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Memnon said:
I don't claim to know more than NFL evaluators, I never said that.

You're missing the point.

Again, the majority of top QB's in the drafted in the 1st round, especially in the top 5, end up as busts. 64% is the actual rate. So what does that tell you?
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We’ll just agree to disagree. Let’s see what the Beck-Ward comparison looks like after this season as well as 2-3 years down the road.
 
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1st round QB's that have been drafted over the last 7 years.

2017:
- Mitchell Trubisky (#2 overall pick)
- Pat Mahomes (#10 pick)
- DeShaun Watson (#12 pick)

2018:
- Baker Mayfield (#1 pick)
- Sam Darnold (#3 pick)
- Josh Allen (#7 pick)
- Josh Rosen (#10 pick)
- Lamar Jackson (#32 pick)

2019:
- Kyle Murray (#1 pick)
- Daniel Jones (#6 pick)
- Dwayne Haskins (#15 pick)

2020:
- Joe Burrow (#1 pick)
- Tua Tagovailoa (#5 pick)
- Justin Herbert (#6 pick)
- Jordan Love (#26 pick)

2021:
- Trevor Lawrence (#1 pick)
- Zach Wilson (#2 pick)
- Trey Lance (#3 pick)
- Justin Fields (#11 pick)
- Mac Jones (#15 pick)

2022:
- Kenny Pickett (#20 pick)

2023:
- Bryce Young (#1 pick)
- CJ Stroud (#2 pick)
- Anthony Richardson (#4 pick)

So again, being a #1 pick, or a 1st round pick in general doesn't really mean anything. The drafts every year are littered with QB's who get picked high who bust. So just because Beck may get picked #1 or somewhere high in the 1st round, does. not. mean. he. will. be. a. good. QB. The odds of him being a bust if he's picked #1 are actually higher than him becoming an All-pro.
 
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Memnon said:
1st round QB's that have been drafted over the last 7 years.

2017:
- Mitchell Trubisky (#2 overall pick)
- Pat Mahomes (#10 pick)
- DeShaun Watson (#12 pick)

2018:
- Baker Mayfield (#1 pick)
- Sam Darnold (#3 pick)
- Josh Allen (#7 pick)
- Josh Rosen (#10 pick)
- Lamar Jackson (#32 pick)

2019:
- Kyle Murray (#1 pick)
- Daniel Jones (#6 pick)
- Dwayne Haskins (#15 pick)

2020:
- Joe Burrow (#1 pick)
- Tua Tagovailoa (#5 pick)
- Justin Herbert (#6 pick)
- Jordan Love (#26 pick)

2021:
- Trevor Lawrence (#1 pick)
- Zach Wilson (#2 pick)
- Trey Lance (#3 pick)
- Justin Fields (#11 pick)
- Mac Jones (#15 pick)

2022:
- Kenny Pickett (#20 pick)

2023:
- Bryce Young (#1 pick)
- CJ Stroud (#2 pick)
- Anthony Richardson (#4 pick)

So again, being a #1 pick, or a 1st round pick in general doesn't really mean anything. The drafts every year are littered with QB's who get picked high who bust. So just because Beck may get picked #1 or somewhere high in the 1st round, does. not. mean. he. will. be. a. good. QB. The odds of him being a bust if he's picked #1 are actually higher than him becoming an All-pro.
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Can't you argue that those are 7 of the top 10 QBs in the league?

I disagree with your statement, and logic would serve that being a 1st round pick definitely means you have a much higher rate of success than not being one.

This is the same argument that people have around 5 star prospects, that it doesn't mean anything yet they definitely succeed at a MUCH higher rate than the rest. It doesn't matter that more flop than succeed, the fact is that they succeed at a higher clip than the others.

also, **** Georgia and I hope your right about him and Bobo ***** the bed
 
PUNCICANE said:
Can't you argue that those are 7 of the top 10 QBs in the league?

I disagree with your statement, and logic would serve that being a 1st round pick definitely means you have a much higher rate of success than not being one.

This is the same argument that people have around 5 star prospects, that it doesn't mean anything yet they definitely succeed at a MUCH higher rate than the rest. It doesn't matter that more flop than succeed, the fact is that they succeed at a higher clip than the others.

also, **** Georgia and I hope your right about him and Bobo ***** the bed
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Sure if there were only 10 teams in the league... But there's 32, that's only 21%.
 
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PUNCICANE said:
I said "top 10", not starting. There are far more starters on that list and Love will probably be a top 10 QB this year too.
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I'm aware.

My point this entire time has been, Carson Beck being drafted high doesn't mean anything, hence the numerous QB's who have been drafted high & been a bust.

I'm not sure how people keep missing that point, it seems pretty clear I thought.
 
Memnon said:
I'm aware.

My point this entire time has been, Carson Beck being drafted high doesn't mean anything, hence the numerous QB's who have been drafted high & been a bust.

I'm not sure how people keep missing that point, it seems pretty clear I thought.
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The problem is none of that means he can't win in college. Mediocre QBs are the new wave.
 
cway313 said:
The problem is none of that means he can't win in college. Mediocre QBs are the new wave.
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I'm not & haven't been talking about College this entire time.

My original point was that people get easily fooled by QB's who win & look good in college because they play on really good teams. Which in turn gets them drafted higher than they should. Hence the long list of high draft picks who wound up as busts.
 
Memnon said:
I'm not & haven't been talking about College this entire time.

My original point was that people get easily fooled by QB's who win & look good in college because they play on really good teams. Which in turn gets them drafted higher than they should. Hence the long list of high draft picks who wound up as busts.
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You said UGA and 8-4 because of the QB not having Bowers. Mccathry just won 15 games.
 
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cway313 said:
You said UGA and 8-4 because of the QB not having Bowers. Mccathry just won 15 games.
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No I didn't.

I said 8-4 because the Offense will sink without Bowers, but that's not the sole reason why I have them going 8-4.

But nevermind, I'm noticing you all have trouble following along, so I'm not about to keep trying to explain this sh*t to yall.
 
Memnon said:
I'm aware.

My point this entire time has been, Carson Beck being drafted high doesn't mean anything, hence the numerous QB's who have been drafted high & been a bust.

I'm not sure how people keep missing that point, it seems pretty clear I thought.
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You are most likely right about him ending up a bust and I have my money on Cam outperforming him over their careers.

However, the higher someone is drafted, the higher probability they have of succeeding... The math is proven.
 
Memnon said:
No I didn't.

I said 8-4 because the Offense will sink without Bowers, but that's not the sole reason why I have them going 8-4.

But nevermind, I'm noticing you all have trouble following along, so I'm not about to keep trying to explain this sh*t to yall.
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I missed how this turned to NFL talk. I think Beck can be Bennett which was where I started this. It doesn't take great QB play to win in college. Whole convo shifted to something else.
 
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Memnon said:
Kiss my grits
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schitts creek ok GIF by CBC
 
cway313 said:
I missed how this turned to NFL talk. I think Beck can be Bennett which was where I started this. It doesn't take great QB play to win in college. Whole convo shifted to something else.
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i don't think it shifted. it started on a single point and expanded to a greater discussion. i actually think you and @Memnon agree on what he is saying, he is just getting into surrounding details for why a team will be middle of the pack as opposed to a title contender.
 
ben said:
i don't think it shifted. it started on a single point and expanded to a greater discussion. i actually think you and @Memnon agree on what he is saying, he is just getting into surrounding details for why a team will be middle of the pack as opposed to a title contender.
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Ina beef LCE x cway... ima have to roll with the later. Demz the rulez. :LOL:
 
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