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Will Miami win another NC in our lifetime?

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kmwcane said:
JefeGringo said:
In all honesty, if UM does not build a stadium for itself, then that answer is an easy no. There's a guy on here who did all the data work on how the stadium has affected home field advantage and point spreads. Every advantage we had in the OB has been vanquished by that concrete slab in the middle of nowhere. That is what truly haunts the program.

So to me, no home stadium, no national title. We might come close, but people seriously underestimate how much the OB meant during our rise and run.
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I disagree 1000%. Those great Miami teams are what made the Orange Bowl great, not the other way around. Those great teams of the 80's, 90's and '01 would have been just as dominant if they were playing in a high school stadium. Why? Because they were comprised of great players and coaching staffs that knew how to utilize them.

Blaming the lack of an on campus stadium, or the fanbase, or the administration is just another, but less obvious, way to make excuses for the poor coaching that is the true cause of Miami's woes over the past 10 or so years. Get the right coach and Miami will win national titles no matter where the games are played.
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Very difficult to surrender 2 to 2.5 points per home game. An all-time great player isn't worth that much, at any other position than quarterback.

I would argue we didn't realize what we had, partially because 3 of our 5 championships were climaxed in the Orange Bowl. It led to comfort level that the players were the tipping point and not the home impact. Away from the Orange Bowl we lost more championship games than we won, especially if you include 1985 and the likely split title with Oklahoma if we had handled Tennessee.

Margins in sports betting are so slight. That's why I'm always befuddled when people in other areas don't recognize when they are surrendering a critical 2 or 3 or 5 percent. That's what the Canes did in moving to Sun Life. We traded a venue that produced both the longest college and pro winning streaks in history for a bland multi purpose catastrophe in a remote area far from campus, and one that had already demonstrated via 20 years of Dolphin results that it was not only far less impactful than the Orange Bowl, but far below the typical stadium in general.

The Dolphins since moving to Sun Life are -2.0 net in road games, averaging 19.4 while allowing 21.4. That reveals the overall caliber of those teams and should align with a home net in the +3.4 area. Home field is rounded to 3 points on most sites but it's really closer to 2.7 in the NFL. Move that -2.0 by 5.4 points (-2.7 and +2.7) and the Dolphins should have a home net of +3.4. But it's only +2.3 -- 21.5 points scored to 19.2 points allowed. That's terrible. It means the team is performing more than a point below the norm in home games. That's why the late betting invariably moves against the Dolphins in the late going when they are at home. The oddsmakers allow the standard +2.7 to +3.0 but the sharp bettors realize it's long been established that the site isn't worth that much. They take the line down a half point or a full point on Sunday morning. This has been going on for more than a decade.

The Orange Bowl played more than one point above the typical venue. That's where the 2 to 2.5 comes from. I'm actually being conservative because in key games with competitive pointspreads the Orange Bowl actually played 2 points above the norm. The numbers from the games with lopsided spreads drags down the average.

There's no guarantee we could replicate the Orange Bowl advantage but it's virtually guaranteed a new stadium would not play a point or point and a half below the norm. There aren't many of those out there. I studied home impact in football and basketball for years and those heavily slanted venues are quite rare. That's why the oddsmakers are so slow to catch onto it. They are forced to make numbers on literally hundreds of teams and as long as the overall betting trends fall in line with their expectation they don't fret or even notice the occasional exception. Las Vegas is not nearly as sophisticated as conventional wisdom. They don't have to be, not with 11/10 working in their favor every time.
 
sebastian91 said:
kmwcane said:
JefeGringo said:
In all honesty, if UM does not build a stadium for itself, then that answer is an easy no. There's a guy on here who did all the data work on how the stadium has affected home field advantage and point spreads. Every advantage we had in the OB has been vanquished by that concrete slab in the middle of nowhere. That is what truly haunts the program.

So to me, no home stadium, no national title. We might come close, but people seriously underestimate how much the OB meant during our rise and run.
Click to expand...

I disagree 1000%. Those great Miami teams are what made the Orange Bowl great, not the other way around. Those great teams of the 80's, 90's and '01 would have been just as dominant if they were playing in a high school stadium. Why? Because they were comprised of great players and coaching staffs that knew how to utilize them.

Blaming the lack of an on campus stadium, or the fanbase, or the administration is just another, but less obvious, way to make excuses for the poor coaching that is the true cause of Miami's woes over the past 10 or so years. Get the right coach and Miami will win national titles no matter where the games are played.
Click to expand...

Times have changed since the 80s. High school kids now care about stuff like gameday atmosphere (i.e., will ESPN Gameday be there?), fan support, etc. There is no team that can make SunLife "great", IMO, and this program will never get back what it had as long as we're playing there. (This opinion is not meant to excuse **** poor coaching, which is the more immediate issue....the stadium is the over-arching issue holding everything back, IMO)
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Valid points. I would counter with the fact that the biggest factors in a recruit's decision are proximity to home, relationship with coaches and current players and favorable depth chart. I believe other factors, such as the stadium, are much less important and can be easily overcome by a good recruiter.

So, if the stadium issue is what is holding everything back, does that mean you believe Shannon and/or Golden would be/have been more successful and better coaches if Miami played in the Orange Bowl? My point being that I just don't see how the Orange Bowl, or any other stadium for that matter, could make up for below average coaching. Also, does that mean you think a great college coach, like say Saban, would have less success because they played home games at SunLife stadium? I just have a hard time swallowing that line of reasoning.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
kmwcane said:
JefeGringo said:
In all honesty, if UM does not build a stadium for itself, then that answer is an easy no. There's a guy on here who did all the data work on how the stadium has affected home field advantage and point spreads. Every advantage we had in the OB has been vanquished by that concrete slab in the middle of nowhere. That is what truly haunts the program.

So to me, no home stadium, no national title. We might come close, but people seriously underestimate how much the OB meant during our rise and run.
Click to expand...

I disagree 1000%. Those great Miami teams are what made the Orange Bowl great, not the other way around. Those great teams of the 80's, 90's and '01 would have been just as dominant if they were playing in a high school stadium. Why? Because they were comprised of great players and coaching staffs that knew how to utilize them.

Blaming the lack of an on campus stadium, or the fanbase, or the administration is just another, but less obvious, way to make excuses for the poor coaching that is the true cause of Miami's woes over the past 10 or so years. Get the right coach and Miami will win national titles no matter where the games are played.
Click to expand...

Very difficult to surrender 2 to 2.5 points per home game. An all-time great player isn't worth that much, at any other position than quarterback.

I would argue we didn't realize what we had, partially because 3 of our 5 championships were climaxed in the Orange Bowl. It led to comfort level that the players were the tipping point and not the home impact. Away from the Orange Bowl we lost more championship games than we won, especially if you include 1985 and the likely split title with Oklahoma if we had handled Tennessee.

Margins in sports betting are so slight. That's why I'm always befuddled when people in other areas don't recognize when they are surrendering a critical 2 or 3 or 5 percent. That's what the Canes did in moving to Sun Life. We traded a venue that produced both the longest college and pro winning streaks in history for a bland multi purpose catastrophe in a remote area far from campus, and one that had already demonstrated via 20 years of Dolphin results that it was not only far less impactful than the Orange Bowl, but far below the typical stadium in general.

The Dolphins since moving to Sun Life are -2.0 net in road games, averaging 19.4 while allowing 21.4. That reveals the overall caliber of those teams and should align with a home net in the +3.4 area. Home field is rounded to 3 points on most sites but it's really closer to 2.7 in the NFL. Move that -2.0 by 5.4 points (-2.7 and +2.7) and the Dolphins should have a home net of +3.4. But it's only +2.3 -- 21.5 points scored to 19.2 points allowed. That's terrible. It means the team is performing more than a point below the norm in home games. That's why the late betting invariably moves against the Dolphins in the late going when they are at home. The oddsmakers allow the standard +2.7 to +3.0 but the sharp bettors realize it's long been established that the site isn't worth that much. They take the line down a half point or a full point on Sunday morning. This has been going on for more than a decade.

The Orange Bowl played more than one point above the typical venue. That's where the 2 to 2.5 comes from. I'm actually being conservative because in key games with competitive pointspreads the Orange Bowl actually played 2 points above the norm. The numbers from the games with lopsided spreads drags down the average.

There's no guarantee we could replicate the Orange Bowl advantage but it's virtually guaranteed a new stadium would not play a point or point and a half below the norm. There aren't many of those out there. I studied home impact in football and basketball for years and those heavily slanted venues are quite rare. That's why the oddsmakers are so slow to catch onto it. They are forced to make numbers on literally hundreds of teams and as long as the overall betting trends fall in line with their expectation they don't fret or even notice the occasional exception. Las Vegas is not nearly as sophisticated as conventional wisdom. They don't have to be, not with 11/10 working in their favor every time.
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Again, nice points all around but we will just have to agree to disagree. I think the stadium issue is much bigger and important to the fans than it is to players/coaches. The bottom line is that football is still just 11 vs 11 on the field and the team with better coaches and talent will win 99% of the time. I find it hard to imagine the 1987 wouldn't have been as good as it was if it had played its home games somewhere besides the Orange Bowl.

Miami has been lacking in the coaching department for over a decade now. Good coaching and recruiting can overcome anything at Miami. Hopefully Miami will hire a good coach soon so that my opinion can be put to the test!
 
I'm 21, and I gotta say yes...at least I hope so but a lot has to change we have to get a President who gives a ****, I hope the next President after ole' Donna puts in the money $$$ to be a Championship

and we gotta get the **** out of Sun Lifeless Stadium
 
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kmwcane said:
sebastian91 said:
kmwcane said:
JefeGringo said:
In all honesty, if UM does not build a stadium for itself, then that answer is an easy no. There's a guy on here who did all the data work on how the stadium has affected home field advantage and point spreads. Every advantage we had in the OB has been vanquished by that concrete slab in the middle of nowhere. That is what truly haunts the program.

So to me, no home stadium, no national title. We might come close, but people seriously underestimate how much the OB meant during our rise and run.
Click to expand...

I disagree 1000%. Those great Miami teams are what made the Orange Bowl great, not the other way around. Those great teams of the 80's, 90's and '01 would have been just as dominant if they were playing in a high school stadium. Why? Because they were comprised of great players and coaching staffs that knew how to utilize them.

Blaming the lack of an on campus stadium, or the fanbase, or the administration is just another, but less obvious, way to make excuses for the poor coaching that is the true cause of Miami's woes over the past 10 or so years. Get the right coach and Miami will win national titles no matter where the games are played.
Click to expand...

Times have changed since the 80s. High school kids now care about stuff like gameday atmosphere (i.e., will ESPN Gameday be there?), fan support, etc. There is no team that can make SunLife "great", IMO, and this program will never get back what it had as long as we're playing there. (This opinion is not meant to excuse **** poor coaching, which is the more immediate issue....the stadium is the over-arching issue holding everything back, IMO)
Click to expand...

Valid points. I would counter with the fact that the biggest factors in a recruit's decision are proximity to home, relationship with coaches and current players and favorable depth chart. I believe other factors, such as the stadium, are much less important and can be easily overcome by a good recruiter.

So, if the stadium issue is what is holding everything back, does that mean you believe Shannon and/or Golden would be/have been more successful and better coaches if Miami played in the Orange Bowl? My point being that I just don't see how the Orange Bowl, or any other stadium for that matter, could make up for below average coaching. Also, does that mean you think a great college coach, like say Saban, would have less success because they played home games at SunLife stadium? I just have a hard time swallowing that line of reasoning.
Click to expand...

The stadium itself isn't so much the issue...the location of the stadium, the design of the stadium, the cost of tickets and parking, etc., are major factors determining whether or not fans will come to the games, ESPECIALLY when the team isn't in the midst of a title hunt (which will be most of the time, as it is for every other program out there when you look at the big picture). These things, when combined with the fan response, determine the "gameday atmosphere"...let's just say that the gameday atmosphere at SunLife, whether it's the Fins or Canes, is lacking at best. That gameday atmosphere is undoubtedly affecting our ability to bring in elite recruits and keep local kids from going away to play football.

Recruits go to the games (especially if they're local). They know what the games are like when it isn't UF.ag or Free Shoes or Notre Lame coming to town. They also know what the community as a whole is like, and how they 'support' their hometown teams (I use 'support' very loosely here). So, yes, in a way, I do believe that even Randy would have been a better coach because everything else would have trickled down to the on-field product. I believe that his ceiling would have been higher, but he still was an awful CEO (pretty good coach, IMO....just not good at everything else that goes along with being the CEO).

Saban coached for 2 seasons in that stadium. 9-7 and 6-10. Not very good results for a 'great' coach. I'm not saying that a crappy stadium determines outcomes of individual games, or makes good coaches bad. I'm saying that a crappy stadium situation can trickle down to all levels of a program's success, accumulating as it goes, until the on-field product ultimately suffers the most. Fix the stadium situation, and then we can start talking about whether this program can ever return to what it once was. That's just my opinion, based on my 40+ years of being within and around this program and university.
 
I should have provided the Dolphin Orange Bowl years for some context. From 1966 through 1986 the Dolphins averaged 20.5 points per game on the road and allowed 19.9, for a net of +.6. That should have been parallel to a home edge of +6.0. But the Orange Bowl accounted for a net edge of +7.5. Miami averaged 24.3 and allowed 16.8.

Those years are a great cross section because they included expansion seasons, dynasty seasons and some moderate seasons. The 16.8 defensive number is particularly amazing. I've never seen anything like that, in studying home and road games over a 20+ year period. This requires some subjectivity but I believe the Orange Bowl noise dynamic was particularly vital to the home team defense, allowing it to play beyond its actual level.

Anyway, it rounds out to a stadium that played basically 1.5 points above standard. That's where I get the 2 to 2.5 point variance, with Sun Life playing 1 point worse than the norm and the Orange Bowl 1.5 points above.

It may not sound like much unless you are a gambler and know the math. The sportsbooks charge an extra 10 cents (-110 to -120) merely to buy an extra half point. We gave up 2 or 2.5 points per game for fun and want to pretend nothing changed.
 
Can't have a championship program when your home stadium is 35 miles away. There's no way to sell that to a recruit coming from out of state when they see the Alabama's, FSU's, and other top programs with on-campus stadiums that actually give their team a home-field advantage. Until the stadium issue gets resolved we aren't winning a **** thing, guaranteed.
 
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Sure as **** hope so but won't happen until the defense gets their collective heads out of their asses and we get a true pocket passer at qb.
 
Won't happen with this staff. Winning the NC just got harder with the 4 team playoff. If you can't out scheme another team, you have what we have now.
 
We will win another NC, I'd say within 5 years. But will we have another dynasty (i.e. 2 or 3 titles in a 4 year stretch) then I'd say no. Definitely not.
 
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With the right coaching staff, absolutely. There is enough talent in south Florida and even with the perceived shortcomings associated with the program in comparison to the SEC, Miami will still get its fair share of players from the region to the point where talent should not be an issue.

What we need is a coaching staff that develops that talent and utilizes it properly. We don't have that now.
 
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I could go either way on this one. With DS and the other powers that be in control, not a chance. Before someone says it happened once before, sure it did, and I'll say it was dumb luck. The last three hires have demonstrated they are out of touch with what it takes to be a top program. The buffoonery that's gone on since the latest mistakes extension, it's been a joke.
 
Let's see, fsu just won one using our old defensive blueprint and a squad full of South Florida players. If Kaaya is real I say yes we will within 4 years.
 
This thing can turn around quick. We just need a good season of Miami football. That bowl game fiasco still lingers with us and won't go away until something good happens.
 
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