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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

mr.h said:
I believe it would show that the Fed realizes that they were behind the curve and is actually trying to do something. We still had over 100k jobs created in July, but it’s still a slowdown. The Fed fell asleep behind the wheel. I’ll wait for Fed speak and some assurances. There will be volatility.
The Mkt. didn’t react that dramatically when Iran attacked Israel the last time, but it is scaring people.
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Are you asking for more inflation?
 
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Empirical Cane said:
Read this in early am today...

Top half I have no clue on...bottom part makes sense and fear is way overblown...

What say you finance bros??



"...Japan held its rates at or near 0% for 15 years. As such, investors began borrowing trillions of yen and investing them in stronger currencies and assets. Essentially, it was a bet that the Yen would continue to fall in comparative value. It worked well...until last Wednesday.

Japan's central bank finally hiked rates a bit, just to .25% which is still insanely low, but it spiked the value of the yen by 7.5% compared to the US$ and forced investors to cover their short positions to the tune of billions. Creating enormous losses
(Trillions?)

This was called the "yen carry trade." It appears to have ended this week. To cover those losses it requires liquidity and liquidity is achieved by selling off other performing assets. Hence, the global sell off.

I figured many of you would be wondering why your portfolios are getting hammered. This is why.

One other major bearish force which I think helped to set this off (I havent seen anyone else discuss this in detail):

Japan imports most of the oil it needs to function. They produce about 2 million barrels of oil per day but consume twice that or more. This means Japan imports a ton of oil.

Well, Iran is promising a major strike against Israel in response to the surprise Tehran strike last week. It is expected to happen this week (possibly today). When they do, all bets are off. Israel and the US could move on Iran and if they do I would expect Iran to immediately shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

Why does that matter?
20 million barrels of oil per day get funneled through this waterway.

Global price of oil skyrockets.
Japan gets cooked.

I could go on for hours but I'll end it there.

In short, let's hope cooler heads prevail and a wider war with Iran can be avoided. The global economy likely depends on it..."
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This is pretty spot on (even oil and gold are down slightly today), but its also the final straw, we were in bubble territory, it was bound to correct sharply at some point.
 
SpikeUM said:
Sorry, I disagree - its the Fed's responsibility to control inflation and support employment, it has nothing to do directly with the stock market. We are not even at a correction stage YET for the DOW and S&P
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Are you a finance bro or hobbyist?

I'm a certified dart thrower...so I'm kinda a really big deal.
 
Empirical Cane said:
Are you a finance bro or hobbyist?

I'm a certified dart thrower...so I'm kinda a really big deal.
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@SpikeUM IRL

1722870982484.webp
 
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Cmuri said:
Futures up. Hoping for a relief rally.
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I believe it was just too much bad news:
Yen rate hike
Iran potentially joining war
Tech misses on profits
Unemployment miss
FED not cutting yet

I’m sure there are some good buys but news has to turn good and momentum is heading down. It isn’t a straight line down just like gains aren’t all at once.

I’m looking for the real estate numbers. Specifically, mortgage applications, refinance applications, listings, foreclosures, and are we going to see an increase in starts with the .25 drop on 10yr thus mortgages
 
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90scane said:
I believe it was just too much bad news:
Yen rate hike
Iran potentially joining war
Tech misses on profits
Unemployment miss
FED not cutting yet

I’m sure there are some good buys but news has to turn good and momentum is heading down. It isn’t a straight line down just like gains aren’t all at once.

I’m looking for the real estate numbers. Specifically, mortgage applications, refinance applications, listings, foreclosures, and are we going to see an increase in starts with the .25 drop on 10yr thus mortgages
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Yeah I’m just waiting for a good pop to get out my down payment for my closing next month. So I’m hoping 2 rate cuts in sept. Would be nice to get an emergency rate cut too. Lol
 
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So what happened with Jeremy Siegel, Ron Insana, and porsters here that were demanding an emergency rate cut?
 
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Next week are the big economic numbers…Tomorrow are jobless claims.
I’m hoping this calms the MKT’s.
 
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