yeah I mean I don't think that's true. A&M is a prime example, they pulled back HEAVY after they spent all that $ and people portaled out a year later.
now NIL deals can be split up and structured in a way that incentivizes people to stay for sure, and I'm not saying NIL is going away by any means but just throwing a ton of money at a bunch of players hoping to build an elite class is not the way as there's no legitimate reason to suspect those players will stay with the program, especially when the money can be prioritized to retain current stars and/or get proven stars through the portal - both of which are way more certain things than a high school athlete