FWIW, there is not a spot limitations issue to be concerned with. We are likely to end up playing below the 85 man limit next year also (unless walk-ons are given spots). Some guys will leave to the NFL, and some will leave because they don't contribute. Knowles may move along, but it won't be because we need the scholarship. A guy going into his 4th year is fine on the roster as long as he practices hard and does what the coaches want and can contribute on special teams or for depth. The risky thing to do is sign too many frosh, because they eat up spots for up to 4 years and limit your subsequent class sizes.
I believe in whoever Richt brings in. If it was an Al Golden class he'd fill it to the brim with 3 stars and a few two star "projects". We're in a good position to land good recruits this year.
You're missing the point. It's not just about whether you pick the best kids. It's about math, and human nature. There are only so many spots, only so many snaps. More kids play than start, but it's human nature for a kid buried on the depth chart to be less engaged, consider transfering, etc. Coaches know this. It's why balancing classes as a general matter is better than overloading. The Shannon / Golden strategy of loading up woth 30+ kids in a class rarely works out well. It chokes the roster and ends up creating departures, holes, morale issues and weaker recruuiting the next year. If you can't decide which kids to take, you may need to think harder.
Fortunately, Richt understands this.
24-26 kids is fine. 27 if a major kid like Surtain jumps in the boat at the last minute.
True. Over signing only works when you’re willing to kick kids off the team for not cutting it. Bama over signs on the reg and has a good amount of attrition. This allows them to have very little dead weight. Richt won’t play that
This is a misunderstanding of Alabama.
From '10 through '16, Alabama never took more than 26 commitments in a class. Despite that, they were the No. 1 class 5 of those 7 years, and No. 2 once (No. 5 once).
Alabama has grey-shirted not because it oversigns, but because it does a remarkable job of getting kids in and keeping them in the program, all things considered.
Compare UM. Randy Shannon took 33 kids in '08, and Al Golden took 33 kids in '12. Those years were anchors on the program, all things considered.
Richt is playing with less than 75 kids on the scholarship right now, and it's not because of sanctions. It's because so many kids we sign don't end up enrolling, or depart early without contributing much if at all. There are many reasons for this, but at the end of the day, it's on the staff to screen kids.
If you go back and look, out of the 33 kids Randy took in '08, 12 didn't stick. Out of Golden's '12 class, an astonishing 18 of the 33 kids didn't stick. That's more than half! Richt's lost a bunch of his 'first' class so far ('16), but that was a class cobbled together in haste, so it's too early to judge him.
Coaching changes also lead to departures, as schemes change and kids are viewed differently. We've had our share of that also, to be sure.
It's hard to manage to precisely 85 kids, so once in a while a walk-on earns a scholarship or a kid gets grey-shirted. But habitually playing below 82 kids is the mark of a program that has issues.
That said, rushing to get to 85 kids would just create the next generation of problems. I'd guess Richt will have around 80 recruited scholarship kids next year, after attrition, and get to 84-85 kids by '19.
