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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

mr.h said:
Yes there may be misses, but Google beat and still dropped. After big gains in tech, it’s healthy to have a pullback. These big tech companies are going through the roof in the next 5 years because of AI and cloud..
I believe rate cuts are needed NOW.
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Agree with you except for the rate cuts.
 
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Core personal consumption stays the same at 2.6%-2.5% expected
Personal income for June down
Personal spending for June down
 
08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 2.6% 2.5% 2.6%
08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
08:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
08:30 USD PCE Price index (YoY) (Jun) 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.4%
 
mr.h said:
Core personal consumption stays the same at 2.6%-2.5% expected
Personal income for June down
Personal spending for June down
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If that report about jobs paying ~8% less is true, then we can expect personal income to continue to drop as people change jobs.
 
JD08 said:
If that report about jobs paying ~8% less is true, then we can expect personal income to continue to drop as people change jobs.
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Then we should see rates cut in September..
inflation staying calm.
 
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mr.h said:
Then we should see rates cut in September..
inflation staying calm.
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Also depends on the government. Along as the well-off continue spending, the shrinking middle class suffers.
 
Summer inflation was expected to drop. I’ve heard 0 to .75 are on the table. 0 if inflation bounces back to .75 if inflation tanks along with high unemployment. The longer they hold the more likely we see a recession imo.
 
90scane said:
Summer inflation was expected to drop. I’ve heard 0 to .75 are on the table. 0 if inflation bounces back to .75 if inflation tanks along with high unemployment. The longer they hold the more likely we see a recession imo.
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Any true recession is going to be met by massive rate cuts. Not just the occasional quarter point.
 
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Major earnings and Fed Speak this week.

Hold Tight
Meme Success GIF by MOODMAN
 
TheEye said:
Any true recession is going to be met by massive rate cuts. Not just the occasional quarter point.
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The rate cuts are using a 6-12 month leading indicator for the bottom of the market. They can do massive cuts but the damage is done, IMO. A recession will happen and a new cycle will begin. The rate cuts will lead to a new round of inflation so don’t expect the cuts to last. I’m not even sure that will get to 0.
 
90scane said:
The rate cuts are using a 6-12 month leading indicator for the bottom of the market. They can do massive cuts but the damage is done, IMO. A recession will happen and a new cycle will begin. The rate cuts will lead to a new round of inflation so don’t expect the cuts to last. I’m not even sure that will get to 0.
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Been hearing this for years now.
 
TheEye said:
Been hearing this for years now.
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you very well could be right…Fed cuts and we don’t see a recession. I provided a chart on the board(not sure the thread) that shows how we have reduced the months in recession.

Even if we don’t see a recession, we are likely heading into stagflation.
 
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90scane said:
you very well could be right…Fed cuts and we don’t see a recession. I provided a chart on the board(not sure the thread) that shows how we have reduced the months in recession.

Even if we don’t see a recession, we are likely heading into stagflation.
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That's a bigger problem than either recession or inflation, especially with MMT still being considered a valid theory.
 
Gotta get the majority of my money out of the market in the next 2 months for closing of a house (end of month sept). Anyone with stocks and not indices have a particular exit plan? We had a terrible fall last week so have been taking just a few shares out each day. But definitely haven’t taken out chunks at a time.
Where do you guys think the market is headed? I’m guessing we’re gonna get more clarity this week or at least a pump soon.
Im sitting on about 27% profit currently(not including the taxes imma have to pay-32% on short term trades). Get out immediately, or slowly get out?

Plan to sell everything but my DJT, Rumble and Tesla.
 
Cmuri said:
Gotta get the majority of my money out of the market in the next 2 months for closing of a house (end of month sept). Anyone with stocks and not indices have a particular exit plan? We had a terrible fall last week so have been taking just a few shares out each day. But definitely haven’t taken out chunks at a time.
Where do you guys think the market is headed? I’m guessing we’re gonna get more clarity this week or at least a pump soon.
Im sitting on about 27% profit currently(not including the taxes imma have to pay-32% on short term trades). Get out immediately, or slowly get out?

Plan to sell everything but my DJT, Rumble and Tesla.
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Are you selling for a downpayment or are you 100% cash? If you ask me, the doom and gloomers have been wrong for longterm investors. I like using a mortgage and making advance payments while my investments are going up. Then when the market dips I recast the loan to lower the monthly payments during the hard times.
 
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TheEye said:
Are you selling for a downpayment or are you 100% cash? If you ask me, the doom and gloomers have been wrong for longterm investors. I like using a mortgage and making advance payments while my investments are going up. Then when the market dips I recast the loan to lower the monthly payments during the hard times.
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I would be selling for the down payment. We are putting about 35-40% down. So gotta slowly get it out. So far I have taken out about $13k of the 430k I gotta get out. lol 1 share at a time is not working out lol
 
Cmuri said:
I would be selling for the down payment. We are putting about 35-40% down. So gotta slowly get it out. So far I have taken out about $13k of the 430k I gotta get out. lol 1 share at a time is not working out lol
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If you know what stocks you want to dump, sell the majority now and put into a 1 month high yield CD or bond. That way you have the money and aren’t forced to sell during a potential sell off. The market could also spike between now and then but you would be making interest from the bond.
 
If you have $800-1m in the market, you should look at a Pledged Asset line. Borrow the $430k from yourself then sell after more gains and better tax treatment. I believe this has two tax benefits: assets are sold after 365 thus reducing taxes and the interest maybe a tax deduction.
 
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9:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (May) 1.0% 1.4%
09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (May) 6.8% 6.5% 7.3%
10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 100.3 99.7 97.8
10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) 8.184M 8.020M 8.230M
Consumer confidence up
Jolt jobs up
S&P home prices up
 
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