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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

MONDAY
Stocks were higher in Europe and Asia on Monday following a report that signaled the US jobs market, while still healthy, shows some signs of cooling, raising hopes for an easing of interest rate hikes.

Germany's DAX advanced 0.7% to 15,949.69 and the CAC 40 in Paris picked up 0.8% to 7,354.96. In London, the FTSE 100 was up 0.8% at 7,522.38.

The futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.2%. U.S. markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday.

"It appears that global markets are primed to be smitten with the idea of a ‘Nirvana' Fed tightening outcome, entailing the ‘immaculate dis-inflation' that does not cause employment pain," Tan Boon Heng of Mizuho Bank said in a commentary.

Apart from the favorable jobs data, fresh stimulus from China's financial regulators for the beleaguered property sector also supported buying. They have cut down-payment requirements for first and second-time home buyers and lowered rates on existing mortgages, noted Yeap Jun Rong of IG.
 

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mr.h said:
Today..
Data out Tuesday showed China’s services activity fell to its lowest level in eight months in August, reviving worries about recovery in the world's second-biggest economy — and what that means for demand globally.

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t a weak Chinese economy mean lower prices.
Click to expand...

It should indicate lower commodity prices, but oil is now at $90, so go figure. Remember though, that as their economy slows, it will also cause the rest of the worlds economies to slow too since they would be importing/spending less.
 
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:45USDS&P Global Composite PMI(Aug) 50.2-50.450.4
09:45USDS&P Global Services PMI(Aug) 50.5-5151
Shows manufacturing and services lower..but anything 50 or above shows growth, albeit slower
 
SpikeUM said:
It should indicate lower commodity prices, but oil is now at $90, so go figure. Remember though, that as their economy slows, it will also cause the rest of the worlds economies to slow too since they would be importing/spending less.
Click to expand...
The cartels have a strangle hold on oil prices and Europe does not have the infrastructure for our Nat. Gas or LNG.
we have more gas reserves than the Saudis have oil.
 
USDISM Services Employment Index(Aug)54.7--50.7
10:00USDISM Services New Orders Index(Aug)57.5--55
10:00USDISM Services PMI(Aug)54.51.0052.552.7
10:00USDISM Services Prices Paid(Aug)58.9--56.8
non-manufacturing services are up..
our economy is still strong, but will be looked at as inflationary
 
mr.h said:
The cartels have a strangle hold on oil prices and Europe does not have the infrastructure for our Nat. Gas or LNG.
we have more gas reserves than the Saudis have oil.
Click to expand...

Two sides to every story.....this administration started a war on our domestic energy industry, a natural consequence of that is to give the oil cartels more power. Remember that we have not refilled the SPR, which is supposed to be for emergencies, not to get re-elected.

Europe has its own war on fossil fuels, which is why the got caught with their pants down and butt cheeks open. However, I am fairly certain they are in the process of creating huge capacity for our gas.
 
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08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Aug 25)1.679M-2.031.715M1.719M
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Sep 1)216K-234K229K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Sep 1)229.25K--237.5K
08:30USDNonfarm Productivity(Q2)3.5% -3.8%3.7%
08:30USDUnit Labor Costs(Q2)2.2% -1.6%1.6%

OY….jobless numbers down. Good = bad
Productivity dropped which has an influence on GDP
If companies make working at the office mandatory, then we will see unemployment rise, for a myriad of reasons.
 
mr.h said:
The cartels have a strangle hold on oil prices and Europe does not have the infrastructure for our Nat. Gas or LNG.
we have more gas reserves than the Saudis have oil.
Click to expand...

If you believe this decision is right for the environment, thats your right, BUT the natural consequence is that gas prices/inflation will go up, and OPEC will have more power.

Proposal would prohibit new leasing on more than 40% of state’s National Petroleum Reserve​


www.wsj.com

Biden Administration Moves to Block Oil Drilling on Millions of Acres of Alaskan Wilderness

The proposal would prohibit new leasing on more than 40% of the state’s National Petroleum Reserve.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
SpikeUM said:
If you believe this decision is right for the environment, thats your right, BUT the natural consequence is that gas prices/inflation will go up, and OPEC will have more power.

Proposal would prohibit new leasing on more than 40% of state’s National Petroleum Reserve​


www.wsj.com

Biden Administration Moves to Block Oil Drilling on Millions of Acres of Alaskan Wilderness

The proposal would prohibit new leasing on more than 40% of the state’s National Petroleum Reserve.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
Click to expand...
I saw that. Biden obviously needs the left wing of his party to back him 100%. The environmentalists are happy.

Muh APPL is down 7% this week as China is squeezing them. The handwriting was on the wall as APPL is making new deals with India and Vietnam. At some point it will become a screaming buy, but where is the bottom?
I think I read that our $ is at a 16 year high against the Yuan. As far as China is concerned, we import a lot more than we export. It should also help with commodities.
 
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SpikeUM said:
If you believe this decision is right for the environment, thats your right, BUT the natural consequence is that gas prices/inflation will go up, and OPEC will have more power.

Proposal would prohibit new leasing on more than 40% of state’s National Petroleum Reserve​


www.wsj.com

Biden Administration Moves to Block Oil Drilling on Millions of Acres of Alaskan Wilderness

The proposal would prohibit new leasing on more than 40% of the state’s National Petroleum Reserve.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
Click to expand...
Just blew up Montana Senator John Tester's chances of winning re-election next year.
 
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mr.h said:
I saw that. Biden obviously needs the left wing of his party to back him 100%. The environmentalists are happy.

Muh APPL is down 7% this week as China is squeezing them. The handwriting was on the wall as APPL is making new deals with India and Vietnam. At some point it will become a screaming buy, but where is the bottom?
I think I read that our $ is at a 16 year high against the Yuan. As far as China is concerned, we import a lot more than we export. It should also help with commodities.
Click to expand...
This relates to our conversation above, China slowing is a positive for inflation, but its a negative for our exports and business profits.
 
SpikeUM said:
This relates to our conversation above, China slowing is a positive for inflation, but its a negative for our exports and business profits.
Click to expand...
We import a lot more than we export. Trump and Biden both did a lot to ween us off China’s teat.
That is why they are going to squeeze American companies, because they see the handwriting on the wall.
It always amazes me that we don’t transfer production to countries in our hemisphere. The labor is just as cheap, but with that said, India will be the next China.
 
@mr.h I am not opining on AAPL, but here is some commentary from Barrons.

The chart​

It’s well known that when Apple shares fall, their roughly 7% weighting in the S&P 500 means the market in aggregate tends to suffer. But as the table from Vanda Research shows, it’s notably worse for the portfolio’s of retail investors. They’ll be really hoping nothing bad happens to Tesla (TSLA), too.

1694209624442.png
 
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With a large percentage of SP500 owned via pensions and 401ks, do we see a sell off if consumers truly run out of cash and have to start using 401k funds and/or stop investing in their 401k? OR does the sell off get triggered more so by downward profits then it gets extended as people panic?
 
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