forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

If the Fed eases monetary policy at its next meeting on Sept. 18 as expected, it will officially mark the termination of the most aggressive inflation-fighting campaign since the 1980s. Its benchmark rate is currently at 5.25% to 5.5%, a 23-year high.…..

Friday reports non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates

10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul) 5.0% 4.7% -3.3%
10:00 USD Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Jul) 0.4% -0.2% 0.1%
10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) 7.673M 8.090M 7.910M
Factory orders up big
Jolt job openings down
 
Advertisement
08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) 99K 144K 111K
08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,838K 1,870K 1,860K
08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 227K 231K 232K
08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 230.00K 229.00K 231.75K
08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 2.5% 2.3% 0.2%
08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 0.4% 0.9% 4.0%

Employment #’s down
Non farm production up
Initial jobless claims down

Service sector and manufacturing #’s coming..
 
09:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 54.6 54.1 54.3
09:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 55.7 55.2 55.0
10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Aug) 53.3 54.5
10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug) 50.2 50.5 51.1
10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Aug) 53.0 51.9 52.4
10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.5 51.3 51.4
10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug) 57.3 56.0 57.0

Service sectors very strong..any number in the 50’s shows economic expansion
Employment number tomorrow
Is the Fed more worried about inflation or recession??????
 
Shares of Apple (AAPL) jumped 7.5% from June 30, the end of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKB) most recent trade disclosure window.
Buffet lost billions selling when he did.
 
Advertisement
Cmuri said:
We bullish tomorrow or is it a lose lose situation? What are you guys predicting?
Click to expand...
I’m almost a perma bear. Haven’t owned stocks in four years. I’ll get back in at some point but I’m just making too much outside of the market.
 
90scane said:
I’m almost a perma bear. Haven’t owned stocks in four years. I’ll get back in at some point but I’m just making too much outside of the market.
Click to expand...
I’m thinking the media is pushing a lose-lose situation so we may open red and hopefully a bounce.
 
Cmuri said:
I’m thinking the media is pushing a lose-lose situation so we may open red and hopefully a bounce.
Click to expand...
Media don’t have as much influence as the jobs report. After all the revisions, if it misses bad the market will assume it will get revised to even worse. Only hope- it beats estimates by a lot.
 
Advertisement
Cmuri said:
We bullish tomorrow or is it a lose lose situation? What are you guys predicting?
Click to expand...
I’m hoping for jobs over 150,000
The lower the jobs number, the higher the Feds cut interest rates…

As far as Buffet selling AAPL, I’m thinking the stock goes up with the introduction of iPhone 16 with more AI features coming soon…jmo
 
08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Aug) 3.8% 3.7% 3.6%
08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Aug) 34.3 34.3 34.2
08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Aug) 24.0K 15.0K
08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Aug) -24K 0K 6K
08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) 142K 164K 89K
08:30 USD Participation Rate (Aug) 62.7% 62.7%
08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) 118K 139K 74K
08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Aug) 7.9% 7.8%
08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.2% 4.2% 4.3%

Payrolls Aug.142,000.
Unemployment rate Aug. dropped to 4.2%
Labor force participation rate even
Hourly earnings up
Fed will be cautious and we’ll see a 25bp cut, imo!!!
 
Last edited:
mr.h said:
I’m hoping for jobs over 150,000
The lower the jobs number, the higher the Feds cut interest rates…

As far as Buffet selling AAPL, I’m thinking the stock goes up with the introduction of iPhone 16 with more AI features coming soon…jmo
Click to expand...

iPhone sales could slip due to economic conditions. Unless the ai features are mind blowing and saving people lots of time/money, I don’t see people upgrading. Plus, apple normally releases the iOS updates to all devices with older ones just being slower. In the case of Ai, I could see most of that being cloud based thus limited impact on older phone performance.

If the Fed cuts big, I would expect a BIG sell off as the market is expecting .25 so anything more would be an indicator to the market that things are really bad.
 
Advertisement
90scane said:
iPhone sales could slip due to economic conditions. Unless the ai features are mind blowing and saving people lots of time/money, I don’t see people upgrading. Plus, apple normally releases the iOS updates to all devices with older ones just being slower. In the case of Ai, I could see most of that being cloud based thus limited impact on older phone performance.

If the Fed cuts big, I would expect a BIG sell off as the market is expecting .25 so anything more would be an indicator to the market that things are really bad.
Click to expand...
The Fed has been very conservative up to now and the economy is still strong despite slowing payroll numbers. Augusts numbers are not bad unless they are revised down. We are definitely slowing down from the wild growth numbers we were seeing, which is normal.
 
mr.h said:
The Fed has been very conservative up to now and the economy is still strong despite slowing payroll numbers. Augusts numbers are not bad UNTIL they are revised down. We are definitely slowing down from the wild growth numbers we were seeing, which is normal.
Click to expand...

I corrected that for you. They have revised almost every month downward. If this was a stock, someone would be investigated for pump & dump.

FED has two mandates: control inflation and full employment. They haven't gotten to 2% but could head there with unemployment rising. Sure, they very well could be too late causing a recession. I'm shocked more banks haven't failed BUT now the 10 yr is under 4 which means fewer defaults on commercial buildings.
 
90scane said:
I corrected that for you. They have revised almost every month downward. If this was a stock, someone would be investigated for pump & dump.

FED has two mandates: control inflation and full employment. They haven't gotten to 2% but could head there with unemployment rising. Sure, they very well could be too late causing a recession. I'm shocked more banks haven't failed BUT now the 10 yr is under 4 which means fewer defaults on commercial buildings.
Click to expand...
Pre-pandemic monthly job numbers averaged 178,000 in 2019 and the economy was slowing. Aug. 2019 was 164,000, but no wage growth. Job growth was weakening in 2019 as opposed to 2018. This is normal. The economy is still strong.
BTW both Presidential candidates are throwing out ideas that will increase the debt. [I added that tidbit for no charge]…lol
 
Advertisement
mr.h said:
Pre-pandemic monthly job numbers averaged 178,000 in 2019 and the economy was slowing. Aug. 2019 was 164,000, but no wage growth. Job growth was weakening in 2019 as opposed to 2018. This is normal. The economy is still strong.
BTW both Presidential candidates are throwing out ideas that will increase the debt. [I added that tidbit for no charge]…lol
Click to expand...

Remember- inflation continued higher even after rates started going up. I expect unemployment to keep going up and inflation to continue down even with rate cuts. The changes in rates take between 12 and 24 months before they impact the economy. Sure the market starts baking in the changes but the real economy isn't impacted for months. This is why, the market low tends to be 6 months after the FED's first cut.
 
90scane said:
Remember- inflation continued higher even after rates started going up. I expect unemployment to keep going up and inflation to continue down even with rate cuts. The changes in rates take between 12 and 24 months before they impact the economy. Sure the market starts baking in the changes but the real economy isn't impacted for months. This is why, the market low tends to be 6 months after the FED's first cut.
Click to expand...
We are still early in the rate cut decision. Data can change. Right now fear and uncertainty is hurting the stock market.
 
mr.h said:
We are still early in the rate cut decision. Data can change. Right now fear and uncertainty is hurting the stock market.
Click to expand...

time for more education:

You are assuming that humans are making the vast majority of buy/sell decisions thus allowing FEAR and UNCERTAINTY influence their decision. 80% of the market is controlled by institutional investors who are far more concerned about the numbers than the news. Thus, all of the revisions on jobs have a real impact on numbers. When removing emotion from decisions, economic numbers are pretty ugly. Profits for some public companies have overcome the negative economic influences which is why those companies have gone up. As an investor, you should always be looking for companies that are likely to grow in the coming years no matter the economy influences.
 
90scane said:
time for more education:

You are assuming that humans are making the vast majority of buy/sell decisions thus allowing FEAR and UNCERTAINTY influence their decision. 80% of the market is controlled by institutional investors who are far more concerned about the numbers than the news. Thus, all of the revisions on jobs have a real impact on numbers. When removing emotion from decisions, economic numbers are pretty ugly. Profits for some public companies have overcome the negative economic influences which is why those companies have gone up. As an investor, you should always be looking for companies that are likely to grow in the coming years no matter the economy influences.
Click to expand...
Institutional investors jump in and out, all the time. Computers buy and dump. Think LONG TERM. There are always negative economic influences and yet the stock market gives returns each year. You are completely out of the market, so I understand your pessimism…
 
Advertisement
Back
Top