The reality is, if you go the Big 12 route the cake is baked. We could mitigate some of the negative consequences, but the big ones would still be present regardless.
We wouldn’t be able to mitigate the recruiting fallout. It’s be the biggest cudgel anyone can use against us, and it’d work. Doesn’t matter if we up the NIL budget even more. There will be clear separation between The P2 and the Big 12. No top talent is going to want to play in CFB’s G League. Our top talent would bolt for the portal almost immediately. And portal recruiting for our benefit? Forget about it.
There’s no way to make the Big 12 work for us, only ways to make it slightly less painful. Any move to the Big 12 would be catastrophic for the program. It does not matter if we become the “highest paid” or “flagship” program in the Big 12. Being king of the kiddy tables doesn’t matter. We’d still have a massive revenue gap with the P2, and we’d be the flagship of the G League. Perception matters, and the perception would be that we’re a has been that’s not good enough for the P2.
The best case scenario for us in such a bad situation would be (1) highest paid team in that conference by a big margin; (2) no exit fee; and (3) early termination right. Even then, we’d still be in a terrible situation, since we’d never catch up with the P2 in recruiting. We’d be lucky to maintain Top 20 classes with a big NIL budget. Sure, maybe in that scenario we’d ball out and impress the P2 for full membership in 2030. By that point though, we’d be years behind in recruiting and would’ve lost more than half a decade.
Point is, the Big 12 can’t be an option unless the BIG or SEC refuses to take us even for a partial share that is for pennies on the dollar. Any scenario where we end up in the Big 12 is catastrophic. There would be varying degrees to how catastrophic it would be, but it’d still be catastrophic.
If UM admin makes the short term decision to go the second tier conference for slightly more money than the first tier conference at a partial share, it’d be borderline criminal. Getting into the P2 is the #1 priority for this program’s survival and success. It’s so important that BOTs, donors, etc. should threaten severe consequences towards admin if they spurn even a low partial share offer to the P2 in exchange for the Big 12. ****, Mario himself should threaten to resign if that occurred. That’s how important and high stakes this decision is.
Luckily, I will say that I believe there are far more people in UM admin who’d recognize the need to get to the P2 than those who want to play the long game and get more money now in the Big 12. Either way, whatever happens will determine whether this program is relevant in ten years or not.