Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

[Tiny Dancer]

You've listed one "freak occurrence". Kep Brown. Kep Brown's departure in August of 2015 didn't lead to 10 JUCO transfers, nine of which can't play in the ACC.

So you admit that you defend the roster as it was constructed. This is the roster they meant to assemble.

The lineup was without 350 AB's from the two best field recruits of the last two recruiting classes.

Not an insignificant amount.

But you have an agenda so you dismiss it. We all get that.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Way to skip over his explanation as for why a season isn't actually a discrete data point.

It is a discrete data point because without freak occurrences that guy wouldn't even be here trying to discuss something that he hasn't followed at all.

He's only slightly less informed than you are about Miami baseball and recruiting history.

 

[Zbrod95]

Here's how irrational the Morris/DiMare defense has become:

Oregon State is supposed to still win the CWS without their 11-1/0.76 ace, but if Miami loses a freshman catcher we're not even a tournament team. And he defends that roster.

Well, this one is easy.

Miami was the last team out of the tournament. Replacing 151 AB's from a .200 hitting backup catcher would likely have been enough to clear that low bar.

Oregon State was 56-4 and was 6-0 in the postseason since his sabbatical. So apparently he's only super important to their fortunes when they lose.

Once again you bail out when randomness occurs only to turn up again when a one-off fluke happens.

No it wouldn't have.

1) it's mathematically impossible for a player to bat .200 with 151 AB's, it'll either be .198 or .205. Nice math

2) You'll only need another 15-16 hits to be around a .300 hitter

So tell me where does another 15-16 hits make a difference in this case? You don't even know where these hits are coming during a game, **** you don't even know if these hits drive in a run or put him in scoring position so how can you prove this illogical fallacy when there is absolutely nothing to back this up?

Let me guess, its in the mythical scientific theory of randomness that only you have full knowledge about.

 

[We'retheBoss]

Way to skip over his explanation as for why a season isn't actually a discrete data point.

It is a discrete data point because without freak occurrences that guy wouldn't even be here trying to discuss something that he hasn't followed at all.

He's only slightly less informed than you are about Miami baseball and recruiting history.

Look at the numbers this team put up at the plate. This was one of the worst teams in the country on offense. If you want to say that the law of large numbers explains why every single player had a cold bat this season, ok, but it's more likely that the roster is just bad. With your expert knowledge of Miami baseball history, you should be able to recognize that. Rosters are the result of multiple years of recruiting and development. Thus, the coaching staff has not done a great job for more than just 2017. If Kep Brown, whose numbers at the JC level were pedestrian even before injury, is what kept Miami out of the field of 64, then Miami's roster was not good to begin with. You're focusing on results rather than the underlying process, which is ridiculous. If you look at the hitting numbers since DiMare came back, the two Omaha years look more like outliers than this year does.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

No it wouldn't have.

1) it's mathematically impossible for a player to bat .200 with 151 AB's, it'll either be .198 or .205. Nice math

God you're lame.

And desperate too.

I eagerly await your next lie and the arrogance with which you present it.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

So tell me where does another 15-16 hits make a difference in this case?

This is a question that's almost as dumb as Jagr's about why we recruit JUCO players.

Say for instance that we lost 6 one-run games (which we did). A single hit can make a difference in any one of them. ****, it may make a difference in the 3 games we lost by two runs.

You're just young and dumb and clueless.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

You don't even know where these hits are coming during a game, **** you don't even know if these hits drive in a run or put him in scoring position so how can you prove this illogical fallacy when there is absolutely nothing to back this up?

This guy is really trying to argue that having a hypothetical .300 hitter to replace a .205 hitter wouldn't make a difference for the last team out of the field.

It makes my head hurt just reading his stupid stuff.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Look at the numbers this team put up at the plate. This was one of the worst teams in the country on offense.

Another one year sample size.

You're not even close to interesting with your insignificant arguments.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

If you want to say that the law of large numbers explains why every single player had a cold bat this season, ok, but it's more likely that the roster is just bad.

I'm arguing that you're singling out one bad season after back-to-back seasons in the top 40 in both AVG and OBP. In 2015, Miami was 2nd in the country in OBP.

You've been doing this for two days now.

You just keep pounding one season of stats and decrying how bad it was.

Maybe you don't understand why that's dumb but it is.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

With your expert knowledge of Miami baseball history, you should be able to recognize that.

You don't have an understanding of basic statistics or rudimentary logic.

If you did you wouldn't be making the same tired arguments that has made Jagr a monumental failure.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

You're focusing on results rather than the underlying process, which is ridiculous.

You're arguing that the roster was bad because the batting average was bad for one season.

You don't even understand what a small sample size is and why one season preceded by two very good ones doesn't tell you anything about their hitting or coaching process.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

If you look at the hitting numbers since DiMare came back, the two Omaha years look more like outliers than this year does.

And you finish with a flourish.

So you just got done telling me, a few sentences earlier, that rosters are the result of multiple years of recruiting and development. But then you say that Gino DiMare had bad batting averages in his first few years back so 2015-16 were outliers.

It's as if you just randomly throw darts at a board to come up with your arguments.

None of it is coherent in any way.

Gino's first few teams had averages around .259 for the season. Guess who's hitting .259 this year? Florida, who's in the championship series. I doubt you're going to make any claims about how bad their coaching staff is.

Again, no rhyme or reason to anything you and Jagr say. It's all dartboard logic.

 

[Zbrod95]

So tell me where does another 15-16 hits make a difference in this case?

This is a question that's almost as dumb as Jagr's about why we recruit JUCO players.

Say for instance that we lost 6 one-run games (which we did). A single hit can make a difference in any one of them. ****, it may make a difference in the 3 games we lost by two runs.

You're just young and dumb and clueless.

Or it doesn't make a difference in any of them....you still don't know where these hits come from. This isn't a fact

 

[Zbrod95]

You don't even know where these hits are coming during a game, **** you don't even know if these hits drive in a run or put him in scoring position so how can you prove this illogical fallacy when there is absolutely nothing to back this up?

This guy is really trying to argue that having a hypothetical .300 hitter to replace a .205 hitter wouldn't make a difference for the last team out of the field.

It makes my head hurt just reading his stupid stuff.

That's a best case scenario, I honestly don't believe a freshman catcher would hit .300 in his first year facing high level D1 pitching. He'll probably be around .265, .270 in reality. You literally have a baseless theory and you're arguing it as a fact.

Your head hurts because it's filled with hot air.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

Or it doesn't make a difference in any of them....

Anything is possible.

Baseball is a game of numbers. It's very unlikely that replacing a .205 backup catcher with a .300 hitter won't improve the last team out of the field to a Regional team.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

you still don't know where these hits come from. This isn't a fact

Are you really going to be this silly? You weren't sufficiently humbled by your embarrassing experiences over the last few days?

It's a hypothetical. Of course we don't know where "they come from."

 

[Tiny Dancer]

This isn't a fact

Stop the presses.

Resident logician zbrod95 has discovered that hypotheticals aren't indeed fact.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

That's a best case scenario,

No it's not.

It's a reasonable scenario for a team that was the first four out and probably would've been in anyway if Rice hadn't walked off in their conference championship game.

 

[Zbrod95]

This isn't a fact

Stop the presses.

Resident logician zbrod95 has discovered that hypotheticals aren't indeed fact.

Then are arguing it like it is? Hypothetically, Mike could've done worse than Gomez but here you are arguing like you're right.

 

[Tiny Dancer]

You literally have a baseless theory and you're arguing it as a fact.

You're too dumb to even engage in this stuff.

And the bar is set pretty low at tcgrad and ucaned.