MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[Gennaker Cane]

So about that extra revenue from subscriber fees.
You're seeing two battles going on concurrently related to the ACC Network and the Big Ten Network.

Providers balked at paying ACC Network in-state market subscriber fees in Texas and California for the entire state. Disney is only getting the in-state rate in the Dallas DMA and SF Bay DMA.

Xfinity is balking at paying the in-state rate in California, Oregon and Washington for the Big Ten Network and doesn't even want to pay it in the LA, Portland and Seattle DMA's.

In addition, the contract between DirecTV and Disney expires at the end of this month, and they haven't reached an agreement yet. Based on the public barbs being traded, it's likely those channels will be going dark in less than a week.

We'll see who blinks first in these disputes.

DirecTV needs Disney, they will make a deal. But the fee issue is huge, getting the extra $$$ isn't as easy as the B1G thought it would be. They aren't going to expand any time unless it costs nothing to the existing schools, and I'm wondering it they are going to be hesitant to expand knowing a carriage fight will occur. Interesting times we live in.

 

[Gennaker Cane]

Brett McMurphy on SiriusXM interview right now [paraphrased]...according to all his sources...

- FSU/Clemson are panicked and realize unless ACC totally collapses, SEC + B1G are not taking them
-- Big XII an option
-- Staying ACC option
- Legal sources are saying GOR likely not going to be ruled invalid, but key question is extension period
- ESPN extension in question
- IF ACC implodes, expect SEC + B1G to both go 20 teams immediately
-- ACC will try to poach American and anybody else
-- BigXII will try to poach ACC "best leftovers"

So, Genetics and Regal and the rest of the self-proclaimed B1G and FSU experts are wrong? Surprise, surprise, surprise.

 

[DTP]

So about that extra revenue from subscriber fees.
You're seeing two battles going on concurrently related to the ACC Network and the Big Ten Network.

Providers balked at paying ACC Network in-state market subscriber fees in Texas and California for the entire state. Disney is only getting the in-state rate in the Dallas DMA and SF Bay DMA.

Xfinity is balking at paying the in-state rate in California, Oregon and Washington for the Big Ten Network and doesn't even want to pay it in the LA, Portland and Seattle DMA's.

In addition, the contract between DirecTV and Disney expires at the end of this month, and they haven't reached an agreement yet. Based on the public barbs being traded, it's likely those channels will be going dark in less than a week.

We'll see who blinks first in these disputes.

So it has begun. I knew these TV contracts were going to eventually reach this point but I wasn’t sure it would happen so fast. The whole idea of conferences just adding extra teams and assuming that every new team would add an extra “x” amount of dollars to the total TV deal always seemed unrealistic to me.

Just for example, say ESPN pays $500m for the TV rights to a 10 team conference. $50m per team, no problem. So the conference goes out and invites 4 new teams to join and all of the sudden that $500m deal becomes a $700m deal? ESPN now has to find a way to squeeze at least another $200m revenue out of its product. They’ve already literally changed the rules to add a 2 minute warning just to squeeze more ads into a broadcast. Are they going to start charging NFL rates for advertising on games that draw a much smaller audience than most regular season NFL games? There’s eventually a point where the TV contacts are going to promise more money than revenue they can drum up. Ince that happens, we will see the big shake up. Contracts will be voided and there will be lawsuits.

New contracts will be made for streaming and that’s when conference loyalty will go out the window. The Vanderbilts and Northwesterns of the world that have been making huge conference cash without providing any athletic value will be relegated to the “non profitable” division of college football and the 65 or so bigger programs will have their own league where they are free to negotiate their own contracts.

 

[Empirical Cane]

So it has begun. I knew these TV contracts were going to eventually reach this point but I wasn’t sure it would happen so fast. The whole idea of conferences just adding extra teams and assuming that every new team would add an extra “x” amount of dollars to the total TV deal always seemed unrealistic to me.

Just for example, say ESPN pays $500m for the TV rights to a 10 team conference. $50m per team, no problem. So the conference goes out and invites 4 new teams to join and all of the sudden that $500m deal becomes a $700m deal? ESPN now has to find a way to squeeze at least another $200m revenue out of its product. They’ve already literally changed the rules to add a 2 minute warning just to squeeze more ads into a broadcast. Are they going to start charging NFL rates for advertising on games that draw a much smaller audience than most regular season NFL games? There’s eventually a point where the TV contacts are going to promise more money than revenue they can drum up. Ince that happens, we will see the big shake up. Contracts will be voided and there will be lawsuits.

New contracts will be made for streaming and that’s when conference loyalty will go out the window. The Vanderbilts and Northwesterns of the world that have been making huge conference cash without providing any athletic value will be relegated to the “non profitable” division of college football and the 65 or so bigger programs will have their own league where they are free to negotiate their own contracts.

IYKYK.

I said it from Day 0.

Where

Does

The

Money

Come

From?

In the end, adults realize 1 + 1 = 2. Math ALWAYS wins eventually.

 

[Rickd]

So, Genetics and Regal and the rest of the self-proclaimed B1G and FSU experts are wrong? Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Conference realignment is all about $$$$. The ruling that at least temporarily stopped the planned launch of VENU sports streaming network + other network disagreements / negotiations on carriage fees etc. has put conference realignment issues on the back burner momentarily. You can be certain that once the NETWORK / Media partner issues are resolved and the scheduling landscape permits ... teams will be moved from whatever conference makes economic sense to the P2.

 

[Empirical Cane]

This ends badly one day.

Very badly.

Goldman Sachs sports boss breaks down the future of private equity investing

Private equity has grown out of its slash and burn reputation and is increasingly being welcomed by all manner of sport investment opportunities.

fortune.com

 

[Yoyo423]

I've been saying it for several years but obviously there's a limited amount of money. Both the networks and conference administrators want to maximize their dollars.

You have teams like Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Purdue, northwestern, Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi State, all getting paid $80mil a year while way more valuable brands like FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, are making $30 mil a year?

It's just not sustainable.. Either the P2 will start reducing what they pay certain programs so they can go ahead and acquire better assets for their conferences or they'll dump the lower value programs all together.

There's just no way they'll continue to overpay for these 8-10 teams while much higher value assets are available.

 

[Calinative]

Brett McMurphy on SiriusXM interview right now [paraphrased]...according to all his sources...

- FSU/Clemson are panicked and realize unless ACC totally collapses, SEC + B1G are not taking them
-- Big XII an option
-- Staying ACC option
- Legal sources are saying GOR likely not going to be ruled invalid, but key question is extension period
- ESPN extension in question
- IF ACC implodes, expect SEC + B1G to both go 20 teams immediately
-- ACC will try to poach American and anybody else
-- BigXII will try to poach ACC "best leftovers"

Seems reasonable

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[Calinative]

 

[scane]

Genetics is furiously messaging people on Warchant and typing up a novel to explain this

 

[Yoyo423]

Assuming we're 4-0 going into week 5, I'll be curious to see what viewership #s we draw on Saturday night 9/27 against VT.

 

[scane]

ESPN nets are blacked out on DirecTV

 

[Hurracanes]

A underrated post. Need to keep winning. Play with swagger. And ratings will get better with time.

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[scane]

 

[CaneinBroward]

This DirectTV **** was all cool until I found out it carries over to ALL AT&T providers (AT&T U-Verse). This **** sucks man. I would have loved to see the Semenholes lose again.

Looks like I may have a lot of free time Saturday before heading to the stadium. LOL

 

[3FW]

Assuming we're 4-0 going into week 5, I'll be curious to see what viewership #s we draw on Saturday night 9/27 against VT.

You will miss the game on Friday if you tune in on Saturday. Plus, we don’t want to go up against Georgia/Alabama.