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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

The economy isn’t strong. It is afloat.

Unemployment is rolling over. Consumer debt is at an all time high over $1T. Government debt(every country) is insanely high. The FED hasn’t pulled the E brake but it sure as heck has downshifted while braking. We haven’t had a negative business cycle since 2007. At some point, the party will end and a new cycle will begin.
 
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09:45USDS&P Global Composite PMI(Sep) PREL50.1--50.2
09:45USDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Sep) PREL480.004847.9
09:45USDS&P Global Services PMI(Sep) PREL TRADE NOW50.2-0.5750.650.5
Anything over 50 shows expansion.
Services outperforming Manufacturing
no major changes. Nothing inflationary. Pretty much Goldilocks numbers
Fed’s Collins - keep rates higher longer and hinting a rate hike is possible, this year.
 
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90scane said:
The economy isn’t strong. It is afloat.

Unemployment is rolling over. Consumer debt is at an all time high over $1T. Government debt(every country) is insanely high. The FED hasn’t pulled the E brake but it sure as heck has downshifted while braking. We haven’t had a negative business cycle since 2007. At some point, the party will end and a new cycle will begin.
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I am still concerned re stagflation
 
90scane said:
I would expect to see that in the next year: 3% inflation and unemployment rising into 2024.

Maybe once unemployment rises we see inflation drop.
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I hope its only 3%....the new labor contracts are for much more than that, fed spending is still exploding and they still have the war on oil.
 
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Just finished Isaacson's Musk book. Takeways: Musk is an ******* and an extremely intense visionary in the same category as Jobs. If something happens to Musk sell your shares immediately.
 
08:55USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Sep 22) 3.8% --3.6%
09:00USDHousing Price Index (MoM)(Jul) TRADE NOW0.8% 1.550.5% 0.4%
09:00USDS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)(Jul) TRADE NOW0.1% 2.26-0.5% -1.2%
Year over year same store sales up
housing prices up
 
mr.h said:
08:55USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Sep 22)3.8% --3.6%
09:00USDHousing Price Index (MoM)(Jul) TRADE NOW0.8% 1.550.5%0.4%
09:00USDS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)(Jul) TRADE NOW0.1% 2.26-0.5%-1.2%
Year over year same store sales up
housing prices up
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Which column is year over year? If housing prices are flat from last year that supports my narrative about core inflation. I think the price will be similar to last year’s come Dec.
 
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TheEye said:
Which column is year over year? If housing prices are flat from last year that supports my narrative about core inflation. I think the price will be similar to last year’s come Dec.
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When you see [YOY]…and they are up fractionally.
Durable goods tomorrow
GDP and Jobless Claims Thursday
Higher rates for longer, hurting the mkt.
 
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90scane said:
www.cnbc.com

Credit card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis

Goldman Sachs predicts credit card losses will continue to climb through the end of 2024 or early 2025 for most issuers.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Consumers are hurting. I'd love to see how much of the consumer debt is spent on housing. As a landlord, I see too many tenants paying rent with a CC.
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www.barrons.com

Jamie Dimon Warns Interest Rates Could Reach 7%

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned the Federal Reserve could be forced to raise interest rates further in a worst-case scenario.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com
 
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SpikeUM said:
www.barrons.com

Jamie Dimon Warns Interest Rates Could Reach 7%

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned the Federal Reserve could be forced to raise interest rates further in a worst-case scenario.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com
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I have no idea how the equities have held on for so long.

More bank failures have to be coming soon.
The consumer debt crisis is also on the horizon.
Government debt is at an all-time high.
The FED balance sheet is $1T off its all-time high.
Commercial RE (especially office space and malls) have lost a ton of value leading to massive MTM losses for owners and banks.
 
90scane said:
I have no idea how the equities have held on for so long.

More bank failures have to be coming soon.
The consumer debt crisis is also on the horizon.
Government debt is at an all-time high.
The FED balance sheet is $1T off its all-time high.
Commercial RE (especially office space and malls) have lost a ton of value leading to massive MTM losses for owners and banks.
Click to expand...
Until unemployment skyrockets, they'll continue to believe in MMT and print money. Once unemployment does start to rise, we're all screwed.
 
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JD08 said:
Until unemployment skyrockets, they'll continue to believe in MMT and print money. Once unemployment does start to rise, we're all screwed.
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That’s what Powell is trying to do. Republican candidates are saying they will replace him.
 
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