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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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@TheEye
From Forbes:
“From here, the Fed has hinted that interest rates are likely to fall. That could lower the recession signal, to the extent the yield curve becomes less inverted. However, there is still some way to go until then and the yield curve’s call for a recession remains in place.

There is still time for negative economic data to come in that could potentially cause a recession in 2024, as the yield curve predicts. Yet, so far, the economic news implies accelerating growth over recent months, rather than a recession”.
 
08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
08:30 USD Core CPI Index (Aug) 318.87
08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.5% 2.5% 2.9%

CPI YoY down to 2.5% from 2.9% last month
CPI MoM .02%
CPI YoY ex food and energy 3.2%
CPI MoM ex food and Energy .3% up
It seems that food and energy dropped in August
 
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mr.h said:
08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
08:30 USD Core CPI Index (Aug) 318.87
08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.5% 2.5% 2.9%

CPI YoY down to 2.5% from 2.9% last month
CPI MoM .02%
CPI YoY ex food and energy 3.2%
CPI MoM ex food and Energy .3% up
It seems that food and energy dropped in August
Click to expand...

Energy has dropped quite a bit because of China and fears of a US recession. (Some indicators suggest we are already in a recession.)
 
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Cmuri said:
Take your licks now while you can. Let’s agree to check the price in January.
Click to expand...

Perma bear and tech executive- I’m going to say it tanks in time. User acquisition is low, user stats are tiny, revenue is crazy small, owner is close to 80,…

That is before I even look at the technology.

Is it possible they last 10-20 years and come out the other side with real revenue and users- yes. Is it probable- no. What I could see- DJT gets purchased by X.

Technology tends to get evaluated on few things: upside growth potential, actual technology that other companies don’t have, actual market share. DJT has one- upside but that story will only work for so long before investors demand returns.
 
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90scane said:
Perma bear and tech executive- I’m going to say it tanks in time. User acquisition is low, user stats are tiny, revenue is crazy small, owner is close to 80,…

That is before I even look at the technology.

Is it possible they last 10-20 years and come out the other side with real revenue and users- yes. Is it probable- no. What I could see- DJT gets purchased by X.

Technology tends to get evaluated on few things: upside growth potential, actual technology that other companies don’t have, actual market share. DJT has one- upside but that story will only work for so long before investors demand returns.
Click to expand...
Cool. Let’s see where we are in January after gensler is fired.
For now, im adding to my allocation.
 
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mr.h said:
Eventually they will be right…

PPI tomorrow will be like CPI today.
Down from last month, but up excluding food and energy….
Click to expand...

Spike asked me about my outlook in the last couple of pages and I gave him a path forward that could be stocks not falling.


90scane said:
Stocks- they may drop due to unemployment BUT it is tough to see it tanking if the money supply keeps growing. Millions of people can refi cash out to Drive more consumer spending now that they have massive equity in their houses. They just need to be employed and rates have to drop enough. Of course there are a number of other factors: geopolitical, global economies, election, commercial real estate, more corporate failures…
Click to expand...
 
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Next month I list a rental unit at a 6.5% REDUCTION from the price I got in 2022. Rents are coming down.
 
90scane said:
Spike asked me about my outlook in the last couple of pages and I gave him a path forward that could be stocks not falling.
Click to expand...
I believe we get a 25bp interest rate cut….
This is the Goldilocks scenario. Too large of a rate cut will spook the market into believing that the economy is weakening too fast.
 
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