415	310.875	323.523	324.100	4.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2
Food at home	8.598	295.007	303.455	303.716	3.0	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.2
Cereals and bakery products	1.168	336.399	356.377	356.563	6.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.5
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs	1.777	318.867	317.445	318.944	0.0	0.5	-0.4	0.5	0.8
Dairy and related products	0.788	267.461	269.143	268.281	0.3	-0.3	-0.3	0.5	-0.4
Fruits and vegetables	1.479	343.221	351.646	350.428	2.1	-0.3	0.8	0.4	-0.2
Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials	1.036	206.693	216.056	216.642	4.8	0.3	-0.1	0.0	-0.2
Other food at home	2.350	259.976	271.276	271.648	4.5	0.1	-0.2	0.2	0.2
Food away from home(1)	4.817	334.212	354.862	356.083	6.5	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.3
Energy	6.961	305.372	284.828	294.328	-3.6	3.3	0.6	0.1	5.6
Energy commodities	3.682	358.038	323.358	342.996	-4.2	6.1	0.8	0.3	10.5
Fuel oil(1)	0.115	466.755	364.304	397.444	-14.8	9.1	-0.4	3.0	9.1
Motor fuel	3.509	351.315	318.891	338.207	-3.7	6.1	0.9	0.2	10.7
Gasoline (all types)	3.428	348.593	318.071	336.979	-3.3	5.9	1.0	0.2	10.6
Energy services	3.280	267.564	259.766	260.448	-2.7	0.3	0.4	-0.1	0.2
Electricity	2.559	265.191	270.268	270.752	2.1	0.2	0.9	-0.7	0.2
Utility (piped) gas service	0.721	268.866	223.290	224.539	-16.5	0.6	-1.7	2.0	0.1
All items less food and energy	79.624	297.178	309.402	310.103	4.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3
Commodities less food and energy commodities	21.208	167.637	168.014	168.029	0.2	0.0	-0.1	-0.3	-0.1
Apparel	2.496	127.328	129.172	131.262	3.1	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.2
New vehicles	4.264	174.598	179.696	179.691	2.9	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.3
Used cars and trucks	2.766	212.895	201.624	198.768	-6.6	-1.4	-0.5	-1.3	-1.2
Medical care commodities(1)	1.464	391.032	406.169	408.437	4.5	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.6
Alcoholic beverages	0.834	275.627	285.580	285.859	3.7	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0
Tobacco and smoking products(1)	0.498	1,364.765	1,431.302	1,440.574	5.6	0.6	0.1	0.5	0.6
Services less energy services	58.416	376.980	398.002	399.219	5.9	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4
Shelter	34.810	357.264	382.226	383.221	7.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3
Rent of primary residence	7.585	373.283	400.210	402.247	7.8	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.5
Owners' equivalent rent of residences(2)	25.616	365.993	391.131	392.794	7.3	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4
Medical care services	6.347	605.883	591.832	592.913	-2.1	0.2	0.0	-0.4	0.1
Physicians' services(1)	1.792	412.828	413.437	413.877	0.3	0.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
Hospital services(1)(3)	1.912	380.339	389.061	391.678	3.0	0.7	0.4	-0.4	0.7
Transportation services	5.920	362.511	396.199	400.016	10.3	1.0	0.1	0.3	2.0
Motor vehicle maintenance and repair(1)	1.131	349.539	387.159	391.395	12.0	1.1	1.3	1.0	1.1
Motor vehicle insurance	2.697	615.559	717.799	733.141	19.1	2.1	1.7	2.0	2.4
Airline fares	0.537	283.911	253.345	246.185	-13.3	-2.8	-8.1	-8.1	4.9

 

[Cmuri]

View attachment 256236

For retail investors, jumping on Arm's blockbuster IPO is a risky business

Retail traders should beware: individual investors often get burned when they jump on hot listings.

www.reuters.com

I think ARM will do well though. Nvidia was trying to buy them for $30-$40B. I’ve had bad luck on these big blockbuster ipos but not all ipos have been bad. Kura sushi(ipo $15) has done well and BNTX rocketed thanks to the pandemic (ipo $12). Just a couple examples off the top of my head.

 

[mr.h]

08:30		USD	Initial Jobless Claims(Sep 8)		220K	-	225K	216K
08:30		USD	Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Sep 8)		224.5K	-	-	229.25K
08:30		USD	Producer Price Index (MoM)(Aug) TRADE NOW		0.7%	1.53	0.4%	0.3%
08:30		USD	Producer Price Index (YoY)(Aug) TRADE NOW		1.6%	2.24	1.2%	0.8%
08:30		USD	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Aug)		0.2%	-	0.2%	0.3%
08:30		USD	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Aug)		2.2%	0	2.2%	2.4%
08:30		USD	Retail Sales (MoM)(Aug) TRADE NOW		0.6%	1.04	0.2%	0.5%
08:30		USD	Retail Sales Control Group(Aug)		0.1%	-	-	0.7%
08:30		USD	Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Aug) TRADE NOW		0.6%	0.57	0.4%	0.7%

PPI YOY higher
PPI YOY ex food and energy did not rise
Retail sales higher
Jobless claims down slightly

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[Bird4um]

Wish teachers union had some balls. Never been to arbitrage. Always accept the BS package.

 

[mr.h]

08:30		USD	Export Price Index (MoM)(Aug) TRADE NOW		1.3%	1.22	0.3%	0.5%
08:30		USD	Export Price Index (YoY)(Aug)		-5.5%	-	-	-7.9%
08:30		USD	Import Price Index (MoM)(Aug) TRADE NOW		0.5%	0.68	0.3%	0.1%
08:30		USD	Import Price Index (YoY)(Aug)		-3%	-	-	-4.4%
08:30		USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Sep) TRADE NOW		1.9	0.54	-10	-19

NY Empire Manufacturing Index jumps..bullish for the $

 

[JD08]

Wish teachers union had some balls. Never been to arbitrage. Always accept the BS package.

Maybe they should get pay for performance. Arbitration is negotiation presided over by an impartial party. Arbitrage is leverage different prices for the same thing in different markets and is commonly used in trading currency.

 

[mr.h]

Wish teachers union had some balls. Never been to arbitrage. Always accept the BS package.

There are to many administrators and office personnel In County, State and Federal positions. Some are just working out of their home. Move these people to teaching positions. That will also strengthen the unions.

 

[SpikeUM]

I think ARM will do well though. Nvidia was trying to buy them for $30-$40B. I’ve had bad luck on these big blockbuster ipos but not all ipos have been bad. Kura sushi(ipo $15) has done well and BNTX rocketed thanks to the pandemic (ipo $12). Just a couple examples off the top of my head.

Arm Stock Now Trades in Rare Territory. It Needs to Figure Out AI—and Fast.

Arm Holdings closed its first day as a public company priced at more than 25 times sales and 100 times profit. It’s a pricey bet on AI.

www.barrons.com

 

[mr.h]

No raise in rates
the UAW strike won’t last.
oil prices won hold up.
the Republican House will not shut down the government.
the market is hot…..jmo
If anything spooks the market, it’s a buying opportunity.

 

[mr.h]

08:30		USD	Building Permits (MoM)(Aug)		1.543M	0.31	1.445M	1.443M
08:30		USD	Building Permits Change(Aug)		6.9%	-	-	0.1%
08:30		USD	Housing Starts (MoM)(Aug)		1.283M	-1.62	1.44M	1.452M

I think the majority of home buyers believe they will be able to refinance in the future.

 

[SpikeUM]

Arm Gets Its First Sell Rating. Bernstein Expects the Stock to Plunge.

The company makes money from licensing its chip architecture and other chip designs to semiconductor companies and hardware makers.

www.barrons.com

 

[90scane]

No hike. FED balance sheet could be under 8T in the next month which is the biggest drop in history (almost $1T off the books).

 

[mr.h]

No hike. FED balance sheet could be under 8T in the next month which is the biggest drop in history (almost $1T off the books).

14:00		USD	Fed Interest Rate Decision		5.5%	0.00	5.5%	5.5%
14:00		USD	Fed's Monetary Policy Statement		REPORT
14:00		USD	FOMC Economic Projections		REPORT
14:00		USD	Interest Rate Projections - 1st year		5.1%	-	-	4.6%
14:00		USD	Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year		3.9%	-	-	3.4%
14:00		USD	Interest Rate Projections - 3rd year		2.9%	-	-	3.1%
14:00		USD	Interest Rate Projections - Current		5.6%	-	-	5.6%
14:00		USD	Interest Rate Projections - Longer		2.5%	-	-	2.5%
14:30		USD	FOMC Press Conference		SPEECH

 

[mr.h]

08:30		USD	Continuing Jobless Claims(Sep 8)		1.662M	-1.56	1.695M	1.683M
08:30		USD	Current Account(Q2)		$-212.1B	0.64	$-221B	$-214.5B
08:30		USD	Initial Jobless Claims(Sep 15)		201K	-4.21	225K	221K
08:30		USD	Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Sep 15)		217K	-	-	224.75K

jobless claims down
rates will stay higher for longer and Powell talking about another hike, but it’s not set in stone.

 

[TheEye]

Expect these rates to be the new normal. They are in line with historical averages. Imagine a time when mortgages were actually demanding (gasp) more than 7.5%! Parish the thought!

If mortgage rates go above 8.5% we may hit a tipping point.

 

[mr.h]

Expect these rates to be the new normal. They are in line with historical averages. Imagine a time when mortgages were actually demanding (gasp) more than 7.5%! Parish the thought!

If mortgage rates go above 8.5% we may hit a tipping point.

I remember those days….on the other hand the economy is strong. Just look at the numbers.
I believe home buyers are going in with the idea of refinancing.

 

[90scane]

I remember those days….on the other hand the economy is strong. Just look at the numbers.
I believe home buyers are going in with the idea of refinancing.

The numbers keep getting revised to look worse (employment). We are just getting started on the longer tail of higher rates.
I think refinancing is happening because homeowners need cash with consumer debt on the rise.

If mortgage rates go above 8.5% we may hit a tipping point.

That would likely mean FED going up another full point. Rates are currently 7.5% which is around the norm of 2pts over FED Funds. With the FED pausing, we could see rates dropping some as banks look to capture revenue at higher revenue with lower FED Funds coming in the next 12ish months.


More likely tipping points:
Consumer Debt continues NORTH
More banks start failing due to Commerical RE and potentially some due to consumer debt defaults
Consumers don't qualify for refinancing and/or can't find a bank willing to refi this higher-risk consumer... leading to higher foreclosures and/or bankruptcies
Unemployment (keeps getting revised to look worse) goes up leading to more consumer issues
The cost of borrowing especially urgent credit (cards, business lines, personal lines...) becomes very costly to the borrower AND tougher to get. Commercial and Consumers alike.
Multi-family apartments aren't flooding the market BUT there are a ton of doors getting added which will reduce the pressure on the single-family market as rent rates drop due to extra supply.

Then the FED pivots due to the slowdown (2024) and we hit a full recession in late 2024 or more like 2025. The FED will likely have reduced their balance sheet to 6T maybe 4-5T if they get super lucky. 2025 hits and IF the blue wave hits Congress we see a big spend to help consumers with tax credits etc.

Thus, 6-12 months before we see real issues. If 6, republicans win Congress. If 12, democrats win Congress. 18-24 months before we hit the bottom with residential real estate likely at the bottom around the same time depending on markets (some won't drop and some have already had massive drops). As soon as rates get under 7%, that market will start heating up but I don't think that happens for another 12-18 months.

Things like student debt forgiveness could give a large % of consumers a lifeline to keep spending. In the end, it just kicks the debt to the government or private sector. The FED doing QT and sucking trillions out of the economy WILL cause a recession. IT will happen if they continue to do so because the 9-10T of covid QE was spent and now they are pulling trillions back.

 

[TheEye]

The numbers keep getting revised to look worse (employment). We are just getting started on the longer tail of higher rates.
I think refinancing is happening because homeowners need cash with consumer debt on the rise.


That would likely mean FED going up another full point. Rates are currently 7.5% which is around the norm of 2pts over FED Funds. With the FED pausing, we could see rates dropping some as banks look to capture revenue at higher revenue with lower FED Funds coming in the next 12ish months.


More likely tipping points:
Consumer Debt continues NORTH
More banks start failing due to Commerical RE and potentially some due to consumer debt defaults
Consumers don't qualify for refinancing and/or can't find a bank willing to refi this higher-risk consumer... leading to higher foreclosures and/or bankruptcies
Unemployment (keeps getting revised to look worse) goes up leading to more consumer issues
The cost of borrowing especially urgent credit (cards, business lines, personal lines...) becomes very costly to the borrower AND tougher to get. Commercial and Consumers alike.
Multi-family apartments aren't flooding the market BUT there are a ton of doors getting added which will reduce the pressure on the single-family market as rent rates drop due to extra supply.

Then the FED pivots due to the slowdown (2024) and we hit a full recession in late 2024 or more like 2025. The FED will likely have reduced their balance sheet to 6T maybe 4-5T if they get super lucky. 2025 hits and IF the blue wave hits Congress we see a big spend to help consumers with tax credits etc.

Thus, 6-12 months before we see real issues. If 6, republicans win Congress. If 12, democrats win Congress. 18-24 months before we hit the bottom with residential real estate likely at the bottom around the same time depending on markets (some won't drop and some have already had massive drops). As soon as rates get under 7%, that market will start heating up but I don't think that happens for another 12-18 months.

Things like student debt forgiveness could give a large % of consumers a lifeline to keep spending. In the end, it just kicks the debt to the government or private sector. The FED doing QT and sucking trillions out of the economy WILL cause a recession. IT will happen if they continue to do so because the 9-10T of covid QE was spent and now they are pulling trillions back.

Those sound like sound predictions. I don’t buy this “recession is just around the corner” talk when we are looking at smooth sailing for at least another year. 2 years maybe, but for now I don’t see disaster looming.

 

[mr.h]

The numbers keep getting revised to look worse (employment). We are just getting started on the longer tail of higher rates.
I think refinancing is happening because homeowners need cash with consumer debt on the rise.


That would likely mean FED going up another full point. Rates are currently 7.5% which is around the norm of 2pts over FED Funds. With the FED pausing, we could see rates dropping some as banks look to capture revenue at higher revenue with lower FED Funds coming in the next 12ish months.


More likely tipping points:
Consumer Debt continues NORTH
More banks start failing due to Commerical RE and potentially some due to consumer debt defaults
Consumers don't qualify for refinancing and/or can't find a bank willing to refi this higher-risk consumer... leading to higher foreclosures and/or bankruptcies
Unemployment (keeps getting revised to look worse) goes up leading to more consumer issues
The cost of borrowing especially urgent credit (cards, business lines, personal lines...) becomes very costly to the borrower AND tougher to get. Commercial and Consumers alike.
Multi-family apartments aren't flooding the market BUT there are a ton of doors getting added which will reduce the pressure on the single-family market as rent rates drop due to extra supply.

Then the FED pivots due to the slowdown (2024) and we hit a full recession in late 2024 or more like 2025. The FED will likely have reduced their balance sheet to 6T maybe 4-5T if they get super lucky. 2025 hits and IF the blue wave hits Congress we see a big spend to help consumers with tax credits etc.

Thus, 6-12 months before we see real issues. If 6, republicans win Congress. If 12, democrats win Congress. 18-24 months before we hit the bottom with residential real estate likely at the bottom around the same time depending on markets (some won't drop and some have already had massive drops). As soon as rates get under 7%, that market will start heating up but I don't think that happens for another 12-18 months.

Things like student debt forgiveness could give a large % of consumers a lifeline to keep spending. In the end, it just kicks the debt to the government or private sector. The FED doing QT and sucking trillions out of the economy WILL cause a recession. IT will happen if they continue to do so because the 9-10T of covid QE was spent and now they are pulling trillions back.

The economy is still strong, although I don’t rule anything out.