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- Apr 28, 2014
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Idk man I disagree regarding Texas/A&M. Imo we very much want Texas to win that game. We also REALLY want Notre Dame to lose to USC.We are not definitively in if we beat Cuse and lose to SMU, but it certainly got a lot easier.
Never underestimate the committee’s biases. Root for A&M to beat Texas next weekend. Then it’ll look good provided we beat Cuse and lose a tight one to SMU (we should win that game). And root for USC over ND.
Texas would be 10-2 with their best wins coming against Michigan and Vandy. That’s a resume that doesn’t hold as much weight.
The biggest winners today were Indiana and Tennessee, then the ACC as an honorable mention.
First it's obvious Big10 is almost certainly getting 4 teams: getting Oregon, Ohio St, PSU, and Indiana (as long as Indiana doesn't lose to Purdue). I mean its possible Indiana could be on outside looking in, but probably unlikely as they were just ranked 5th and will finish with only 1 loss. B12 is getting 1 team, Boise St is in with a win, and Notre Dame is in with a win against USC. That's 7 teams. 5 spots left.... Hopefully ND loses.
UGA clinched being in SEC championship which imo means they are in the CFP guaranteed. Winner of Texas vs Texas A&M is in SEC Championship. If Texas loses that game they will be 10-2. That imo is probably still in the CFP given they are currently ranked 3rd - the top ranked team in the SEC. A loss vs A&M will likely not drop them outside top 12 given they had just ranked Bama ahead of us with one more loss... To me Texas is already in the CFP. Do you think we have any shot at ranking above a 2 loss Texas if we also have 2 losses? I doubt it
So that means the question is if A&M makes the cfp... Which do we really think a team making the SEC Championship game is going to miss the CFP? I don't. So thats why we want A&M to lose cause it would make them 8-4 and fully eliminated them. That would guarantee Texas and UGA in CFP. UTenn is basically already guaranteed too. So thats 3 teams already for the SEC.
Coming in to this week LSU was unranked so imo is out, Missouri was 23rd and isn't rising high enough so are out. Bama and Ole Miss just lost and are both now going to finish 9-3. Imo that puts them on the outside looking in right now. Ole Miss is actually probably eliminated with that. South Carolina is interesting because they are 18th and play Clemson... The winner of this game is definitely possible to make the CFP, but probably takes ND losing.
In this situation I think Miami is in if we beat Syracuse if it were a close loss to SMU. I think we'd rank ahead of Bama given this loss is occuring in Championship game week which committee already has said they don't want to punish teams too much for. If SMU loses in ACC Champ game they are probably eliminated, and then Clemson is probably in with a win....