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90scane said:
What is driving the 10yr higher? The thought that the U.S. treasury is going to have to keeping paying higher rates to fund the government.
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That plus the concerns that inflation is not yet conquered and that the Fed is prioritizing employment over inflation for political purposes. LT rates actually went up when the 50 bp's was announced.
 
SpikeUM said:
That plus the concerns that inflation is not yet conquered and that the Fed is prioritizing employment over inflation for political purposes. LT rates actually went up when the 50 bp's was announced.
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To get lower 5&10yr we need dropped inflation and rates. Even if Fed drops rates by 1 by year end, don’t think the treasury spending and inflation keep the 5/10 higher?
 
90scane said:
To get lower 5&10yr we need dropped inflation and rates. Even if Fed drops rates by 1 by year end, don’t think the treasury spending and inflation keep the 5/10 higher?
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Not 100% sure of the question, but for longer dated bonds to come in, there will need to be more assurance that growth is not too fast and inflation is tamed.
 
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U.S. Treasury yields advanced on Thursday as investors looked to the latest labor market insights and considered the state of the economy.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose almost 7 basis points to 3.852%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.707% after also climbing by around 7 basis points.

***Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point equals 0.01%.
Yields go up, bonds fall.

If you were asking why bond prices fell, then the answer is a strong economy which could be inflationary.
@90scane
 
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mr.h said:
U.S. Treasury yields advanced on Thursday as investors looked to the latest labor market insights and considered the state of the economy.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose almost 7 basis points to 3.852%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.707% after also climbing by around 7 basis points.

***Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point equals 0.01%.
Yields go up, bonds fall.

If you were asking why bond prices fell, then the answer is a strong economy which could be inflationary.
@90scane
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Are you an AI chat bot?
 
SpikeUM said:
Not 100% sure of the question, but for longer dated bonds to come in, there will need to be more assurance that growth is not too fast and inflation is tamed.
Click to expand...
To get lower 5&10yr it looks like we need lower rates and inflations. Even if Fed drops rates by 1 by year end, do you think the treasury spending and inflation keep the 5/10 higher? Typing on a phone. Pardon the typos.
 
90scane said:
To get lower 5&10yr it looks like we need lower rates and inflations. Even if Fed drops rates by 1 by year end, do you think the treasury spending and inflation keep the 5/10 higher? Typing on a phone. Pardon the typos.
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Based on what happened with the 50 bp's cut and today's report, my sense is rates will go up if the Fed keeps cutting, especially if its more than 25 bps.
 
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mr.h said:
I think it was charts.com…
I didn’t know if you were asking about bonds yields or bond prices..
Either way I’m sticking with my optimism answer…
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I was asking what would drive the 5&10 lower. Those drive mortgage rates along with the debt rates for the U.S. government.
 
90scane said:
I was asking what would drive the 5&10 lower. Those drive mortgage rates along with the debt rates for the U.S. government.
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Money goes out of bonds when the economy is strong and into equities…
Mortgage rates will drop..
That is good..right?
 
I think you are grossly over simplifying this.

In the next 6-12 months, equities could remain hot, Fed funds cut, inflation levels at 2% or increases, unemployment increases…yet the treasury will be selling trillions which means less demand for them and they will need to be priced higher.
 
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90scane said:
I think you are grossly over simplifying this.

In the next 6-12 months, equities could remain hot, Fed funds cut, inflation levels at 2% or increases, unemployment increases…yet the treasury will be selling trillions which means less demand for them and they will need to be priced higher.
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OK, BUT the Fed is winning the fight against inflation, the economy is strong, and if employment is strong…that’s a win. Yes, investors will sell bonds and get more into stocks. We cannot have it both ways, but the economy will cycle..right now I’m optimistic, especially in regards to the stock market.
 
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CPI tomorrow…with oil down last month, I believe we see a win…
Inflation will be down, imo
 
08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,861K 1,830K 1,819K
08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
08:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%
08:30 USD Core CPI Index (Sep) 319.77
08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
08:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.4% 2.3% 2.5%
08:30 USD CPI Index, n.s.a. (Sep) 315.30 314.86 314.80
08:30 USD CPI Index, s.a (Sep) 314.12
08:30 USD CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Sep) 0.08%
08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 258K 231K 225K

Core CPI MoM same as last month
Core CPI YoY up .01, but less than last month
CPI Index- less than last month, but higher than expected
Ex. Food and energy- MoM- higher than expected, but less than last month
Ex. Food and energy-YoY- up .1
Initial jobless claims sept.- up
Except from jobless claims, inflation stayed about the same for Sept.
Not as good as I thought, but not bad…imo
 
mr.h said:
OK, BUT the Fed is winning the fight against inflation, the economy is strong, and if employment is strong…that’s a win. Yes, investors will sell bonds and get more into stocks. We cannot have it both ways, but the economy will cycle..right now I’m optimistic, especially in regards to the stock market.
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The Treasury market does not agree with your statement.
 
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