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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

8:30 AMUSDContinuing Jobless Claims(Jun 14) 1.839M1.741.82M1.821M
8:30 AMUSDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q1) 3.7% 0.673.6% 3.6%
8:30 AMUSDDurable Goods Orders(May) 0.1% 0.11-0.1% 0.6%
8:30 AMUSDDurable Goods Orders ex Defense(May) -0.2% --0%
8:30 AMUSDDurable Goods Orders ex Transportation(May)
-0.1% -0.940.2% 0.4%
8:30 AMUSDGoods Trade Balance(May) PREL --$-96B$-99.2B
8:30 AMUSDGross Domestic Product Annualized(Q1) 1.4% 0.001.4% 1.3%
8:30 AMUSDGross Domestic Product Price Index(Q1) --3.1% 3.1%
8:30 AMUSDInitial Jobless Claims(Jun 21) 233K-0.40236K238K
8:30 AMUSDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Jun 21) 236K--233K
8:30 AMUSDNondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(May) -0.6% --0.2%
8:30 AMUSDPersonal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q1) 3.4% 0.983.3% 3.3%
8:30 AMUSDWholesale Inventories(May) PREL --0.1% 0.1%
GDP 1.4% vs 1.3%
Fractional movements
PCE Monthly and YOY tomorrow
 
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90scane said:
You have a ton of hopeium for AI. Near term: rates are a much bigger factor along with unemployment, bank failures, defaults, and inflation. Long term: AI will have positive and negative impacts to the economy and market.
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I am predicting rate cuts will follow all those negative factors you list. Looking into 2025 before those are a major factor.
 
TheEye said:
I am predicting rate cuts will follow all those negative factors you list. Looking into 2025 before those are a major factor.
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Hard to predict the timing. I've seen lots of wild predictions including the failure of the USD yet it is currently crushing almost every currency in the world.

i believe we are already in a recession or very close to one. If unemployment jumps much more, inflation will cool, real estate will cool, the stock market will cool, all leading to bank failures, and rate cuts plus QE. They have already slowed QT. The FED has cut 2T off their balance sheet over the last 2 years. Zero chance they run it to $0 especially with the U.S. government needing to sell treasuries.

I’m not sure we see the FED get to 0% again. I suspect we are heading into years of higher rates and those rates will keep going up. There may be one more run at 0% but the well is almost dry.
 
90scane said:
Hard to predict the timing. I've seen lots of wild predictions including the failure of the USD yet it is currently crushing almost every currency in the world.

i believe we are already in a recession or very close to one. If unemployment jumps much more, inflation will cool, real estate will cool, the stock market will cool, all leading to bank failures, and rate cuts plus QE. They have already slowed QT. The FED has cut 2T off their balance sheet over the last 2 years. Zero chance they run it to $0 especially with the U.S. government needing to sell treasuries.

I’m not sure we see the FED get to 0% again. I suspect we are heading into years of higher rates and those rates will keep going up. There may be one more run at 0% but the well is almost dry.
Click to expand...
None of us have clairvoyance, but if we are truly staring down the barrel of higher rates then I don’t see danger of high unemployment or foreclosures. There is so much cash on the side that cheap real estate in the form of foreclosures will be gobled up by banks and developers.
 
8:30 AMUSDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(May) 0.1% 0.000.1% 0.3%
8:30 AMUSDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(May) 2.6% 0.002.6% 2.8%
8:30 AMUSDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(May) 0% 0.000% 0.3%
8:30 AMUSDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(May) 2.6% 0.002.6% 2.7%
8:30 AMUSDPersonal Income (MoM)(May)
0.5% 0.400.4% 0.3%
8:30 AMUSDPersonal Spending(May) 0.2% -0.620.3% 0.2%
PCE down..inflation related
Income up
Personal spending down
Come on now…
 
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90scane said:
Hard to predict the timing. I've seen lots of wild predictions including the failure of the USD yet it is currently crushing almost every currency in the world.

i believe we are already in a recession or very close to one. If unemployment jumps much more, inflation will cool, real estate will cool, the stock market will cool, all leading to bank failures, and rate cuts plus QE. They have already slowed QT. The FED has cut 2T off their balance sheet over the last 2 years. Zero chance they run it to $0 especially with the U.S. government needing to sell treasuries.

I’m not sure we see the FED get to 0% again. I suspect we are heading into years of higher rates and those rates will keep going up. There may be one more run at 0% but the well is almost dry.
Click to expand...

I owe you a call. BTW, chatted with an inhouse economist for one of the major providers, interesting conversation. Thinks the current probability of a Trump win will stoke a rally (more pro business, less red tape, less taxes, etc) but is also concerned about a severe correction at any time. Overbought market, Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, elections in Europe, political instability here, etc. etc.
 
9:45 AMUSDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun) 51.6-0.0951.751.7
10:00 AMUSDConstruction Spending (MoM)(May) -0.1% -0.470.1% -0.1%
10:00 AMUSDISM Manufacturing Employment Index(Jun) 49.3-0.215051.1
10:00 AMUSDISM Manufacturing New Orders Index(Jun) 49.30.164945.4
10:00 AMUSDISM Manufacturing PMI(Jun) 48.5-0.3849.148.7
10:00 AMUSDISM Manufacturing Prices Paid(Jun) 52.1-1.0755.957
Manufacturing numbers fractionally declining except new orders index.
If there is a glut in inventory, it could lead to lower prices, imo.
 
SpikeUM said:
I owe you a call. BTW, chatted with an inhouse economist for one of the major providers, interesting conversation. Thinks the current probability of a Trump win will stoke a rally (more pro business, less red tape, less taxes, etc) but is also concerned about a severe correction at any time. Overbought market, Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, elections in Europe, political instability here, etc. etc.
Click to expand...
None of the Fortune 100 CEOs—a group that has historically leaned Republican—have donated to former President Donald Trump's 2024 reelection campaign, Yale School of Management Professor Jeffrey Sonnefeld told Fortune.5 days ago
The Fortune 100 is a list of the top 100 public and private companies in the United States ranked by revenue.
Does anyone have an explanation?
 
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mr.h said:
None of the Fortune 100 CEOs—a group that has historically leaned Republican—have donated to former President Donald Trump's 2024 reelection campaign, Yale School of Management Professor Jeffrey Sonnefeld told Fortune.5 days ago
The Fortune 100 is a list of the top 100 public and private companies in the United States ranked by revenue.
Does anyone have an explanation?
Click to expand...

No clue why that is, if true, but the point made is still valid. Less regulations, less taxes, less bull**** spending is good for the economy and taxpayers. Think of small business, think of banks, think of any public company that has to worry about carbon emissions reporting, DEI departments, etc etc etc.
 
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mr.h said:
None of the Fortune 100 CEOs—a group that has historically leaned Republican—have donated to former President Donald Trump's 2024 reelection campaign, Yale School of Management Professor Jeffrey Sonnefeld told Fortune.5 days ago
The Fortune 100 is a list of the top 100 public and private companies in the United States ranked by revenue.
Does anyone have an explanation?
Click to expand...
Have they donated to Biden?
 
JD08 said:
Have they donated to Biden?
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I posted this because of the quote that a Trump win would spark a rally, as he is more pro business. If true, what is the explanation for a Republican leaning group not donating to Trump? I believe it’s because they think Trump is not as pro business as a true conservative and that he really does not understand buisness issues.
 
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mr.h said:
I posted this because of the quote that a Trump win would spark a rally, as he is more pro business. If true, what is the explanation for a Republican leaning group not donating to Trump?
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Wall St has been plenty pro-D in the past. I just asked to see if they were not donating at all. We may end up having to choose between two different crap sandwiches, but that doesn't mean we want to finance them.
 
mr.h said:
I posted this because of the quote that a Trump win would spark a rally, as he is more pro business. If true, what is the explanation for a Republican leaning group not donating to Trump? I believe it’s because they think Trump is not as pro business as a true conservative and that he really does not understand buisness issues.
Click to expand...
The argument that either candidate would start a rally would only be temporary. Likely a result of the market no longer worrying about future uncertainty.
4 years of Trump and 4 years of Biden both saw steady climbs in the market.
 
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