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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

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Rickd said:
Sure seems like FSU is headed to the Big 10 and I hope Clemson ends up in the SEC ... that might leave a spot for Miami in the B10 at partial share just to get in, in this next move.
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I would be willing to make a large wager that Flo is better dialed in than most on this board and he already said his belief is the decision is "purely about money, not making the fans happy or perception." Read between the lines. I think it’s highly improbable that UM will take partial shares to join the P2, and if the Big 12 puts the most money on the table, we are going to the Big 12. He also said that the UM brass is expecting CFB to merge into a mega conference by 2030 so views whatever move it makes as short term. Is it dumb? Probably. Does it square with what we have seen of the UM administration? 100%.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
I would be willing to make a large wager that Flo is better dialed in than most on this board and he already said his belief is the decision is "purely about money, not making the fans happy or perception." Read between the lines. I think it’s highly improbable that UM will take partial shares to join the P2, and if the Big 12 puts the most money on the table, we are going to the Big 12. He also said that the UM brass is expecting CFB to merge into a mega conference by 2030 so views whatever move it makes as short term. Is it dumb? Probably. Does it square with what we have seen of the UM administration? 100%.
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That is what I think is going to happen. We are heading for NFL Lite in the next few years. There will a shuffling of the deck and limits put in place (and enforced) as far as NIL and such. (that also mean those quiet bags will be back)
 
Cajuncane said:
We’ve sucked for 20 years+

Do I think we deserve to get in ? Yep but I’m kind of biased as you are but……

Just because we looked like a Miss Universe 20-30 years ago doesn’t mean we will get asked to the dance now that we’ve grown old and fat…..we need to show we’re losing weight and becoming attractive again.
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You made me think about that dancing blonde boosters wife strutting her stuff and blowing smoke off of her finger!

We need one of those.

 
Handsome Squidbum said:
I would be willing to make a large wager that Flo is better dialed in than most on this board and he already said his belief is the decision is "purely about money, not making the fans happy or perception." Read between the lines. I think it’s highly improbable that UM will take partial shares to join the P2, and if the Big 12 puts the most money on the table, we are going to the Big 12. He also said that the UM brass is expecting CFB to merge into a mega conference by 2030 so views whatever move it makes as short term. Is it dumb? Probably. Does it square with what we have seen of the UM administration? 100%.
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That is the concern ... it is going to be a major recruiting disadvantage being in the B12 going against the P2 as during that period they will DOMINATE prime time OTA TV broadcasts. Winning games is about fielding the strongest roster of the most talented players. Even NOW the SEC dominates as the prime destination for 4-5 star athletes, with the B10 second and the ACC 3rd (due to FSU, Clemson and Miami). The B12 is a distant 4th, and will probably become #3 after FSU / Clemson leave, possibly along with others.

I have read some crazy comments regarding B12 interest IN Miami. Some speculating that Miami would be paid above the regular B12 teams, might even pay the ACC exit fee (that was pure speculation I believe). But if they DO go that route ... they have to be sure there is an out if / when the P2 calls. FSU fans are already giddy with the expectation "When Miami goes to the B12 ... the kiddy table ... we will be able to move in and lock up recruiting for all of those elite SFL recruits ... Miami will die on the vine".
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
I would be willing to make a large wager that Flo is better dialed in than most on this board and he already said his belief is the decision is "purely about money, not making the fans happy or perception." Read between the lines. I think it’s highly improbable that UM will take partial shares to join the P2, and if the Big 12 puts the most money on the table, we are going to the Big 12. He also said that the UM brass is expecting CFB to merge into a mega conference by 2030 so views whatever move it makes as short term. Is it dumb? Probably. Does it square with what we have seen of the UM administration? 100%.
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(1) On the issue of realignment nobody’s really dialed in. I’d bet flo knows just as much as those on this board, on this topic.

(2) Going to the Big 12 won’t happen, unless the ACC goes the PAC-12 route and we don’t have a P2 offer. Going to the Big 12 in any other scenario is program suicide. Won’t matter if there’s a reshuffling 6 years later. We’d be too behind to catch up.

(3) If administration is really willing to pass on P2 membership even at a partial share, with the hope of a super league and access six years down the road, it would be one of the most monumentally stupid decisions in sports management history.
 
FL Cane said:
(1) On the issue of realignment nobody’s really dialed in. I’d bet flo knows just as much as those on this board, on this topic.

(2) Going to the Big 12 won’t happen, unless the ACC goes the PAC-12 route and we don’t have a P2 offer. Going to the Big 12 in any other scenario is program suicide. Won’t matter if there’s a reshuffling 6 years later. We’d be too behind to catch up.

(3) If administration is really willing to pass on P2 membership even at a partial share, with the hope of a super league and access six years down the road, it would be one of the most monumentally stupid decisions in sports management history.
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Yeah, sure.

But… the single most important thing in all of conference realignment is for @Handsome Squidbum to be able to claim victory - so #3 has to happen.
 
Rickd said:
That is the concern ... it is going to be a major recruiting disadvantage being in the B12 going against the P2 as during that period they will DOMINATE prime time OTA TV broadcasts. Winning games is about fielding the strongest roster of the most talented players. Even NOW the SEC dominates as the prime destination for 4-5 star athletes, with the B10 second and the ACC 3rd (due to FSU, Clemson and Miami). The B12 is a distant 4th, and will probably become #3 after FSU / Clemson leave, possibly along with others.

I have read some crazy comments regarding B12 interest IN Miami. Some speculating that Miami would be paid above the regular B12 teams, might even pay the ACC exit fee (that was pure speculation I believe). But if they DO go that route ... they have to be sure there is an out if / when the P2 calls. FSU fans are already giddy with the expectation "When Miami goes to the B12 ... the kiddy table ... we will be able to move in and lock up recruiting for all of those elite SFL recruits ... Miami will die on the vine".
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The reality is, if you go the Big 12 route the cake is baked. We could mitigate some of the negative consequences, but the big ones would still be present regardless.

We wouldn’t be able to mitigate the recruiting fallout. It’s be the biggest cudgel anyone can use against us, and it’d work. Doesn’t matter if we up the NIL budget even more. There will be clear separation between The P2 and the Big 12. No top talent is going to want to play in CFB’s G League. Our top talent would bolt for the portal almost immediately. And portal recruiting for our benefit? Forget about it.

There’s no way to make the Big 12 work for us, only ways to make it slightly less painful. Any move to the Big 12 would be catastrophic for the program. It does not matter if we become the “highest paid” or “flagship” program in the Big 12. Being king of the kiddy tables doesn’t matter. We’d still have a massive revenue gap with the P2, and we’d be the flagship of the G League. Perception matters, and the perception would be that we’re a has been that’s not good enough for the P2.

The best case scenario for us in such a bad situation would be (1) highest paid team in that conference by a big margin; (2) no exit fee; and (3) early termination right. Even then, we’d still be in a terrible situation, since we’d never catch up with the P2 in recruiting. We’d be lucky to maintain Top 20 classes with a big NIL budget. Sure, maybe in that scenario we’d ball out and impress the P2 for full membership in 2030. By that point though, we’d be years behind in recruiting and would’ve lost more than half a decade.

Point is, the Big 12 can’t be an option unless the BIG or SEC refuses to take us even for a partial share that is for pennies on the dollar. Any scenario where we end up in the Big 12 is catastrophic. There would be varying degrees to how catastrophic it would be, but it’d still be catastrophic.

If UM admin makes the short term decision to go the second tier conference for slightly more money than the first tier conference at a partial share, it’d be borderline criminal. Getting into the P2 is the #1 priority for this program’s survival and success. It’s so important that BOTs, donors, etc. should threaten severe consequences towards admin if they spurn even a low partial share offer to the P2 in exchange for the Big 12. ****, Mario himself should threaten to resign if that occurred. That’s how important and high stakes this decision is.

Luckily, I will say that I believe there are far more people in UM admin who’d recognize the need to get to the P2 than those who want to play the long game and get more money now in the Big 12. Either way, whatever happens will determine whether this program is relevant in ten years or not.
 
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Ajcane8 said:
The single most important thing in all of conference realignment is for @Handsome Squidbum to be able to claim victory - so #3 has to happen.
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question asks GIF
 
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FL Cane said:
The reality is, if you go the Big 12 route the cake is baked. We could mitigate some of the negative consequences, but the big ones would still be present regardless.

We wouldn’t be able to mitigate the recruiting fallout. It’s be the biggest cudgel anyone can use against us, and it’d work. Doesn’t matter if we up the NIL budget even more. There will be clear separation between The P2 and the Big 12. No top talent is going to want to play in CFB’s G League. Our top talent would bolt for the portal almost immediately. And portal recruiting for our benefit? Forget about it.

There’s no way to make the Big 12 work for us, only ways to make it slightly less painful. Any move to the Big 12 would be catastrophic for the program. It does not matter if we become the “highest paid” or “flagship” program in the Big 12. Being king of the kiddy tables doesn’t matter. We’d still have a massive revenue gap with the P2, and we’d be the flagship of the G League. Perception matters, and the perception would be that we’re a has been that’s not good enough for the P2.

The best case scenario for us in such a bad situation would be (1) highest paid team in that conference by a big margin; (2) no exit fee; and (3) early termination right. Even then, we’d still be in a terrible situation, since we’d never catch up with the P2 in recruiting. We’d be lucky to maintain Top 20 classes with a big NIL budget. Sure, maybe in that scenario we’d ball out and impress the P2 for full membership in 2030. By that point though, we’d be years behind in recruiting and would’ve lost more than half a decade.

Point is, the Big 12 can’t be an option unless the BIG or SEC refuses to take us even for a partial share that is for pennies on the dollar. Any scenario where we end up in the Big 12 is catastrophic. There would be varying degrees to how catastrophic it would be, but it’d still be catastrophic.
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What if Yormark put together a Legion of Hip Hop Heros to back the Big 12?

Would JayZ and company change the recruiting landscape?
 
FL Cane said:
The reality is, if you go the Big 12 route the cake is baked. We could mitigate some of the negative consequences, but the big ones would still be present regardless.

We wouldn’t be able to mitigate the recruiting fallout. It’s be the biggest cudgel anyone can use against us, and it’d work. Doesn’t matter if we up the NIL budget even more. There will be clear separation between The P2 and the Big 12. No top talent is going to want to play in CFB’s G League. Our top talent would bolt for the portal almost immediately. And portal recruiting for our benefit? Forget about it.

There’s no way to make the Big 12 work for us, only ways to make it slightly less painful. Any move to the Big 12 would be catastrophic for the program. It does not matter if we become the “highest paid” or “flagship” program in the Big 12. Being king of the kiddy tables doesn’t matter. We’d still have a massive revenue gap with the P2, and we’d be the flagship of the G League. Perception matters, and the perception would be that we’re a has been that’s not good enough for the P2.

The best case scenario for us in such a bad situation would be (1) highest paid team in that conference by a big margin; (2) no exit fee; and (3) early termination right. Even then, we’d still be in a terrible situation, since we’d never catch up with the P2 in recruiting. We’d be lucky to maintain Top 20 classes with a big NIL budget. Sure, maybe in that scenario we’d ball out and impress the P2 for full membership in 2030. By that point though, we’d be years behind in recruiting and would’ve lost more than half a decade.

Point is, the Big 12 can’t be an option unless the BIG or SEC refuses to take us even for a partial share that is for pennies on the dollar. Any scenario where we end up in the Big 12 is catastrophic. There would be varying degrees to how catastrophic it would be, but it’d still be catastrophic.

If UM admin makes the short term decision to go the second tier conference for slightly more money than the first tier conference at a partial share, it’d be borderline criminal. Getting into the P2 is the #1 priority for this program’s survival and success. It’s so important that BOTs, donors, etc. should threaten severe consequences towards admin if they spurn even a low partial share offer to the P2 in exchange for the Big 12. ****, Mario himself should threaten to resign if that occurred. That’s how important and high stakes this decision is.

Luckily, I will say that I believe there are far more people in UM admin who’d recognize the need to get to the P2 than those who want to play the long game and get more money now in the Big 12. Either way, whatever happens will determine whether this program is relevant in ten years or not.
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Sure hope you're right because relegation to the kiddy table = death of the UM football program rather than resurgence. Even getting a half share in the B12 or less, you're IN the game and booster $$ can make up the financial deficit for a 5 year period, but, you're IN and able to grow the program.
 
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Rickd said:
Sure hope you're right because relegation to the kiddy table = death of the UM football program rather than resurgence. Even getting a half share in the B12 or less, you're IN the game and booster $$ can make up the financial deficit for a 5 year period, but, you're IN and able to grow the program.
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This fact would be even worse if our bitter rival moves to the P2 while we are relegated to a Mickey Mouse leftover conference.

The recruiting aspect is almost as problematic as the financial shortfall. Yes, Mario is an elite recruiter but big time recruits are all about exposure and building their brand. Good luck doing that playing outside the P2.
 
Robbymoto said:
This fact would be even worse if our bitter rival moves to the P2 while we are relegated to a Mickey Mouse leftover conference.

The recruiting aspect is almost as problematic as the financial shortfall. Yes, Mario is an elite recruiter but big time recruits are all about exposure and building their brand. Good luck doing that playing outside the P2.
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You mean big recruits wouldn't want to be playing on ESPN+ streaming app?
 
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Rickd said:
You mean big recruits wouldn't want to be playing on ESPN+ streaming app?
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Its honestly better to let the first domino fall at this point than to try and play out all the scenarios. Fact is realignment is fluid. Yes FSU and Clemson are getting out contrary to what many said was (and some still think) impossible. Yes they have been linked to both P2 conferences at one point or another for a myriad of reasons. Yes this thing probably comes to a head before august due to various bylaw and contractual rules regarding when play in a new home can start. What isn't determined is domino 2. Depending on if domino 1 hits the Left or right next domino in line will have ripple effects for the next sequence of events. Arguing about what happens post FSU leaving is pointless because theres about 30 factors i could list right now which would have a different school being #2 in whatever conference they choose depending on the conditions. And depending on which #2 it is could determine whether its a 2 piece false start or a 16 piece chain reaction. Everyone should just enjoy their summer and keep an ear out. Because, fortunately or unfortunately, once the first domino does fall the rest of the pieces will fall in short order.

Nothing wrong with discussing, thats why most of us are here. But claiming one is right or wrong before the event in question even has its first act is mind-numbing. Also the people claiming boards don't have people with knowledge while on a board themselves that has people with knowledge is an interesting case study in mental gymnastics. *End rant*
 
Has anyone considered the creation of a new power conference for the next 6 years? ND, UNC, Miami, Utah, BYU, and the like, sign a new deal with NBC so it stays relevant in the college football game? They would schedule the P2 as out of group games. Almost a play in tournament. I don’t like it but our options may be limited. I prefer to take less with a power 2 and use Mario’ recruiting skill and boosters nil to bridge the gap.
 
FL Cane said:
The reality is, if you go the Big 12 route the cake is baked. We could mitigate some of the negative consequences, but the big ones would still be present regardless.

We wouldn’t be able to mitigate the recruiting fallout. It’s be the biggest cudgel anyone can use against us, and it’d work. Doesn’t matter if we up the NIL budget even more. There will be clear separation between The P2 and the Big 12. No top talent is going to want to play in CFB’s G League. Our top talent would bolt for the portal almost immediately. And portal recruiting for our benefit? Forget about it.

There’s no way to make the Big 12 work for us, only ways to make it slightly less painful. Any move to the Big 12 would be catastrophic for the program. It does not matter if we become the “highest paid” or “flagship” program in the Big 12. Being king of the kiddy tables doesn’t matter. We’d still have a massive revenue gap with the P2, and we’d be the flagship of the G League. Perception matters, and the perception would be that we’re a has been that’s not good enough for the P2.

The best case scenario for us in such a bad situation would be (1) highest paid team in that conference by a big margin; (2) no exit fee; and (3) early termination right. Even then, we’d still be in a terrible situation, since we’d never catch up with the P2 in recruiting. We’d be lucky to maintain Top 20 classes with a big NIL budget. Sure, maybe in that scenario we’d ball out and impress the P2 for full membership in 2030. By that point though, we’d be years behind in recruiting and would’ve lost more than half a decade.

Point is, the Big 12 can’t be an option unless the BIG or SEC refuses to take us even for a partial share that is for pennies on the dollar. Any scenario where we end up in the Big 12 is catastrophic. There would be varying degrees to how catastrophic it would be, but it’d still be catastrophic.

If UM admin makes the short term decision to go the second tier conference for slightly more money than the first tier conference at a partial share, it’d be borderline criminal. Getting into the P2 is the #1 priority for this program’s survival and success. It’s so important that BOTs, donors, etc. should threaten severe consequences towards admin if they spurn even a low partial share offer to the P2 in exchange for the Big 12. ****, Mario himself should threaten to resign if that occurred. That’s how important and high stakes this decision is.

Luckily, I will say that I believe there are far more people in UM admin who’d recognize the need to get to the P2 than those who want to play the long game and get more money now in the Big 12. Either way, whatever happens will determine whether this program is relevant in ten years or not.
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All great points.
Do we have SMU-level boosters that can make up the difference for the first 5-7 years?
 
TpaBayFlyFisher said:
Has anyone considered the creation of a new power conference for the next 6 years? ND, UNC, Miami, Utah, BYU, and the like, sign a new deal with NBC so it stays relevant in the college football game? They would schedule the P2 as out of group games. Almost a play in tournament. I don’t like it but our options may be limited. I prefer to take less with a power 2 and use Mario’ recruiting skill and boosters nil to bridge the gap.
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I honestly don’t see a premier level league of 40 teams anytime soon.
What I do see is the Big 2, a 2nd level conference (think Big 12/ACC combined) and the G5.
With the current playoff allocations, the Big 2 can take their sweet time deciding if they want to really do a premier league.

So to answer your question, yes there will be a new conference, but it won’t a power conference (one that is equal to Big 2) and will likely be a combination of Big 12 and ACC leftovers.
 
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