Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[Tony4Canes]

Disclaimer: no clue who this guy is..

 

[TheEye]

Hard to predict the value of the second rate cut when you can’t see the results of the first. If we see high inflation a month from now, fed does no rate cuts. It’s really going to be a matter of inflation dipping under 2%. If we see sub 2%, then .5 is definitely on the table.

 

[SpikeUM]

so what you are really saying is that they are clueless

 

[mr.h]

Hard to predict the value of the second rate cut when you can’t see the results of the first. If we see high inflation a month from now, fed does no rate cuts. It’s really going to be a matter of inflation dipping under 2%. If we see sub 2%, then .5 is definitely on the table.

#1- reduce borrowing costs…

 

[JD08]

so what you are really saying is that they are clueless

Pretty much, but in all fairness, it's not as easy as it used to be to see the direction the economy will take.

 

[SpikeUM]

Pretty much, but in all fairness, it's not as easy as it used to be to see the direction the economy will take.

In all fairness, the reckless government spending has blurred the traditional macro economic assumptions.

 

[JD08]

In all fairness, the reckless government spending has blurred the traditional macro economic assumptions.

As has the skew of wealth towards the top.

 

[mr.h]

As has the skew of wealth towards the top.

Are you claiming that the rich are getting richer??? You far left commie.

 

[JD08]

Are you claiming that the rich are getting richer??? You far left commie.

Yes, but the the far left commie policies over the last 20 years are a big part of the reason why.

 

[Tony4Canes]

Wtf going on?

 

[Tony4Canes]

 

[Cmuri]

It’s gonna be a wild day. Yikes

 

[mr.h]

….emergency cuts now.
Don’t panic, because this is not a recession, worldwide or otherwise.
US economy is still strong. Pick your stocks wisely for buying opportunities.
PS…I don’t know if this was Fed induced, but Powell was way too slow on the draw.

 

[561caneforever]

….emergency cuts now.

IMO this would create even more panic.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Read this in early am today...

Top half I have no clue on...bottom part makes sense and fear is way overblown...

What say you finance bros??



"...Japan held its rates at or near 0% for 15 years. As such, investors began borrowing trillions of yen and investing them in stronger currencies and assets. Essentially, it was a bet that the Yen would continue to fall in comparative value. It worked well...until last Wednesday.

Japan's central bank finally hiked rates a bit, just to .25% which is still insanely low, but it spiked the value of the yen by 7.5% compared to the US$ and forced investors to cover their short positions to the tune of billions. Creating enormous losses
(Trillions?)

This was called the "yen carry trade." It appears to have ended this week. To cover those losses it requires liquidity and liquidity is achieved by selling off other performing assets. Hence, the global sell off.

I figured many of you would be wondering why your portfolios are getting hammered. This is why.

One other major bearish force which I think helped to set this off (I havent seen anyone else discuss this in detail):

Japan imports most of the oil it needs to function. They produce about 2 million barrels of oil per day but consume twice that or more. This means Japan imports a ton of oil.

Well, Iran is promising a major strike against Israel in response to the surprise Tehran strike last week. It is expected to happen this week (possibly today). When they do, all bets are off. Israel and the US could move on Iran and if they do I would expect Iran to immediately shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

Why does that matter?
20 million barrels of oil per day get funneled through this waterway.

Global price of oil skyrockets.
Japan gets cooked.

I could go on for hours but I'll end it there.

In short, let's hope cooler heads prevail and a wider war with Iran can be avoided. The global economy likely depends on it..."

 

[mr.h]

IMO this would create even more panic.

I believe it would show that the Fed realizes that they were behind the curve and is actually trying to do something. We still had over 100k jobs created in July, but it’s still a slowdown. The Fed fell asleep behind the wheel. I’ll wait for Fed speak and some assurances. There will be volatility.
The Mkt. didn’t react that dramatically when Iran attacked Israel the last time, but it is scaring people.

 

[90scane]

Wtf going on?

Lots of Yen carry Trades were used to buy risk assets.

 

[SpikeUM]

Wtf going on?

In all fairness, just about everything is down, except bonds. But to answer your question, what went up the most is going down the most.

 

[SpikeUM]

Lots of Yen carry Trades were used to buy risk assets.

"Cross Currency Swaps"

 

[SpikeUM]

Sorry, I disagree - its the Fed's responsibility to control inflation and support employment, it has nothing to do directly with the stock market. We are not even at a correction stage YET for the DOW and S&P