Good stuff Burt. I can't disagree with anything that you said. We're still a couple of years away. We're short on talent in certain areas, and even when that talent is ready, to truly be elite, we're going to need to have the quality depth as well. A win next week would be one of the bigger upsets that I've witnessed as a Cane fan.
We haven't been a heavy underdog too often over the years, big fella. So, you're absolutely right. If we pull that upset next week it'll be one of the biggest we've pulled off in a LONG time. I don't remember how heavily UCLA was favored against us, but that was a pretty big one we pulled off when Edge hung 300 on them and made them look so feeble he got them investigated by the FBI for possible point shaving.
The UCLA game in 1998 was originally -11.5 and -12, then dropped to the -10 range at kickoff. The wise guy joints closed -9.5. In addition, the money line was quite low for a 10 point favorite. Lots of sharps took the Canes outright so the money line looked more like a 7.5 or 8 point favorite at kickoff. That's somewhat standard for road non-conference games. Lots of vulnerability to an outright defeat so the money lines are almost begging you to take the favorite. Next week at Florida State will be the opposite. The money line on the Seminoles will likely be in the -1000 range, compared to -330 range for UCLA in 1998. This would be a markedly greater upset.
Miami could be as much as a 20 point underdog. I wouldn't be shocked. Florida State bettors are laughing at the opening numbers these days. The Clemson number jumped and the NC State spot today moved up more than a touchdown. The oddsmakers have to steer toward the upside to counter such lopsided action.
Regardless, I'd rather be unbeaten and whispered as a fraud, than a 2-3 loss irrelevancy. Only good things can come of this, other than perhaps drawing a bowl opponent who is a tier or two above our level. When we're rated in the top 6 or 7 in preseason, that's when I'll be excited. It will mean our talent level has finally caught up with our aspirations. When you're #27 in August and #7 in late October, only one direction is inevitable. I'm enjoying this with no expectations whatsoever. IMO, today three plays enabled us to escape embarrassment -- Walford's fantastic grab, the personal foul on Duke's run on our second touchdown drive when it would have been third and long, and the questionable (in person, haven't seen TV coverage) pass interference on Wake Forest during our winning drive.
Florida State has allowed 4 yards per play for three seasons running. That's an amazing range. Not enough fans or analysts grasp the significance. It means you are loaded on that side of the ball and your preparation and intensity level are terrific. I've been immensely jealous because I'm well aware of the margin for error attached, particularly now with a playmaker behind center. Florida State has been constructed toward physical legitimacy while we have pieced together a special player here and there. We'll need an inordinate number of breaks, ones that make no sense within the framework of a normal game.
