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8:30 AMUSDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(May) TRADE NOW0.4% 0.580.3% 0.2%
8:30 AMUSDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(May) TRADE NOW4.1% 1.033.9% 4%
8:30 AMUSDAverage Weekly Hours(May) 34.30.0034.334.3
8:30 AMUSDLabor Force Participation Rate(May) 62.5% --62.7%
8:30 AMUSDNonfarm Payrolls(May) TRADE NOW272K1.10185K165K
8:30 AMUSDU6 Underemployment Rate(May) 7.4% --7.4%
8:30 AMUSDUnemployment Rate(May) TRADE NOW4% 0.793.9% 3.9%
Payrolls stronger than expected
Monthly earnings YOY up
Labor force participation slightly down
Unemployment rate hits 4%
Doesn’t help early rate cut, but doesn’t eliminate it..
Overall a strong report. CNBC questioning numbers reported..Data shows moderating economy but not in line with payroll numbers.
 
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Health care needed, government continues to grow like a cancer, manufacturing disappointing if literally $1T+ is being spent on onshoring.
 
SpikeUM said:
Health care needed, government continues to grow like a cancer, manufacturing disappointing if literally $1T+ is being spent on onshoring.
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I'd be willing to bet a large amount of those health care jobs are entry level. Demand exceeds supply and Healthcare costs haven't kept up to afford hiring highly experienced people.

Just as hunch based on observation, I have no data to support that.
 
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SpikeUM said:
The Fed has various roles, including the "plumbing" to allow the financial system to flow smoothly. Its stupid to eliminate it, but they should also be held accountable for their mistakes. For example, the SF Fed head president over multiple recent bank failures, including SVB, why does she still have a job?
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As soon as politics get mixed in, things turn to ****. They no longer do what's in the best interest of the country, but what's in the best interest of the people to whom they're beholden, while doing as little damage as possible.
 
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So JPM thinks at most there is one cut, BAC is very different:

  • Recent economic data points to an economy growing at a solid, albeit slower pace
  • Signals are that consumer spending and services remain favorable
  • Data on manufacturing, labor markets and housing are reflecting a softer tone
  • Our economics team expects the Fed to stay on hold (at its meeting this week) amid downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation
  • The median dot should call for two cuts this year
  • We expect them to maintain this call , thereby preserving optionality in light of data dependence
  • In our view, the bar for hikes or several cuts this year remains high
  • Inflation took a small step in the right direction in April with core CPI and PCE both decelerating
  • May should follow suit, in our opinion, with our forecast for core and headline CPI inflation to rise by 0.3% and 0.1% m/m.
  • This would leave core and headline up 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively (both unchanged from April levels)
  • Moderating growth should keep expectations centered on Fed cuts, not Fed hikes
  • At the June FOMC meeting, we think the Fed will opt for patience, arguing that policy needs more time to cool demand
  • Our forecast remains for the Fed to cut once in 2024 (in December), four times (or by 100bp) in 2025 and two times (50bp) in 2026
  • This would result in a 2026 terminal Fed Funds rate of 3.50%-3.75%.
 
SpikeUM said:
So JPM thinks at most there is one cut, BAC is very different:

  • Recent economic data points to an economy growing at a solid, albeit slower pace
  • Signals are that consumer spending and services remain favorable
  • Data on manufacturing, labor markets and housing are reflecting a softer tone
  • Our economics team expects the Fed to stay on hold (at its meeting this week) amid downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation
  • The median dot should call for two cuts this year
  • We expect them to maintain this call , thereby preserving optionality in light of data dependence
  • In our view, the bar for hikes or several cuts this year remains high
  • Inflation took a small step in the right direction in April with core CPI and PCE both decelerating
  • May should follow suit, in our opinion, with our forecast for core and headline CPI inflation to rise by 0.3% and 0.1% m/m.
  • This would leave core and headline up 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively (both unchanged from April levels)
  • Moderating growth should keep expectations centered on Fed cuts, not Fed hikes
  • At the June FOMC meeting, we think the Fed will opt for patience, arguing that policy needs more time to cool demand
  • Our forecast remains for the Fed to cut once in 2024 (in December), four times (or by 100bp) in 2025 and two times (50bp) in 2026
  • This would result in a 2026 terminal Fed Funds rate of 3.50%-3.75%.
Click to expand...
Don’t tell 90..He thinks Jamie Dimon is an oracle.
 
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Apple killed it.
Business Insider:
Apple stock soared as much as 7% on Tuesday to a record high above $200 per share.

The gains came a day after Apple's keynote presentation at its WWDC event, which was heavily centered on its new generative AI software offerings.

The stock initially sold off, with Apple shares falling 2% on Monday following the WWDC event.

But after a slew of positive analyst notes from Wall Street,Apple shares are soaring, with the company adding about $198 billion in market value on Tuesday at its peak.

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Analysts at Citi said it was the "best WWDC ever" while analyst at Goldman Sachs said the integration of ChatGPT and a more conversational Siri assistant should help drive an upgrade cycle across its iPhone and Mac devices.

That's because the new AI features will only work on the iPhone 15 Pro model or later, and only with Macs that have the M1 processor chip or later.

"We're encouraged by the financial implication of today's announcements, with product features that should help to drive upgrade demand for products," Goldman Sachs said.

Finally, JPMorgan said the fact that the iPhone 15 Pro will be able to run the new AI features will become an important selling point for emerging markets after the iPhone 16 is released in September.



"It will serve to accelerate the AI-related upgrade cycle in multiple emerging markets where local market demographics lead Apple to focus marketing on the last generation of the iPhone line up with affordability for the consumer in mind," JPMorgan said.

Tuesday's gain for Apple has re-cemented the iPhone maker as the second largest company in the world, reclaiming the spot from Nvidia.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Apple is only $22 billion away from eclipsing Microsoft to once again become the most valuable company in the world.
 
SpikeUM said:
IMHO as well.
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He’s been wrong all of 2023 and now with his depression and stagflation predictions. Eventually he’ll be right…what goes up must come down.
I always thought he was overpaid like most CEO’s.. I remember when he cost JPM a fortune during the last market crash….jmo
 
SpikeUM said:
The world has definitely changed, "only $22BB away"
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Apple at all time high. Berkshire dumped over 116 million shares of Apple, with an estimated value of over $21 billion using the average price of Apple's stock in Q1.May 28…..oops
 
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