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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

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Cryptical Envelopment said:
Ok. And how does Clemson intend to break the GOR? On what grounds? Do they prefer the SEC or the B1G? Do they have a strategy to play them off each other somehow? What conversations has Clemson had with each conference? What conversations has Clemson had with other potential departing ACC teams? Rad knows the answer to all of this and is inside when it comes to Clemson, that's an incredible advantage vs. having to just believe what another AD tells you.
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Can’t deny that having Rad is an advantage here. IMHO Clemson is the top dog in the ACC and they have had plans on going to the SEC for some time now. I feel that they have been a part of the SEC’s expansion plans for as long as Okie and Tejas have been. Also you 100% right in suggesting that other ADs are out there lying about their respective schools intentions as everyone is battling for inside position here so they don’t get left out.
 
NorthernVirginiaCane said:
Notre Dame fits in culturally with the ACC.

ACC should dump Wake Forest and possibly also BC. Losing Wake wouldn't change the total revenue, losing BC doubt hurts too much. Is the ACCN even making money in Massachusetts?

Redistribute that $70mm among FSU, Clemson, UNC and Miami, then

add ND, Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford.

Conference saved.
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I think a play on something like this is the only chance the acc has. I personally think the acc is dead but if I was in acc leadership here's how I'd try to save it.

1. Dump BC, Duke, Syracuse, and Wake Forest - doubt there's a legal precedence for this but if there's a way I'd push for it
2. If possible make Duke a proxy team for Basketball - Duke is probably not going to want to go for this but if you can sweeten the pot so that they make some $ (say 40-50%) while not getting a full share of revenue it could be beneficial to both. If no go then move on from Duke
3. Add ND, Washington, Oregon, and one of the California schools (i'd prefer Stanford) - ND's gonna be a hard pull since they've been hesitant to lose their independence. If you can't get them in the boat then add both schools

The drawback to something like this is that the ACC would still be behind the SEC/BIG in revenue but you may be close enough that the push to dissolve fades. This plan is likely unattainable but it annoys me that the acc has been asleep at the wheel and relying on the GOR instead of strengthening the conference. If by some miracle the conference is able to hold it needs to do the following:

a. Prioritize football over basketball - football $ dwarfs basketball, the acc needs to realize this and start trying to improve/maximize its football content
b. Miami/FSU need to wake up from their slumber. Clemson has done a solid job carrying the flag the last 10ish years but the reality is that Miami and FSU consistently fielding top 10 teams is what will get the tv deals needed.
 
The highest rated shows on television are live sports with the NFL capturing 8 of the top 10 events broadcasted in the U.S. Football remains king. As a result, networks are paying record sums for broadcasting rights and conferences are leveraging their product to maximize revenue.

Selling subscription rights on newly created affiliate networks is the latest trend (e.g., Peacock for Premier League games). Soon CFB conferences will enter into deals to televise some of their games (not the premier matchups) on a subscription-only basis. This yields more revenue for conference members as they know there is an audience for SEC fanboys who want to watch Vandy vs. Miss State. Yet, it preserves ‘Bama vs. Auburn on the national broadcast for the rest of the nation. All of these changes are occurring while ACC members fall further and further behind as each day passes.

We need to either redistribute the wealth in the ACC or leave the conference. We know that is easier said than done due to contractual limitations. However, that’s not my biggest concern. I am not certain the University of Miami as a stand-alone asset is as attractive as before. We have lost some leverage due to brand erosion. We need, therefore, to form an alliance with others and leverage the collective strength of that alliance to improve our revenue and preserve our competitive standing vis-a-vis other conferences. If we don’t, we will become another Wake Forest or Boston College.

Time is of the essence.
 
Canesrule230 said:
I think a play on something like this is the only chance the acc has. I personally think the acc is dead but if I was in acc leadership here's how I'd try to save it.

1. Dump BC, Duke, Syracuse, and Wake Forest - doubt there's a legal precedence for this but if there's a way I'd push for it
2. If possible make Duke a proxy team for Basketball - Duke is probably not going to want to go for this but if you can sweeten the pot so that they make some $ (say 40-50%) while not getting a full share of revenue it could be beneficial to both. If no go then move on from Duke
3. Add ND, Washington, Oregon, and one of the California schools (i'd prefer Stanford) - ND's gonna be a hard pull since they've been hesitant to lose their independence. If you can't get them in the boat then add both schools

The drawback to something like this is that the ACC would still be behind the SEC/BIG in revenue but you may be close enough that the push to dissolve fades. This plan is likely unattainable but it annoys me that the acc has been asleep at the wheel and relying on the GOR instead of strengthening the conference. If by some miracle the conference is able to hold it needs to do the following:

a. Prioritize football over basketball - football $ dwarfs basketball, the acc needs to realize this and start trying to improve/maximize its football content
b. Miami/FSU need to wake up from their slumber. Clemson has done a solid job carrying the flag the last 10ish years but the reality is that Miami and FSU consistently fielding top 10 teams is what will get the tv deals needed.
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Basketball makes a lot of money too. You don't dump one of the top 4 brands in that big revenue sport.
 
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Gables Cane said:
The highest rated shows on television are live sports with the NFL capturing 8 of the top 10 events broadcasted in the U.S. Football remains king. As a result, networks are paying record sums for broadcasting rights and conferences are leveraging their product to maximize revenue.

Selling subscription rights on newly created affiliate networks is the latest trend (e.g., Peacock for Premier League games). Soon CFB conferences will enter into deals to televise some of their games (not the premier matchups) on a subscription-only basis. This yields more revenue for conference members as they know there is an audience for SEC fanboys who want to watch Vandy vs. Miss State. Yet, it preserves ‘Bama vs. Auburn on the national broadcast for the rest of the nation. All of these changes are occurring while ACC members fall further and further behind as each day passes.

We need to either redistribute the wealth in the ACC or leave the conference. We know that is easier said than done due to contractual limitations. However, that’s not my biggest concern. I am not certain the University of Miami as a stand-alone asset is as attractive as before. We have lost some leverage due to brand erosion. We need, therefore, to form an alliance with others and leverage the collective strength of that alliance to improve our revenue and preserve our competitive standing vis-a-vis other conferences. If we don’t, we will become another Wake Forest or Boston College.

Time is of the essence.
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Fantastic post
 
NorthernVirginiaCane said:
Basketball makes a lot of money too. You don't dump one of the top 4 brands in that big revenue sport.
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Nowhere near what football does. It’s why you don’t hear Duke/Kansas in all of these rumors to the BIG/SEC and why the Big East died (and a huge part of the reason why the acc is in the spot it is now).

If the revenue football produces is 70/30 or 80/20 compared to basketball we need to
put basketball in the backburner.

Bottomline is that we need to add and keep teams that maintain or enlarge the pie.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
Gotcha. Well, let's say the SEC sits tight and the B1G decides to add UNC, UVA, Clemson, Miami and FSU. That is going to be a **** of a TV contract that will generate a ton of top content. Everyone will want it. If I am the SEC there is no way in **** I am letting that happen, letting my competition waltz into to my territory and TV markets and set up shop? Zero chance.

I think as long as there is non-dilutive value to adding programs (the TV pot will grow enough to sustain it or add incremental value for each school) we are going to see growth. There are a few top tier program out there waiting to be plucked still. These conferences want to dominate the schedule, own relevant CFB. It's SEC vs. B1G for all the marbles and the top TV contract.
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The top fish have been caught, but Josh Pate had an intelligent way to speak about it. The average SEC game right now in terms of viewership might be something like Florida Arkansas (two roughly mid tier teams). If you throw Miami in the the mix, does the average game get more viewers? You're not selling individual teams; you're selling matchups to the TV partners.
 
DamnLiesAndStatistics said:
The top fish have been caught, but Josh Pate had an intelligent way to speak about it. The average SEC game right now in terms of viewership might be something like Florida Arkansas (two roughly mid tier teams). If you throw Miami in the the mix, does the average game get more viewers? You're not selling individual teams; you're selling matchups to the TV partners.
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I really do think this is the key takeaway when looking at who the SEC/BIG adds in the future. Adding teams like Miami into either of those conferences gives them glossy matchups that generate eyeballs on tv's.
 
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DamnLiesAndStatistics said:
The top fish have been caught, but Josh Pate had an intelligent way to speak about it. The average SEC game right now in terms of viewership might be something like Florida Arkansas (two roughly mid tier teams). If you throw Miami in the the mix, does the average game get more viewers? You're not selling individual teams; you're selling matchups to the TV partners.
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The top fish in the Big 12 and Pac-12 have been caught because they were available. There are some VERY desirable teams still out there, the best of what's in the ACC and ND. ND is waiting, and the ACC teams aren't available yet. Yes, if you add some of the premier programs in the ACC and match them up with a great schedule you will have compelling content, and more of it to sell. As I've mentioned, you are also gobbling up market share. There is only going to be coke and Pepsi soon. The SEC and the B1G. They are both taking massive leaps forward while everyone else is either being relegated and destroyed. When you're the only game in town or the dominant player, you're even more valuable.
 
NorthernVirginiaCane said:
Basketball makes a lot of money too. You don't dump one of the top 4 brands in that big revenue sport.
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Basketball does not make a lot of money for the conference contracts. It’s all about football with basketball league games much smaller portion of the deal value.

now The ncaa tournament makes a lot of money. Two VERY different things and deals
 
Angry Ibis said:
Interesting. Miami and Clemson were said to be partnering for a year. At that time, word was also circulating that FSU and UNC were communicating…
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Good stuff. The magic question, which I've posed, is can you get eight teams to go along with it?

If UM, Clemson, UNC, FSU and UVA (all my opinion) land in the SEC/B1G, you need three more teams to basically get into the Big 12. If less than those five are desired by the super powers, it makes this even harder.

So assuming the 5 are wanted, we need to pre-negotiate for the SEC, B1G, and Big 12 to agree to take 8+ teams. Basically the majority of the Power-5 schools have to approve this. The Big 12 is currently at 12 members for 2024, the SEC is at 16, the B1G at 16. But you have to find room for the Pac-12 schools that are desirable, certainly Oregon and Washington who could end up either B1G or Big 12, and there are others the Big 12 will want I'm sure. They are going to eat spots.

Let's say the SEC/B1G expand to the rumored 20 team super-conferences by each adding four.

Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, Washington, Oregon... and Notre Dame.

The magic question is does the Big 12 value enough ACC schools (3+), while still having room for the Pac-12 schools they may want more (and can get)?

Best of Pac-12:

Arizona
Arizona State
Stanford
Cal
Colorado
Utah


Best ACC leftovers:

NCST
Louisville
Pitt
VT

Probably screwed unless the Big 12 wants Duke for hoop and GT for ATL:

GT
Duke

Syracuse. Wake and BC, really screwed.

And you have Oregon State and WSU still out there who will be campaigning for the ACC spots in the Big 12 as hard as they can too, but I think are screwed because of their tiny media markets.

If the ACC and Pac-12 implode, it might be hard to get the Big 12 to take the three ACC teams we need them to. That's why this isn't a layup. That might be the wall.

Wild times.
 
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in 2024 stuff is going to go nuts. I wouldn’t expect much more in the way of confirmed realignment before that.
Guessing the following happens-

B1G- currently at 14, adding usc and ucla to get to 16. Adds UO, UW, and two of UNC/UVA/ND, gets to 20, done.

SEC - currently at 14, adding Texas and Okla to get to 16. Adds FSU, Clem, Miami, and one of ND or GT/Louisville/Pitt/UVA/UNC, gets to 20, done.

Big 12 - currently at 10, losing Texas and Oklahoma, adding UCF, Cinci, BYU, Houston to get to 12. Allegedly has a tv contract that incentivizes adding p5 teams (not verified), so will add 8 more - Colorado/Utah/Arizona/Arizona State, and top remaining acc teams Vatech and NCst and two of Pitt/Louisville/GT/UVA

Pac continues to exist but is a shell of itself and a distant fourth best conference. Adds a bunch of west of the Mississippi mid majors - smu, sdsu, boise state, Utah state, San Jose state etc and/or acc leftovers if they are interested in being coast to coast.

Extinct
ACC is done. Duke, wake, Cuse, Boston college all take their rightful spots in the big east or some other private school league and only care about basketball. Or if they are interested, maybe the PAC expands and adds the scraps.
 
westcoastcanes said:
in 2024 stuff is going to go nuts. I wouldn’t expect much more in the way of confirmed realignment before that.
Guessing the following happens-

B1G- currently at 14, adding usc and ucla to get to 16. Adds UO, UW, and two of UNC/UVA/ND, gets to 20, done.

SEC - currently at 14, adding Texas and Okla to get to 16. Adds FSU, Clem, Miami, and one of ND or GT/Louisville/Pitt/UVA/UNC, gets to 20, done.

Big 12 - currently at 10, losing Texas and Oklahoma, adding UCF, Cinci, BYU, Houston to get to 12. Allegedly has a tv contract that incentivizes adding p5 teams (not verified), so will add 8 more - Colorado/Utah/Arizona/Arizona State, and top remaining acc teams Vatech and NCst and two of Pitt/Louisville/GT/UVA

Pac continues to exist but is a shell of itself and a distant fourth best conference. Adds a bunch of west of the Mississippi mid majors - smu, sdsu, boise state, Utah state, San Jose state etc and/or acc leftovers if they are interested in being coast to coast.

Extinct
ACC is done. Duke, wake, Cuse, Boston college all take their rightful spots in the big east or some other private school league and only care about basketball. Or if they are interested, maybe the PAC expands and adds the scraps.
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We're right about at the same place... the thing that I still see out there is where do CAL and Stanford rank within VT, NCST, PITT, L'VILLE, and UVA (who I value more than you and see in the B1G/SEC) and do they rank high enough to ***** the pooch?

Maybe enough ACC teams get bumped over CAL/STANFORD to get the deal done? Don't underestimate CAL/STANFORD. I'm not saying they are a shoo-in, but they are very rich, very powerful institutions with very rich, and very powerful alumni, in the 6th biggest media market in the US (bigger than Atlanta or Houston). I could see them committing to spending a certain amount going forward on athletics to help ensure their competitiveness. Or ****, maybe the Big 12 adds them all and goes to 22 if their media partners go along.
 
Ispyin said:
Basketball does not make a lot of money for the conference contracts. It’s all about football with basketball league games much smaller portion of the deal value.

now The ncaa tournament makes a lot of money. Two VERY different things and deals
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Basketball brings in almost $200mm/year to the ACC, provides a ton of content for the ACCN, and if you distributed that revenue based on performance, Duke would clean up. They aren't going anywhere.
 
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NorthernVirginiaCane said:
Basketball brings in almost $200mm/year to the ACC, provides a ton of content for the ACCN, and if you distributed that revenue based on performance, Duke would clean up. They aren't going anywhere.
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The entire acc brought in 397 million in the 2020-2021 tv contract wise . Basketball was absolutely not 200 million of that but you keep keeping on
F5C58B01-51A3-4018-9242-1F8B0E09A23D.jpeg
 
NorthernVirginiaCane said:
Gross revenue was almost $600mm last year. Normally the basketball percentage is considered 25%, but the growth of the ACCN is pushing it closer to 30%+.

You aren't informed.
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you’re right. I actually just work in the business itself. Thanks for clueing me in. Sorry I wasted all this time including roles at (checks LinkedIn) ESPN and Fox Sports. Thanks for steering me right.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
We're right about at the same place... the thing that I still see out there is where do CAL and Stanford rank within VT, NCST, PITT, L'VILLE, and UVA (who I value more than you and see in the B1G/SEC) and do they rank high enough to ***** the pooch?

Maybe enough ACC teams get bumped over CAL/STANFORD to get the deal done? Don't underestimate CAL/STANFORD. I'm not saying they are a shoo-in, but they are very rich, very powerful institutions with very rich, and very powerful alumni, in the 6th biggest media market in the US (bigger than Atlanta or Houston). I could see them committing to spending a certain amount going forward on athletics to help ensure their competitiveness. Or ****, maybe the Big 12 adds them all and goes to 22 if their media partners go along.
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If the B1G were to add more teams after Oregon and UW, it would be Standford and Cal. They’re AAU schools, and it would give them 6 teams on the west coast to ease the travel burden.
 
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