I want to preface this by saying this is going to be another long, data-filled thread
It’s not going to be pretty - in fact I think it’ll be pretty divisive. But it’s a message board, and people are allowed to formulate their own opinions, to which I look forward to seeing what people think of this. A lot of the information I will post below, will be copied from previous posts I made concerning the following: current blue-chip players committed, summer commitment %, how often they stick, and traditional recruiting powerhouses that haven’t kicked into gear (such as us).
I see a lot of posters and insiders now saying that the season will dictate how our class finishes. A few have alluded to us whiffing on kids. Well, let’s start off with the number of top247 composite kids (original had just 247 kids) currently committed to a school.
23 of the top 50 are committed (46%)
49 of the top 100 are committed (49%)
76 of the top 150 are committed (50.6%)
107 of the top 200 are committed (53.5%)
141 of the top 250 are committed (56.4%)
There are also 11 kids in the top 247 committing between today and July 8th (there’s some more scheduled after that date as well). Moreover, there are 13 additional 4-star players committing between those dates. I didn’t do the calculations on all 4 and 5 stars because this first rankings update in a few weeks will probably see the most movement; however I thought it was a safe bet that 95% of the current top 250 kids will stay in the top 450 (all 4 and 5 stars).
So we see that 56.4% are currently committed, and by July 8th (not counting the ones that just pop without a set date between now and the aforementioned date), 60.8% of them will be committed to a school. We’re seeing more summer commitments than ever. Cribby alluded to this a while back.
But WeBallinBoyz, who cares about summer rankings. You’re just being an impatient, greedy star *****. And there’s always the power of the flip once we have a great season!
Well yes, maybe I’ve been a bit impatient the last 2-3 days despite reminding myself that July and August are still to come. Of course guys are going to get flipped, and I reckon we will have some of those. We did it with Collins and Horton last year, and also experienced losses of Lew, Cormani and Antoine.
But why am I so overly concerned about the next six-ish weeks? Because the data shows kids don’t flip as often as you think. Josh Pate alluded to a 90% retention rate on July commits on one of his shows, so I was curious as to see if that really was the case. I was expecting somewhere in the 70% range.
I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450-ish kids) and churned out these numbers concerning blue-chip commitment months and when (or if) they flipped.
April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)
Total = 259/315 (82.2%)
So it’s not 90%, but it’s above 80…Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%). Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%). A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.
So we see 82.2% of blue-chips that commit between April and August stick. But, there’s some caveats to the 56 that de-committed in this timeframe…
Stanford and Cincinnati experienced coaching changes; two players from the Cardinal de-committed to rival Pac-12 schools (Utah and USC, improvements), and six Bearcats in the top 450 upon Fickell’s departure (to various schools, all improvements).
There were three obvious improvements in competition, with players backing out of commitments to Northwestern, Arkansas St and Vandy to join Oregon, Auburn and LSU (respectively). We’re now down to 45 true de-commits, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of the Colorado saga or other unique 2023 examples.
So…yeah. My numbers may be off by a couple kids, but even factoring in some human error…Kids commit in the summer, and a vast majority stick. To think we’ll jump from (for example) an 18th-ranked class and flip errybody is completely biased. FSU and TCU both had great seasons, and yet aren’t seeing a sizable increase in commits. Success on the field doesn’t necessarily = ‘croots.
Last thing I want to leave everyone with are some teams that, like us, are just sitting back and getting ready to take off recruiting-wise.
#8 USC - 13 commits (10 four-stars, 3 3-stars)
#11 Tennessee - 14 commits (9 four-stars, 5 three-stars)
#12 Clemson - 12 commits (2 five-stars, 8-four stars, 2 3-stars)
#13 SCar - 12 commits (8 four-stars, 5 3-stars)
#24 Texas A&M - 11 commits (7 4-stars, 4 3-stars)
#28 Miami - 13 commits (3 4-stars, 10 3-stars)
#32 Alabama - 8 commits (3 5-stars, 4 4-stars, 1 3-star)
#44 Auburn - 8 commits (6 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
#45 Oklahoma - 8 commits (5 4-stars, 3 3-stars)
#54 Texas - 7 commits (5 4-stars, 2 3-stars)
I didn’t even mention FSU, who sits at #21 nationally (11 commits) because if
THEY finish above us in recruiting…someone needs to be held accountable.
The allure of Mario included how tough his teams are and solid trench play, sure….but it’s the sheer recruiting power and success in that department that really sold a lot of people on here. If in Year 2, we’re already making excuses as to why we’re not raking in elite talent and saying “wait for games”…then what are we doing? Isn’t that the same thought process with Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon?
Again, that last sentence is just food for thought and something to keep in the back of your head if the stars are lagging behind. It’s not me throwing in the towel and it’s not me comparing Mario to those three buffoons + a sick and burnt out Richt. It’s still June. But July is here, then it’ll be August…then it’s time to play games.
It’s time for the studs to jump in the boat. This is the expectation and always will be. It’s why Mario allegedly gutted the staff and replaced them with elite, hungry recruiters. It’s what he told all the fans when we went 5-7 and to be patient while we bring in elite player after elite player.
If anyone wants to chime in with more data or opinions/questions, feel free. I’m an analytics junkie and love lookin this ish up.
Show us results Mario. It’s in there, it’s time to close.
