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ESPN and Playoff Conversation Points

ZeroBeachCane3 said:
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John Candy No GIF by Laff
 
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One thing that works in our favor is just how bad that last Bama loss was. Held to 3 points by a dog OU team that finished .500.
 
This is what I’ve heard:

1. Ole Miss is really not that much of a factor. The loss to UK at home cannot be undervalued.
2. Bama & Miami r the two battling for the last at large spot.

Case for Miami:
-10 win season
-Prolific offense that can play with anyone
-Both losses were on the road to teams that exceeded pre season expectations

Case against Miami
-Haven’t played a top 25 team all season
-Vegas Odds, Miami not covering in several games vs. P4 opponents:
•17.5 against VA Tech (won by 4)
•10.5 against Cal (won by 1)
•11.5 against GT (loss by 5)
•10.5 against Cuse (loss by 4)
-S.O.S:
•FPI (11th)
•SOS (55th)
•AVGWP - Avg. Win Probability % (21st)
•GC - Game Control meaning the ability to control the outcome of match up from start to finish (19th)

Case for Bama:
-Wins vs. 3 Top 25 opponents including a Top 12 CFP team
-Vegas Odds:
•16.5 against vs. Wisconsin (won by 32)
•1.5 underdogs against UGA (won by 7)
•16.5 against Mizzou (won by 34)
•2.5 against LSU (won by 29)
-SOS:
•FPI (4th)
•SOS (17th)
•AVGWP (11th)
•GC (5th)

Case Against Bama
•2 horrible losses against two 6-6 teams
•Milroe’s inconsistencies
•3 losses on their resume

What it’s going to boil down to is the eye test; on one hand, the perception of Bama is they tend to get complacent against inferior competition, while rising against superior competition. Since VA Tech, Miami’s perception is we’ve struggled against inferior competition all season, needing miraculous & auspicious circumstances to achieve 10 wins.

The committee will be looking at nerd stats + complete body of work. My guy said if he had to put in a gut feeling, it would be Miami edging out Bama on the initial roll out of 12 b/c of perceived backlash that may come about. He also said Miami’s slim chance is hanging upon SMU upsetting Clemson. He said from all sources that Clemson winning will knock out both Miami & Bama b/c the committee might feel compelled in putting SMU in as an at large.
 
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Rellyrell said:
This is what I’ve heard:

1. Ole Miss is really not that much of a factor. The loss to UK at home cannot be undervalued.
2. Bama & Miami r the two battling for the last at large spot.

Case for Miami:
-10 win season
-Prolific offense that can play with anyone
-Both losses were on the road to teams that exceeded pre season expectations

Case against Miami
-Haven’t played a top 25 team all season
-Vegas Odds, Miami not covering in several games vs. P4 opponents:
•17.5 against VA Tech (won by 4)
•10.5 against Cal (won by 1)
•11.5 against GT (loss by 5)
•10.5 against Cuse (loss by 4)
-S.O.S:
•FPI (11th)
•SOS (55th)
•AVGWP - Avg. Win Probability % (21st)
•GC - Game Control meaning the ability to control the outcome of match up from start to finish (19th)

Case for Bama:
-Wins vs. 3 Top 25 opponents including a Top 12 CFP team
-Vegas Odds:
•16.5 against vs. Wisconsin (won by 32)
•1.5 underdogs against UGA (won by 7)
•16.5 against Mizzou (won by 34)
•2.5 against LSU (won by 29)
-SOS:
•FPI (4th)
•SOS (17th)
•AVGWP (11th)
•GC (5th)

Case Against Bama
•2 horrible losses against two 6-6 teams
•Milroe’s inconsistencies
•3 losses on their resume

What it’s going to boil down to is the eye test; on one hand, the perception of Bama is they tend to get complacent against inferior competition, while rising against superior competition. Since VA Tech, Miami’s perception is we’ve struggled against inferior competition all season, needing miraculous & auspicious circumstances to achieve 10 wins.

The committee will be looking at nerd stats + complete body of work. My guy said if he had to put in a gut feeling, it would be Miami edging out Bama on the initial roll out of 12 b/c of perceived backlash that may come about. He also said Miami’s slim chance is hanging upon SMU upsetting Clemson. He said from all sources that Clemson winning will knock out both Miami & Bama b/c the committee might feel compelled in putting SMU in as an at large.
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Maybe the playoff committee is going to be feel compelled to take two ACC teams. This is year 1 on the committee’s existence, it might not want to start off by making it totally obvious to casual cfb fans that it’s designed by the B1G and SEC and even more fraudulent than the 4 team playoff selection because the purpose is to load up with mediocre SEC teams.

It might be possible that a blowout either way - by Clemson or SMU helps UM. SMU winning is obvious how that helps. But is it possible UM still gets in with a Clemson win? Thanks to the espn created perception that the SEC is akin to the nfl, GT taking UGA to the brink and UGA needing a bunch of favorable calls to win makes our GT loss seem a lot less bad. And Cuse might end up being a 10 win team depending on the bowl game. They are a good team, 4 pt loss on the road isn’t a debacle (it was a debacle , but I’m just musing here).

Let’s say Clemson beats SMU 50-17.
one could make an argument that looking at all 2 loss teams in the ACC, UMs loss to GT and Syracuse (by a total of 9 pts) is more playoff worthy than SMUs 18-15 loss to BYU and SMU getting blown out by Clemson in the ACC championship game. If that’s the case, We would certainly be a better draw than SMU. Obviously best case scenario is SMU leaves no doubt. But if looks like it is going the other way, I think we have to root for a Clemson blowout. A close Clemson win could mean both SMU and Clemson get in, and we are definitely out.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Has nothing to do with Cam and Miami being a ratings draw, they are just bonuses. If Miami gets in, it’s bc Miami is a P4 team with 2 losses vs 3 P4 teams with 3 losses. It’s that simple. It’s that easily justified. They also avoid having to explain why one 3 loss team got in over the other two.
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If it was that simple, FSU would have been in the playoffs with no losses last year.
 
Rellyrell said:
This is what I’ve heard:

1. Ole Miss is really not that much of a factor. The loss to UK at home cannot be undervalued.
2. Bama & Miami r the two battling for the last at large spot.

Case for Miami:
-10 win season
-Prolific offense that can play with anyone
-Both losses were on the road to teams that exceeded pre season expectations

Case against Miami
-Haven’t played a top 25 team all season
-Vegas Odds, Miami not covering in several games vs. P4 opponents:
•17.5 against VA Tech (won by 4)
•10.5 against Cal (won by 1)
•11.5 against GT (loss by 5)
•10.5 against Cuse (loss by 4)
-S.O.S:
•FPI (11th)
•SOS (55th)
•AVGWP - Avg. Win Probability % (21st)
•GC - Game Control meaning the ability to control the outcome of match up from start to finish (19th)

Case for Bama:
-Wins vs. 3 Top 25 opponents including a Top 12 CFP team
-Vegas Odds:
•16.5 against vs. Wisconsin (won by 32)
•1.5 underdogs against UGA (won by 7)
•16.5 against Mizzou (won by 34)
•2.5 against LSU (won by 29)
-SOS:
•FPI (4th)
•SOS (17th)
•AVGWP (11th)
•GC (5th)

Case Against Bama
•2 horrible losses against two 6-6 teams
•Milroe’s inconsistencies
•3 losses on their resume

What it’s going to boil down to is the eye test; on one hand, the perception of Bama is they tend to get complacent against inferior competition, while rising against superior competition. Since VA Tech, Miami’s perception is we’ve struggled against inferior competition all season, needing miraculous & auspicious circumstances to achieve 10 wins.

The committee will be looking at nerd stats + complete body of work. My guy said if he had to put in a gut feeling, it would be Miami edging out Bama on the initial roll out of 12 b/c of perceived backlash that may come about. He also said Miami’s slim chance is hanging upon SMU upsetting Clemson. He said from all sources that Clemson winning will knock out both Miami & Bama b/c the committee might feel compelled in putting SMU in as an at large.
Click to expand...
I think miami gets in if SMU wins this weekend. I dont think they want to set a precedent of a 3 loss team making it in. fwiw, if UGA loses this weekend, it will be super interesting to see what they do there.
 
hoops156 said:
I think miami gets in if SMU wins this weekend. I dont think they want to set a precedent of a 3 loss team making it in. fwiw, if UGA loses this weekend, it will be super interesting to see what they do there.
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They are not going to punish the SECCG loser by knocking them out of the playoffs.
 
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The ESPN talking heads have been making the case for Miami to go in, but don't kid yourselves: if Clemson boat races SMU in the championship, we're done. SMU might get in as an At-Large. We won't.

We're off to the Ron Jeremy Bowl.
 
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Rellyrell said:
This is what I’ve heard:

1. Ole Miss is really not that much of a factor. The loss to UK at home cannot be undervalued.
2. Bama & Miami r the two battling for the last at large spot.

Case for Miami:
-10 win season
-Prolific offense that can play with anyone
-Both losses were on the road to teams that exceeded pre season expectations

Case against Miami
-Haven’t played a top 25 team all season
-Vegas Odds, Miami not covering in several games vs. P4 opponents:
•17.5 against VA Tech (won by 4)
•10.5 against Cal (won by 1)
•11.5 against GT (loss by 5)
•10.5 against Cuse (loss by 4)
-S.O.S:
•FPI (11th)
•SOS (55th)
•AVGWP - Avg. Win Probability % (21st)
•GC - Game Control meaning the ability to control the outcome of match up from start to finish (19th)

Case for Bama:
-Wins vs. 3 Top 25 opponents including a Top 12 CFP team
-Vegas Odds:
•16.5 against vs. Wisconsin (won by 32)
•1.5 underdogs against UGA (won by 7)
•16.5 against Mizzou (won by 34)
•2.5 against LSU (won by 29)
-SOS:
•FPI (4th)
•SOS (17th)
•AVGWP (11th)
•GC (5th)

Case Against Bama
•2 horrible losses against two 6-6 teams
•Milroe’s inconsistencies
•3 losses on their resume

What it’s going to boil down to is the eye test; on one hand, the perception of Bama is they tend to get complacent against inferior competition, while rising against superior competition. Since VA Tech, Miami’s perception is we’ve struggled against inferior competition all season, needing miraculous & auspicious circumstances to achieve 10 wins.

The committee will be looking at nerd stats + complete body of work. My guy said if he had to put in a gut feeling, it would be Miami edging out Bama on the initial roll out of 12 b/c of perceived backlash that may come about. He also said Miami’s slim chance is hanging upon SMU upsetting Clemson. He said from all sources that Clemson winning will knock out both Miami & Bama b/c the committee might feel compelled in putting SMU in as an at large.
Click to expand...
SMU is in with a loss, unless its of the '14 OSU variety where they beat Wisky 59 -zip.
We've heard that they won't penalize teams for CCG losses.
 
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Rellyrell said:
This is what I’ve heard:

1. Ole Miss is really not that much of a factor. The loss to UK at home cannot be undervalued.
2. Bama & Miami r the two battling for the last at large spot.

Case for Miami:
-10 win season
-Prolific offense that can play with anyone
-Both losses were on the road to teams that exceeded pre season expectations

Case against Miami
-Haven’t played a top 25 team all season
-Vegas Odds, Miami not covering in several games vs. P4 opponents:
•17.5 against VA Tech (won by 4)
•10.5 against Cal (won by 1)
•11.5 against GT (loss by 5)
•10.5 against Cuse (loss by 4)
-S.O.S:
•FPI (11th)
•SOS (55th)
•AVGWP - Avg. Win Probability % (21st)
•GC - Game Control meaning the ability to control the outcome of match up from start to finish (19th)

Case for Bama:
-Wins vs. 3 Top 25 opponents including a Top 12 CFP team
-Vegas Odds:
•16.5 against vs. Wisconsin (won by 32)
•1.5 underdogs against UGA (won by 7)
•16.5 against Mizzou (won by 34)
•2.5 against LSU (won by 29)
-SOS:
•FPI (4th)
•SOS (17th)
•AVGWP (11th)
•GC (5th)

Case Against Bama
•2 horrible losses against two 6-6 teams
•Milroe’s inconsistencies
•3 losses on their resume

What it’s going to boil down to is the eye test; on one hand, the perception of Bama is they tend to get complacent against inferior competition, while rising against superior competition. Since VA Tech, Miami’s perception is we’ve struggled against inferior competition all season, needing miraculous & auspicious circumstances to achieve 10 wins.

The committee will be looking at nerd stats + complete body of work. My guy said if he had to put in a gut feeling, it would be Miami edging out Bama on the initial roll out of 12 b/c of perceived backlash that may come about. He also said Miami’s slim chance is hanging upon SMU upsetting Clemson. He said from all sources that Clemson winning will knock out both Miami & Bama b/c the committee might feel compelled in putting SMU in as an at large.
Click to expand...
SMU deserves it if they lose to Clemson bc they'd be in had they not played in the ACCCG. you cant penalize a team for playing an extra game bc they earned a spot for the conference title. if you do that, then get rid of conference title games altogether and just award the best record.
 
Rellyrell said:
This is what I’ve heard:

1. Ole Miss is really not that much of a factor. The loss to UK at home cannot be undervalued.
2. Bama & Miami r the two battling for the last at large spot.

Case for Miami:
-10 win season
-Prolific offense that can play with anyone
-Both losses were on the road to teams that exceeded pre season expectations

Case against Miami
-Haven’t played a top 25 team all season
-Vegas Odds, Miami not covering in several games vs. P4 opponents:
•17.5 against VA Tech (won by 4)
•10.5 against Cal (won by 1)
•11.5 against GT (loss by 5)
•10.5 against Cuse (loss by 4)
-S.O.S:
•FPI (11th)
•SOS (55th)
•AVGWP - Avg. Win Probability % (21st)
•GC - Game Control meaning the ability to control the outcome of match up from start to finish (19th)

Case for Bama:
-Wins vs. 3 Top 25 opponents including a Top 12 CFP team
-Vegas Odds:
•16.5 against vs. Wisconsin (won by 32)
•1.5 underdogs against UGA (won by 7)
•16.5 against Mizzou (won by 34)
•2.5 against LSU (won by 29)
-SOS:
•FPI (4th)
•SOS (17th)
•AVGWP (11th)
•GC (5th)

Case Against Bama
•2 horrible losses against two 6-6 teams
•Milroe’s inconsistencies
•3 losses on their resume

What it’s going to boil down to is the eye test; on one hand, the perception of Bama is they tend to get complacent against inferior competition, while rising against superior competition. Since VA Tech, Miami’s perception is we’ve struggled against inferior competition all season, needing miraculous & auspicious circumstances to achieve 10 wins.

The committee will be looking at nerd stats + complete body of work. My guy said if he had to put in a gut feeling, it would be Miami edging out Bama on the initial roll out of 12 b/c of perceived backlash that may come about. He also said Miami’s slim chance is hanging upon SMU upsetting Clemson. He said from all sources that Clemson winning will knock out both Miami & Bama b/c the committee might feel compelled in putting SMU in as an at large.
Click to expand...
I agree Ole Miss is not in the conversation and don’t think USCe is either.

Ole Miss’ SOS is worse than UMs, they have more losses, and fewer top 50 wins.

Tennessee is seemingly a lock, but has a much worse SOS and fewer top 50 wins than UM. Hmmm.

Alabama has a good SOS and as many top 50 wins as UM but two bad losses (outside of top 40).

Miami has a weaker SOS than Bama but 1 fewer loss, as many top 40 wins, and it’s only losses are top 40 losses.

Colley Matrix has Alabama 5/1000 of a point higher than Miami with Bama at 11. It has Tennessee, USCe, and Ole Miss behind UM with Ole Miss at 24. Interestingly, it has Syracuse at 16 and Louisville at 23.

Wolfe has Miami at 11 and ahead of all the bubble SEC teams and Tennessee. He also has Syracuse and Louisville at 19 and 22. The other 2 major computer rankings systems favor the SEC teams over Miami.

Tough call for the committee.
 
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