The whole recruiting service thing is not an exact science but it's more accurate now than it's ever been.
Exactly correct. It's more accurate that it's ever been, due to more services getting involved and more tape availability and word of mouth, etc.
Wisdom of the crowd instead of guesses by a few
That increased accuracy combined with a handful of blueblood programs taking advantage has lead to increased disparity in college football. Considerably more difficult to crack that top handful due to sheer manpower advantage. That's why I always have to laugh when some team like Wisconsin is touted in midseason as national title contender. Sure, I love the way they play. They can push Miami around. But they simply aren't talented enough to run the table.
Fans who tout teams like that are using the old standards of college football and not the new reality. For example, Miami 1983 could not happen today. That dominant Nebraska team would be legitimately more dominant. They'd have fewer holes and more stars, after being near the top for so long and stockpiling blue chip recruits. There would be no 17-0 lead out of the gate.
Yes, Miami is more talented than other ACC Coastal teams. Who cares? That hardly birthrights one victory after another. The Canes are not talented enough or good enough to be favored by high amounts on their own merit. For example, when we lost to FIU our power rating on Sagarin was 78 to FIU's 55. That looks substantial. Meanwhile a 78 team is mediocre as ****. That is true this year and will always be true. It's like going to a race track and trusting some mediocre horse as odds-on favorite in an allowance race just because the remainder of the field looks worse. Lotsa luck with that strategy. Let me know how you fare.
As I've posted for years, we are at least 10-14 points from fringe legitimacy. Once that power rating is 88 to 93 level then you can reasonably expect to pull out close games and wind up 9-3 or thereabouts. It is not Ohio State or Clemson or Alabama level. More like Michigan or Notre Dame or Auburn level, to identify teams that occupy that range frequently.
In watching the Duke tape today our athletes are not close to 90 power rating level. No reason to kid ourselves otherwise. It doesn't require watching more than one quarter.
The administrators and moderators here do a great job overall but they are too close to the program and therefore inflate talent perception and expectation every offseason. When it doesn't pan out that way they can't blame themselves for being suckered, so they rant about coaching.
We are a Crowd program, not Cream. Perceived advantage from Crowd to Crowd could not be more fragile. That's our annual predicament within the ACC.