The Bank (10/24)

[cway313]

It's always you.

A time has to come when you reflect on how little you matter. If not keep up the work.

 

[Suhrthing]

A time has to come when you reflect on how little you matter. If not keep up the work.

K

 

[L A M P]

Listen I’m not gonna sit here and act like it’s a great defense but let’s not exaggerate

I get the numbers but post the schedule. We've played no good offenses this season. Cal put up their season high against us. Louisville put up their season high (D1). VT, USF, UF are all just bad. Thank God for Cam.

 

[Combo]

Season is going too well to worry about a side show like recruiting right now. You add the fact that the HC is a recruiter with a history of closing strong and you have a situation where if you are worried right now, it’s just your natural inclination.

I’ll wait til after the season. There are concerns for sure but I have a feeling a good amount are worked out and if not we will have a long offseason to fret over them.

Mario has a history of closing strong. We have a recent history of not recruiting well at DB. Which wins this year?

 

[theibisrules]

My gawd...that offensive line haul would be very offensive for the acc. JUST FOLD THE PROGRUM, TOO MANY COLOSSAL GIANTS THAT CAN MOVE gee whiz.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

My 7 iron ******* sucks

 

[Shogungts]

Sure, if we want to just make **** up

Among ACC schools:
- 7th in Points allowed
- 5th in Passing yards/game
- 2nd in Rush yards/game
- 1st in Total yards/game allowed
- 5th in Avg Yards/Play
- 2nd in 1st downs given up
- 3rd in INTs, 2nd to last in Fumble recoveries (bad)
- 3rd to last in 1st downs given up by Penalties (so bad).

Doesn't look nearly as good when looking at only in conference results. Small sample size for us (3 ACC games) but think the truth is somewhere in between in conference stats and the pretty rosy picture the stats above show.

Pts per game ( was pulled from the Syracuse vs Pitt game thread which is why Pitt is highlighted)

Yards per game

 

[Brooklyndee]

for every Samson there’s a Cici

That's not a fair portrayal to put on Samson. He was injured in year 1 of a developmental year. The kids upside is monumental. Now do we know if he'll reach his potential. No of course not. But he's in year #1 essentially coming out of playing high school competition and receiving coaching that didn't help him previously to transition into this level. Give the kid some time before he's wrote off brother.

 

[P-Tizzle]

View attachment 308532
Listen I’m not gonna sit here and act like it’s a great defense but let’s not exaggerate

my brother in the Lord, I think the fans are criticizing our defense based on the ACC games we have played and not the entire season taking into account: Ball St. FAMU, USF.

verses VT, Miami gave up 394 total yards;
verses Cal, Miami gave up 370 total yards
verses UL, Miami gave up 342 total yards.

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

This post isn't aimed at anyone in particular, but the above is the right synopsis.

Because we are so close to Miami we are intimately aware of the misses and how often they happen. It feels like a lot. When in reality, the hit percentages on evaluations are a lot lower than you'd expect at every school.

In the world of analytics, data isn't telling better than your eye test because your eyes are bad at the games you're watching. Data is better than your eyes because data can watch every single game/program/evaluation in the country, while your eyes can watch only one.

I liken it to the NFL draft, where a fan is keenly aware of the busts their team drafts. The data tells you that over 50% of first round picks bust and the draft becomes flat around pick 100 because the returns on picks after that are essentially even with any pick or priority UDFA after that.

It's an interesting study opportunity if someone wanted to put in the work. I did a study called Legs Race a few years back that looked at athleticism to All-Conference players, so All-Conference was kind of what I was testing towards. You'd need to define what metric or threshold satisfies a "hit" on an evaluation or a "miss" but it would be useful data for fans to understand just how often every single team misses.

Hopefully our coaching staff understands the percentages towards recruiting and realizes if you need two, recruit four, because you'll probably have two bust.

Very well said Lance.

The major difference is that Saban was a beast at both recruiting and evaluating. He nailed so many evaluations. That plus being a defensive guru, putting his guys in a position to constantly succeed = longevity and success. He didn’t find just good players. His hits, are NFL 1st rounders. His eye for talent was absurd, and when he wanted someone, he rarely lost that battle.

Mario has not. Not at Oregon, not at Miami (yet). Recruiting, absolutely killing it. Evals…short answer is no. Just not quite there. Not enough dudes that you look at and say “oh this guy can change college football”.

We can go through the list at the end of the season because I want to give younger guys like Malik Bryant a full chance to show off his game (and he’s an example of someone that’s improved since he got to campus, thank you for the position change).

But if you really start going through the list, the emergence (or lack thereof) of young bodies has not related to the stars and portal guys brought in…for every 1-2 hits, there’s 5-6 misses. For every Bain and Mauigoa (which might be the only two at this point), there’s 10+ that can’t quite hack it yet despite being ranked highly. And like you said, it needs to be closer to 50%.

Now I totally get kids need time to develop. I’m not pushing them out the door, I’m not saying Mario is a bad recruiter. That is not true.

Personally, I do think adding more analysts should help with evals. Guys like Frank Tucker etc. I’m just alluding to what we have in front of us right now, particularly guys that should be ready to contribute on the defensive side of the ball, but aren’t. We need more instant-impact, bonafide studs that will play and ball from day 1.

We don’t have many in this 2025 class…yet.

 

[SWFLSWAGG17]

Me or these keep getting worse?

You're not the most positive fellow, are you?

Still GO CANES my dude

 

[P-Tizzle]

Very well said Lance.

The major difference is that Saban was a beast at both recruiting and evaluating. He nailed so many evaluations. That plus being a defensive guru, putting his guys in a position to constantly succeed = longevity and success. He didn’t find just good players. His hits, are NFL 1st rounders. His eye for talent was absurd, and when he wanted someone, he rarely lost that battle.

Mario has not. Not at Oregon, not at Miami (yet). Recruiting, absolutely killing it. Evals…short answer is no. Just not quite there. Not enough dudes that you look at and say “oh this guy can change college football”.

We can go through the list at the end of the season because I want to give younger guys like Malik Bryant a full chance to show off his game (and he’s an example of someone that’s improved since he got to campus, thank you for the position change).

But if you really start going through the list, the emergence (or lack thereof) of young bodies has not related to the stars and portal guys brought in…for every 1-2 hits, there’s 5-6 misses. For every Bain and Mauigoa (which might be the only two at this point), there’s 10+ that can’t quite hack it yet despite being ranked highly. And like you said, it needs to be closer to 50%.

Now I totally get kids need time to develop. I’m not pushing them out the door, I’m not saying Mario is a bad recruiter. That is not true.

Personally, I do think adding more analysts should help with evals. Guys like Frank Tucker etc. I’m just alluding to what we have in front of us right now, particularly guys that should be ready to contribute on the defensive side of the ball, but aren’t. We need more instant-impact, bonafide studs that will play and ball from day 1.

We don’t have many in this 2025 class…yet.

I agree with what you are saying but comparing Mario to the greatest college football coach of all time isn't fair either.

 

[Lance Roffers]

Very well said Lance.

The major difference is that Saban was a beast at both recruiting and evaluating. He nailed so many evaluations. That plus being a defensive guru, putting his guys in a position to constantly succeed = longevity and success. He didn’t find just good players. His hits, are NFL 1st rounders. His eye for talent was absurd, and when he wanted someone, he rarely lost that battle.

Mario has not. Not at Oregon, not at Miami (yet). Recruiting, absolutely killing it. Evals…short answer is no. Just not quite there. Not enough dudes that you look at and say “oh this guy can change college football”.

We can go through the list at the end of the season because I want to give younger guys like Malik Bryant a full chance to show off his game (and he’s an example of someone that’s improved since he got to campus, thank you for the position change).

But if you really start going through the list, the emergence (or lack thereof) of young bodies has not related to the stars and portal guys brought in…for every 1-2 hits, there’s 5-6 misses. For every Bain and Mauigoa (which might be the only two at this point), there’s 10+ that can’t quite hack it yet despite being ranked highly. And like you said, it needs to be closer to 50%.

Now I totally get kids need time to develop. I’m not pushing them out the door, I’m not saying Mario is a bad recruiter. That is not true.

Personally, I do think adding more analysts should help with evals. Guys like Frank Tucker etc. I’m just alluding to what we have in front of us right now, particularly guys that should be ready to contribute on the defensive side of the ball, but aren’t. We need more instant-impact, bonafide studs that will play and ball from day 1.

We don’t have many in this 2025 class…yet.

How much of this is a failure to develop rather than a failure to evaluate?

The problem with this, like so many elements of football, is the sheer variance in the data that can occur. It's hard to draw sweeping conclusions that the problem is this or that.

A good coach here might not be successful there. Same with a recruit.

Mario probably isn't greatest of all-time good. I agree there.

The question is what's your threshold? If it's greatest of all-time good, it probably isn't ever getting met. If it's top-10 of FCS, maybe it is getting met.

You'd have to run the analysis, account for confounding variables, normalize where you can, control where you can, and then see where you land.

Something as simple as an injury to the player robbing half a step can be the difference for them. A position coach that teaches it so it clicks for a player could leave before that click moment occurs.

Greg Rousseau gained the weight and Cyrus Moss couldn't. Moss was probably a bad eval, but one could argue he's sound process and just fell victim to the same variance that befalls so many top MLB prospects.

This isn't linear. You get one this year, you might just miss one next year. The result is less important to me then the process. From what I'm told, Miami's process continues to evolve and improve YoY.

 

[305_separatist]

Very well said Lance.

The major difference is that Saban was a beast at both recruiting and evaluating. He nailed so many evaluations. That plus being a defensive guru, putting his guys in a position to constantly succeed = longevity and success. He didn’t find just good players. His hits, are NFL 1st rounders. His eye for talent was absurd, and when he wanted someone, he rarely lost that battle.

Mario has not. Not at Oregon, not at Miami (yet). Recruiting, absolutely killing it. Evals…short answer is no. Just not quite there. Not enough dudes that you look at and say “oh this guy can change college football”.

We can go through the list at the end of the season because I want to give younger guys like Malik Bryant a full chance to show off his game (and he’s an example of someone that’s improved since he got to campus, thank you for the position change).

But if you really start going through the list, the emergence (or lack thereof) of young bodies has not related to the stars and portal guys brought in…for every 1-2 hits, there’s 5-6 misses. For every Bain and Mauigoa (which might be the only two at this point), there’s 10+ that can’t quite hack it yet despite being ranked highly. And like you said, it needs to be closer to 50%.

Now I totally get kids need time to develop. I’m not pushing them out the door, I’m not saying Mario is a bad recruiter. That is not true.

Personally, I do think adding more analysts should help with evals. Guys like Frank Tucker etc. I’m just alluding to what we have in front of us right now, particularly guys that should be ready to contribute on the defensive side of the ball, but aren’t. We need more instant-impact, bonafide studs that will play and ball from day 1.

We don’t have many in this 2025 class…yet.

Program should build an AI talent analytics tool to munch on film and spit out recommendations. They can slide into my DMs.

 

[cway313]

You're not the most positive fellow, are you?

Still GO CANES my dude

I tend not to celebrate mediocrity. Tough standard to uphold I get. Go Canes!

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Me or these keep getting worse?

Do you really expect Mario to share everything under the sun?

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

I agree with what you are saying but comparing Mario to the greatest college football coach of all time isn't fair either.

Also fair, but you can throw Kirby and Sark in there too for now. Just the level you have to be at if we want to be competing for natty’s.

How much of this is a failure to develop rather than a failure to evaluate?

The problem with this, like so many elements of football, is the sheer variance in the data that can occur. It's hard to draw sweeping conclusions that the problem is this or that.

A good coach here might not be successful there. Same with a recruit.

Mario probably isn't greatest of all-time good. I agree there.

The question is what's your threshold? If it's greatest of all-time good, it probably isn't ever getting met. If it's top-10 of FCS, maybe it is getting met.

You'd have to run the analysis, account for confounding variables, normalize where you can, control where you can, and then see where you land.

Something as simple as an injury to the player robbing half a step can be the difference for them. A position coach that teaches it so it clicks for a player could leave before that click moment occurs.

Greg Rousseau gained the weight and Cyrus Moss couldn't. Moss was probably a bad eval, but one could argue he's sound process and just fell victim to the same variance that befalls so many top MLB prospects.

This isn't linear. You get one this year, you might just miss one next year. The result is less important to me then the process. From what I'm told, Miami's process continues to evolve and improve YoY.

I typed all that and forgot to mention develop.

Totally correct. If anything, it should be more development (although in my explanation, hopefully y’all can deduce that’s what I was alluding to when talking about giving guys a chance to properly grow and mature in a collegiate setting).

Development is absolutely what I should have initially mentioned, not strictly evaluations.

 

[JG13]

My 7 iron ******* sucks

I've got a Ping Zing 2 that was always my go to when I played. You can have it, I don't play anymore. It's kinda heavy though.

 

[OldhamA]

That's not a fair portrayal to put on Samson. He was injured in year 1 of a developmental year. The kids upside is monumental. Now do we know if he'll reach his potential. No of course not. But he's in year #1 essentially coming out of playing high school competition and receiving coaching that didn't help him previously to transition into this level. Give the kid some time before he's wrote off brother.

You know how it goes, if they're not All-ACC by their Sophmore year they're a JAG. Everyone absolutely develops at the same rate and there's zero examples of players emerging as upperclassmen.

 

[cway313]

Do you really expect Mario to share everything under the sun?

Does that make it sound better?