forums

Official The OC Candidates Thread 2.0

Status
Not open for further replies.
Advertisement
No_Fly_Zone said:
Pretending? This is verifiable fact. Taggert called the plays throughout his tenure at Oregon. It is known, Khaleesi.

And your second paragraph as much spin as it is context. Superstar or not, he did just as well with him as Taggert did in Arroyo's first year calling plays, then the offense impoved from 41st to 19th his next season.

Context is great. But when context is provided in some instances and ignored in others, you run the risk of appearing biased.

As far as F+, let us not ignore how heavily it skews in favor of talented teams. It's components (FEI and SP+) are essentially designed to predict scoring advantage and efficiency against an "average opponent" (whatever subjective ranking methodology that entails) on a neutral field. But if you are a below average college football team, talent wise, it should come as no surprise that your team isn't ranked very high in F+.

This makes it a less-than-stellar metric for comparing coaching resumes, especially G5 coaches. And I suspect there are at least a dozen coaches with teams ranked in the bottom half of DF+ who could show up at UGA tomorrow and field a top 20 DF+ 2023 season while chasing co-eds.

Comparing stats within the conference utilizing only conference games, looking at how teams performed before/during/after a coach arrives, and using advanced stats like @Lance Roffers does to determine how a coach performed compared to his opponents' average performance on the season in critical categories (like YPP and PPG) is far more persuasive to me.

But to each his own.
Click to expand...

Actually one of the biggest faults I have with analytic models is that it doesn’t factor in talent enough.

Like when S&P+ would constantly have Wisconsin as a Top 10 team and legit NC contender. I would always say, “just give me the team with the recruiting class rankings.” Same thing with TCU this past season. They are maybe a 7 win team in the SEC. But the analytic model has them as a Top 10 team overall.

But to that extent it’s great evidence of how good of a coaching job you’re doing.

And I have no idea what you’re talking about with ignoring context? I have only said I ignore context when *every* season seems to have an excuse.

And I remember when Enos was Hired, Roffers used whatever metrics he has to try to convince everybody that Enos’ Central Michigan offenses were good. I told him he was wrong, and used the analytic models I’ve used in this thread, as evidence. I’m confident hindsight proved me right, and him wrong.

But as you said, to each his own.
 
AllAboutTheU13 said:
Maybe it’s the names we haven’t heard that we should be paying attention to 👀
Click to expand...
But…how can we pay attention to them if we’ve never heard them???

1676067796631.gif
 
Mackmiller974 said:
Man you really are into football outsiders lol
Click to expand...

Not really. I like F+ because it’s a composite of two really good models. So you get a 2 for 1, and also avoid “stat shopping.”

But I also like Reddit’s EPA. And others.

I’m also not sure what stats I should be into though? It can’t just be “yards” and such.
 
Advertisement
mossmadness said:
Not really. I like F+ because it’s a composite of two really good models. So you get a 2 for 1, and also avoid “stat shopping.”

But I also like Reddit’s EPA. And others.

I’m also not sure what stats I should be into though? It can’t just be “yards” and such.
Click to expand...
Something that combines stats with level of talent. Let's say an OC has offense that's ranked 80th, can you really blame them if they have a Freshman Robert Marve type at QB?
 
Advertisement
Mackmiller974 said:
Mullens had similar seasons

2015
41TDs 12INTs in 14 games

2016
28 total TDs 11 INTs in 11 games

Also Southern Miss lost 3 of it's top weapons from 2015.

Jalen Richard 1400 Total Yards 16TDs
Michael Thomas 1400 yards 14TDs
Casey Martin 925 Yards 7TDs.

So yes variables
Click to expand...
I guess he could've thrown 14 more TDs over those 3 games that he missed. So the passing TDs would've been even. But unlikely. He certainly wasn't better. The weapons point is legitimate. Or the previous offense produced good results and if the previous coaching staff had remained the next crop of guys would've put up yards and points too. We're still talking about one of his good years though. When almost all the others hav been **** and questions about whether his best year involved the HC taking over later in the season. He would have no such cover here.

So Shannon Dawson just can't catch a break. Been apart of below average offenses his entire career but what he needs to do is come to Miami which is lacking in talent at WR, has an unproven OL and a QB room that needs to a real shot in the arm of confidence. Seems like a great match.
 
Mackmiller974 said:
Something that combines stats with level of talent. Let's say an OC has offense that's ranked 80th, can you really blame them if they have a Freshman Robert Marve type at QB?
Click to expand...

Dont’ know. Maybe not for that season. But what did they do the other seasons?

Analytic models are great. I agree there can be outliers that require even more context. Injuries. Maybe you played 4 games that year in the snow. Etc.

But when you’re making those arguments over the entire course of a career, that you‘ve lost me. As I tell clients, ‘If you’re explaining, you’re losing.“

And it just seems like every OC on the list have a whole lot of seasons that need some explaining.
 
Advertisement
Advertisement
Status
Not open for further replies.
Advertisement
Back
Top