Haha - I was going to ask the same of you. My last post comparing Duke to Walton was a response to your post. I was comparing Walton to Duke/Berry/James/Yearby - but you chose a section of Walton's career to make the comparison to Duke and didn't acknowledge the other RB's I was including.
I think we both agree Duke is way better than Walton, and Duke was a 3rd round pick. So why would Walton be a 4th?
If you take Walton's 4.4 ypc just his Soph year vs. P5, he's still below Yearby/Berry/Cooper. I agree Walton went from awful to solid in his Freshman to Soph years - but "solid" doesn't equate to a 4th round pick. His overall production+athleticism combined is more on a par with the undrafted Miami RB's.
I'm concentrating on the % of Walton's stats in Non-P5 vs. P5 to show that Walton is racking up his overall stats against Non-P5 way more than any other RB, and his dropoff from Non-P5 to P5 is way steeper. If you just look at his P5 from just his Soph year, Walton still wasn't good in 6 out of 10 games, he has a lower ypc but better TD rate than Cooper & Yearby, and is lower in both than Berry.
This isn't me arguing with you - I'm just getting my general take on Walton vs. How I think most people feel from the posts I read. Here's the difference for me:
Here's Walton's ypc in games vs. P5 starting his Soph year - 2.9, 2.8, 3.4, 3.5, 2.5, 8.9, 6.9, 6.3, 4.5, 3.1, 3.0, 2.5
- Where some see progression, I see Walton reverting to the norm. His ypc literally decreased his last 7 games in a row.
- When Walton averaged 7.7+ ypc in the first 3 games of his Soph year, most thought he was completely changed and improved. I saw a better but basically the same RB, and said wait until we start playing some good teams. Sure enough, he averaged 3.5 or less ypc in his next 5 games.
- Then he has a streak of 3 games over 6+ ypc. Those were statistically great games, no question. But again, I didn't see any transformation. Sure enough, he averages 3.1 or less in 3 of the next 4.
- I think it's overstated how much his ankle affected him in the Duke & FSU games this year. He said he was 100%, reports were it looked like it was no problem in practice, and Richt leaned on him heavily. If his ankle was such a problem against Duke, why was Richt still running Walton late in the 4th up 18 with us playing FSU next week? Walton averaged 3.5 ypc or less in 6 of his 10 P5 games, so why would it be a surprise to anyone when he averaged 3.0 ypc again in 2 P5 games in 2017. The whole overdramatic "he was running on one leg" thing was a justification for those bad games, which was really just the norm for Walton.
- When Yearby wasn't good his Frosh year it was "he was coming off a serious leg injury". Yearby's first 4 games his Soph year were great, but then he fell off when we started playing better teams. It then became "he was playing behind the worst OL to ever play at Miami". There's always an excuse when really, Yearby & Walton just weren't that great of RB's.
- If Walton was healthy, he would've still had some big games this year. He would've had some really bad ones too.
- I understand if people think Walton would've had a big year this year. But for the draft, when you go to look at the what he's put on tape, there's not much to look at vs. good opponents.
I agree with you on Homer as an athlete. Homer is a better RB, and very clearly a better athlete than Walton.
I disagree that Walton should have been THE guy this year. I think Homer was better, and should've been the starter. That's why I don't understand the "Walton will make the NFL on Special Teams" thing. Homer is also easily better in kick coverage than Walton, and that one's not really close.
