Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Institutional investors jump in and out, all the time. Computers buy and dump. Think LONG TERM. There are always negative economic influences and yet the stock market gives returns each year. You are completely out of the market, so I understand your pessimism…

You missed the point. Most market decisions are not done with emotion but rather data driven. Thus, the news doesn’t matter.
 
Advertisement
Macro view: We have been way overbought for a long time, as @90scane and I have been warning. The recent economic news has been poor to dismal, and all of the data revisions have been to the downside. Remember how we suddenly lost a million new jobs created?

Yet YTD even after this week SMH is up 22.5%, S&P is still up 13.5% for the year, and the equal weighted S&P is up 8%. It doesnt take a genius to figure out that caution is warranted.
 
Macro view: We have been way overbought for a long time, as @90scane and I have been warning. The recent economic news has been poor to dismal, and all of the data revisions have been to the downside. Remember how we suddenly lost a million new jobs created?

Yet YTD even after this week SMH is up 22.5%, S&P is still up 13.5% for the year, and the equal weighted S&P is up 8%. It doesnt take a genius to figure out that caution is warranted.

Now if China and potentially other economies are tanking far worse, it could be a simple fact of the USA being the safe place to park money. Or we are just getting started on the downward path.
 
Advertisement
Now if China and potentially other economies are tanking far worse, it could be a simple fact of the USA being the safe place to park money. Or we are just getting started on the downward path.
All that stuff that contributed to hyper inflation in the US, was even worse overseas.
 
Now if China and potentially other economies are tanking far worse, it could be a simple fact of the USA being the safe place to park money. Or we are just getting started on the downward path.

But that would be more Treasuries than the stock market
 
But that would be more Treasuries than the stock market
Wouldn’t that prop up the currency giving our economy a lot more run way? International buyers of treasuries allows banks to back mortgages vs treasuries… we just keep off shoring our debt.
 
Wouldn’t that prop up the currency giving our economy a lot more run way? International buyers of treasuries allows banks to back mortgages vs treasuries… we just keep off shoring our debt.

It would lower rates and thus inflation, but hurt our exports.
 
Advertisement
So yall think the CIA are the creators of Bitcoin now that it is known Satoshi Nakamodo literally means Intelligence Central? lol…
 
So yall think the CIA are the creators of Bitcoin now that it is known Satoshi Nakamodo literally means Intelligence Central? lol…

I doubt it was the CIA that created Bitcoin. Ironically- Bitcoin uses blockchain which is an intelligent means of decentralized ledger storage.

This has been in discussion since 2009.
 
It would lower rates and thus inflation, but hurt our exports.

If it lowers rates, wouldn't that cause inflation due to the bank loans creating money as more people would get loans?

Understand that it hurts our exports.
 
If it lowers rates, wouldn't that cause inflation due to the bank loans creating money as more people would get loans?

Understand that it hurts our exports.

What will happen in Q4 once the Fed lowers in September?
 
Advertisement
What will happen in Q4 once the Fed lowers in September?

Momentum is tough to change. Residential RE likely continues to have a lack of supply but unemployment could increase supply just when demand returns after lowered rates.

Stocks- they may drop due to unemployment BUT it is tough to see it tanking if the money supply keeps growing. Millions of people can refi cash out to Drive more consumer spending now that they have massive equity in their houses. They just need to be employed and rates have to drop enough. Of course there are a number of other factors: geopolitical, global economies, election, commercial real estate, more corporate failures…
 
IMG_7788.jpeg
 
Advertisement
10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jul) 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Lower inventory means the economy is not slowing ….
 
Advertisement
Back
Top