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Why Waiting for Blue Chips is a Dangerous Game

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JgDaCane said:
Yeah certain posters here think we can go 5-7 every year & Mario will continue to land great classes. Doesn't work like that here at Miami.
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There are some who believe that, but I think most reasonable posters understand another poor showing will likely torpedo this class. Mario needs a successful season to sell the future of the program. The good news is he knows.

Close out the summer with some good commitments. Execute on both sides of the ball and show an exciting product on the field once the games start. Win at least 8 games and don't get flattened in the losses. Hold our best recruits and pick up a handful of studs "on the fence" to close.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread 🚨🚨

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but even factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.

Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.
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Long AF post, but good stuff. Thanks
 
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OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
If UM recruiting makes you nervous, you need to reevaluate.

I might get nervous over something that may have a real impact on my life, but people forget this is a hobby time activity. If it elicits negative emotions, you need to take a step back.
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It's not that serious my guy. It's just a word to describe a situation. We all know how terribly cool and calm you are when you aren't going out of your way to comment on message boards about how cool and calm you are. 😀
 
Dude said:
It's not that serious my guy. It's just a word to describe a situation. We all know how terribly cool and calm you are when you aren't going out of your way to comment on message boards about how cool and calm you are. 😀
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Dude, you’re right it’s not that serious, so I suggest you react more like your avi name and chill, instead of having anxiety attacks.
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread 🚨🚨

It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).

I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.

23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)

There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).

So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.

But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!

Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.

But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.

I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.

April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)

Total = 259/315 (82.2%)

So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.

So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…

Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.

So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but even factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.

Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.

#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)

I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.

The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?

Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.

It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.

If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.

Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.
Click to expand...
this is a great post. thank you for taking the time to formulate and express your thoughts and conclusions.
 
OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
Are you calm now, dude? Deep breaths. Mindfulness. You’ll be OK, just keep working on it.
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Until we actually start whiffing on our targets, there's no need to panic. So far, we've missed on Air Noland and Jeremiah Smith to no one's surprise really and we still have a very small chance of flipping Jeremiah. (Really super duper small, but he hasn't said no....yet). If we miss on Stone, Scott, Franklin, Breland, LJ McCray, Jericho Johnson and Artavius Jones, then we definitely have reason to panic. Personally I think we will get at least 2 of those 7 names, maybe more.

Much like life, recruiting is a journey - strap in and hold on and GO CANES!
 
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Michael Jackson Mj GIF

Our recruits going from ‘Cane leans to 50/50 battles

(just jokes not that serious)
 
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Dude said:
I don't want to get too into specifics about names, I don't want to cast negativity about any committed players. But some of those guys that "aren't takes," should be over guys we have currently committed.
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Dude said:
It's not that serious my guy. It's just a word to describe a situation. We all know how terribly cool and calm you are when you aren't going out of your way to comment on message boards about how cool and calm you are. 😀
Click to expand...
Fair points

My whole thing is I guess I’ve always been sorta waiting for late July-August gettin closer to the season to evaluate everything

It’s almost like an early signing period before early signing period so **** is absolutely gonna be hitting the fan every day

Makes it fun for sure. Check back with me in August you won’t catch me saying “it’s only August” by then I think we will have some clearer answers, at least the ones that can’t be answered until we play some games

I dunno. Rambling. You always post good stuff
 
I wonder if people would be unhappy if we missed most of the 5*, and this is the floor of the recruiting class. Especially knowing that a few of the 3* maybe 4* by the end of the recruitment cycle.

Judd Anderson (3*)

Kevin Riley (4*)
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey (3*)

Joshisa Trader (5*)
Chance Robinson (4*)
Lawayne McCoy (4*)
Jacory Barney Jr. (4*)

Elija Lofton (4*)

Juan Minaya (3*)
Deryc Plazz (3*)
Moritz Schmoranzer (3*)

LJ McCray (4*)
Kendall Jackson (4*)

Kamarion Franklin (4*)
Artavius Jones (4*)
Daylen Russell (3*)

Chris Cole (4*)
Vincent Shavers (3*)
Cameron Pruitt (3*)

Dylan Day (3*)
Ryan Mack (3*)
Romanas Frederique Jr. (3*)

Zaquan Patterson (4*)
Isaiah Thomas (3*)

Abram Murray (3*)

Total: 25

(5*) = 1
(4*) = 11
(3*) = 13
 
EightiesCane said:
I wonder if people would be unhappy if we missed most of the 5*, and this is the floor of the recruiting class. Especially knowing that a few of the 3* maybe 4* by the end of the recruitment cycle.

Judd Anderson (3*)

Kevin Riley (4*)
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey (3*)

Joshisa Trader (5*)
Chance Robinson (4*)
Lawayne McCoy (4*)
Jacory Barney Jr. (4*)

Elija Lofton (4*)

Juan Minaya (3*)
Deryc Plazz (3*)
Moritz Schmoranzer (3*)

LJ McCray (4*)
Kendall Jackson (4*)

Kamarion Franklin (4*)
Artavius Jones (4*)
Daylen Russell (3*)

Chris Cole (4*)
Vincent Shavers (3*)
Cameron Pruitt (3*)

Dylan Day (3*)
Ryan Mack (3*)
Romanas Frederique Jr. (3*)

Zaquan Patterson (4*)
Isaiah Thomas (3*)

Abram Murray (3*)

Total: 25

(5*) = 1
(4*) = 11
(3*) = 13
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That would be a very disappointing DB haul
 
Dude said:
There are seventeen 4*, and two 5* kids in SoFL. We have 1 committed. This class sucks, no way to spin it otherwise. 2 of them are DL from Columbus... yes that Columbus. We are trying to get lucky but the numbers tell us we lost SoFL and Mario hasn't been the instant fix there that many hoped he would be. Now we are waiting on winning games, not good.
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I’ve been beating this drum for a while now. The problem is, when you take off the rose-colored glasses and try to be honest with people you’re called a “bad fan” or “unreasonable”. The bottom line is this is an extremely underwhelming class and not what we expected when we brought Mario in. It’s not just that there’s a bunch of 3 stars, but many of them are low 3’s and not even in the top 500 players. When you see that our class average is on par with Purdue it makes you wonder wtf we are doing. I just don’t get many of the takes in this class, at all.
 
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