The Bank (10/24)

[Paparazzi Tripp]

We should not have to rely on the portal in year 4 to wholesale restock position groups. We are not FSU. The DT, WR, and DB (especially) recruiting is very concerning. No reason the best recruiter in the country with Miami’s NIL support shouldn’t be able to sign a top 5 player in each of those position groups every year.

Another year of questioning Mario in recruiting... LOL

In previous years it was in game coaching! The man has upgraded the talent each year. Now we're 7-0 with a better roster and yet here we are!!! SMH

 

[Calinative]

Very well said Lance.

The major difference is that Saban was a beast at both recruiting and evaluating. He nailed so many evaluations. That plus being a defensive guru, putting his guys in a position to constantly succeed = longevity and success. He didn’t find just good players. His hits, are NFL 1st rounders. His eye for talent was absurd, and when he wanted someone, he rarely lost that battle.

Mario has not. Not at Oregon, not at Miami (yet). Recruiting, absolutely killing it. Evals…short answer is no. Just not quite there. Not enough dudes that you look at and say “oh this guy can change college football”.

We can go through the list at the end of the season because I want to give younger guys like Malik Bryant a full chance to show off his game (and he’s an example of someone that’s improved since he got to campus, thank you for the position change).

But if you really start going through the list, the emergence (or lack thereof) of young bodies has not related to the stars and portal guys brought in…for every 1-2 hits, there’s 5-6 misses. For every Bain and Mauigoa (which might be the only two at this point), there’s 10+ that can’t quite hack it yet despite being ranked highly. And like you said, it needs to be closer to 50%.

Now I totally get kids need time to develop. I’m not pushing them out the door, I’m not saying Mario is a bad recruiter. That is not true.

Personally, I do think adding more analysts should help with evals. Guys like Frank Tucker etc. I’m just alluding to what we have in front of us right now, particularly guys that should be ready to contribute on the defensive side of the ball, but aren’t. We need more instant-impact, bonafide studs that will play and ball from day 1.

We don’t have many in this 2025 class…yet.

Undefeated, and have possibly the best offense in school history… we have a bad coach at evaluating talent…. Smh you mopes just can’t quit

 

[grover]

That's not a fair portrayal to put on Samson. He was injured in year 1 of a developmental year. The kids upside is monumental. Now do we know if he'll reach his potential. No of course not. But he's in year #1 essentially coming out of playing high school competition and receiving coaching that didn't help him previously to transition into this level. Give the kid some time before he's wrote off brother.

@Brooklyndee totally fair. TBH, I have been influenced by snippets of him looking frustrated and distant.

With Cici, Bell, McCormick back, I just got the sense he’s checked out and biding time until he hits the portal. But I only see a tiny fraction of what’s going on with him so it could be entirely my false perception. Really hope I’m misreading the situation.

 

[PSU Cane]

Sure, if we want to just make **** up

Among ACC schools:
- 7th in Points allowed
- 5th in Passing yards/game
- 2nd in Rush yards/game
- 1st in Total yards/game allowed
- 5th in Avg Yards/Play
- 2nd in 1st downs given up
- 3rd in INTs, 2nd to last in Fumble recoveries (bad)
- 3rd to last in 1st downs given up by Penalties (so bad).

That data is skewed by including the games against Ball State, FAMU and USF.

In ACC conference play, Miami is:
- 14 out of 17 in yards per play (6.48).
- 14 out of 17 in rush yards per attempt (4.94).
- 12 out of 17 in total yard per game (404).
- 12 out of 17 in pass yards allowed per game (275.7).
- 12 out of 17 in yards per pass attempt (7.6).
- 11 out of 17 in QB Rating allowed (142.08).

 

[Mansa Musa]

Still undefeated. The most important stat.

 

[macrock]

I know he wasn't a recruiter, but didn't the db's play better under Rumph than under Addae or Jackson?

 

[Golsen82]

And letting ol dude transfer to V-Tech was dumb AF. He’s a beast

OL? Or you mean Kaleb Spencer

 

[Calinative]

That data is skewed by including the games against Ball State, FAMU and USF.

In ACC conference play, Miami is:
- 14 out of 17 in yards per play (6.48).
- 14 out of 17 in rush yards per attempt (4.94).
- 12 out of 17 in total yard per game (404).
- 12 out of 17 in pass yards allowed per game (275.7).
- 12 out of 17 in yards per pass attempt (7.6).
- 11 out of 17 in QB Rating allowed (142.08).

And UF lol. Guess other ACC Teams didn't have 4 out of conference games as well, huh? Could say only using 3 games as your entire sample is what is skewing the data...

 

[jrock2332]

I hate mofoer that are negative. Be a photon buddy. Be positive. We will have top 10 class re f'an lax. Sheesh. We are about to destroy FSU and Florida in the same year. Have the best offense we ever had. We are undefeated. **** we are in a lot of sense exceeding expectations.

 

[Odin]

I hate mofoer that are negative. Be a photon buddy. Be positive. We will have top 10 class re f'an lax. Sheesh. We are about to destroy FSU and Florida in the same year. Have the best offense we ever had. We are undefeated. **** we are in a lot of sense exceeding expectations.

We just had the 7th and 4th classes back to back coming off 5-7 and 7-6 ****** seasons,a top 10 class with the way the season is going is not what most expected/hoped for.

 

[grover]

We just had the 7th and 4th classes back to back coming off 5-7 and 7-6 ****** seasons,a top 10 class with the way the season is going is not what most expected/hoped for.

Question for you. How many teams have had back to back to back Top 10 classes in the past decade?

 

[Odin]

Question for you. How many teams have had back to back to back Top 10 classes in the past decade?

I would need to look but would assume the usual suspects.BamaGeorgia,OSU,LSU,Texas,Tam,Oregon and maybe Tenn and USC.

 

[cway313]

Still undefeated. The ONLY important stat.

 

[grover]

You got the usual suspects correct, except Oregon. Like Miami, they will only get to three in a row this class (2023-2025).

GA, AL, Taint, UTX, LSU, OKU, AUB (2015 to 2017), USC (2015 to 2018). TAMU, CLEM, FSU (2015 to 2017) ... It's a very small group dominated by BCS playoff teams. GA and AL did it every year, TOSU 9 out of 10., LSU and UTX 8 out of 10. Meanwhile, we have been totally irrelevant for 20 years up until right now, not counting the early part of the season during one Richt year and one Golden year.

I just think we need to be a little more patient and realistic. GA, AL, Taint and lately TX are almost always in the Top 5 or 6. There isn't much room to make the Top 5 until we actually win something. The flywheel is in motion, and it's inevitable we'll get there.

 

[KingB02]

OL? Or you mean Kaleb Spencer

Yeah that’s his name

 

[jrock2332]

We just had the 7th and 4th classes back to back coming off 5-7 and 7-6 ****** seasons,a top 10 class with the way the season is going is not what most expected/hoped for.

Is it December yet? I don't know what they do now without a letter of intent. But have the agreements with recruits been finalized? No it's a long way until December and given Mario's history we will be fine. Why do human being have to be so nitpicky and crave negativity.

 

[Brooklyndee]

Still undefeated. The most important stat.

Clearly that's just not enough...

 

[Bender]

I think what Lance said, in regards to data already covers this. There's big enough factors in the NFL for many players to become busts and these reasons already translate towards the transition from High School to College at a higher level. But there's many reasons why players don't work out and the eval is on end of that list.

On the player side, the mental side of the game is absolutely key and in my eyes gets overlooked at lot in these conversations. And I'm not talking about whether a player gets a scheme, I'm talking about his willingness and his desire to work and study and do all the things to be well prepared to play. The NFL prevents busts by having prospects talking to psychologists and taking tests and having background checks and all that stuff. I don't think any college team does that to that extent. We'll talk to coaches and opponents and players and evaluate some interviews, but in recruiting, you're trying to convince a player to come here. In the NFL, it's almost the other way around.

Then, there's an injury factor. We can all agree players like Citizen absolutely work out on the college level and become elite players. But then, they have a catastrophic injury and it's done from that point. Or, they have nagging injuries because their body can't handle the level of impact that is required. Or, they simply cannot push beyond what they already have. Physical potential is really weird, some achieve it early, some later and almost everyone achieves it in a slightly different manner. I don't think anyone considers Shemar Stewart to be the same athletic freak that he used to be.

And, ultimately, stuff like coaching stability matters. We have had coaching turnover from the first to the second to the third year. Imagine having two or three different bosses in that timeframe that you work for. Kinda hard to establish a standard, to establish consistency in working together, to establish chemistry and connection. It's easy to pick Miami on the OL. Not so easy in terms of DBs.

Are we at the standard that you should be expecting from a Top 10-program? Nope. Will this improve? Most likely. Our O-Line couldn't block, our receivers couldn't get open or catch a cold two years ago - look what happened since. It's possible. There's young talent defensively that we have that hasn't played yet - maybe their time will come soon. Nobody expected OJ to be as good as he is this early. Sometimes the light comes on early and sometimes, it takes time.

 

[birdicane9177]

We need to step it up for the type of season we are having.. Everyone else in top 5 is doing well.

you worrying about this in october! smh

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

How much of this is a failure to develop rather than a failure to evaluate?

The problem with this, like so many elements of football, is the sheer variance in the data that can occur. It's hard to draw sweeping conclusions that the problem is this or that.

A good coach here might not be successful there. Same with a recruit.

Mario probably isn't greatest of all-time good. I agree there.

The question is what's your threshold? If it's greatest of all-time good, it probably isn't ever getting met. If it's top-10 of FCS, maybe it is getting met.

You'd have to run the analysis, account for confounding variables, normalize where you can, control where you can, and then see where you land.

Something as simple as an injury to the player robbing half a step can be the difference for them. A position coach that teaches it so it clicks for a player could leave before that click moment occurs.

Greg Rousseau gained the weight and Cyrus Moss couldn't. Moss was probably a bad eval, but one could argue he's sound process and just fell victim to the same variance that befalls so many top MLB prospects.

This isn't linear. You get one this year, you might just miss one next year. The result is less important to me then the process. From what I'm told, Miami's process continues to evolve and improve YoY.

Made more difficult by the fact a big part of evaluation is projecting how a player will develop. So I'd expect "evaluation" and "development" to be highly correlated.