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Over/under: 7 Wins

CaneGrad05 said:
Ethnicsands said:
Odds say over. 7 os a push. 6 vs. 8 is more or less even, though i'll say 8 > 6 as probabilities go. But probabilities are a distribution. No way we should win only 5, so 9 > 5. And ditto 10 > 4. Ultimately, i think 7 is a decent prediction (i'm personally going with 8), but in any case the skew is not normally distributed.
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The odds say under, heavily.
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Would people please stop comparing this seasons schedule and roster to 2008?

Schedule was easier in 08.

The Gators were legit, and while maybe there is not a top 5 team on the books this year, the rest is a step up in class overall.

Charleston Southern = Bethune
A&M was 4-8 < KState
UCF was 4-8 < USF
UF > ND
UNC > UNC 12, but close
FSU < FSU 12
WF > BC
Duke < Duke 12
UVA < UVA 12
VT = VT
GT > GT but close
NCSU < NCSU 12

Overall, most of our conference counterparts are improved now compared to 2008. Even the games we should win will likelybe more difficult to do so. Just because the 2008 team won 7 games, it has nothing to do with this team or schedule at all.
 
CaneGrad05 said:
Ethnicsands said:
Odds say over. 7 os a push. 6 vs. 8 is more or less even, though i'll say 8 > 6 as probabilities go. But probabilities are a distribution. No way we should win only 5, so 9 > 5. And ditto 10 > 4. Ultimately, i think 7 is a decent prediction (i'm personally going with 8), but in any case the skew is not normally distributed.
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The odds say under, heavily.
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Right. I didn't understand E's comment.
 
Sept. 1, 2012 at Boston College
Sept. 8, 2012 at Kansas State
Sept. 15, 2012 Bethune-Cookman
Sept. 22, 2012 at Georgia Tech
Sept. 29, 2012 NC State
Oct. 6, 2012 at Notre Dame
Oct. 13, 2012 North Carolina
Oct. 20, 2012 Florida State
Nov. 1, 2012 Virginia Tech
Nov. 10, 2012 at Virginia
Nov. 17, 2012 South Florida
Nov. 24, 2012 at Duke

The math: B-C ia 100% win. Duke is 98% win. South Florida is 90% win. Virginia is 90% win. NC and NCST are 85% wins. That 5.5 wins from that group.

GT and BC are 67% wins, IMO (we'd take 2 of 3). That's 1.33 wins from those two games. So 6.8 wins from the easy to middling part of the schedule.

KST and ND are 50/50 games, but we're on the road, so i put them down at 33%, meaning we have a 0.67 win probability from those games, taking the season number to 7.5.

FSU and VT are 20% chances, IMO (we'd take 1 of 5). FSU is a rivalry game and we always play them tough. That's 0.4% win probability for those two games.

My odds get me to 7.9 wins prediction on math. I'd suggest it's hard to predict the under on 7 wins (i.e., that 6 is more likely than 8.
 
I think the over.

Our team last year dealt with the Shapiro mess for most of the year. You had veteran players who are supposed to be your leaders suspended from games. There was no real continuity or established order on the depth chart because different guys were coming back at different times. You had players playing out of position to mask depth issues at different spots. You had a new coach, with a new system, a new way of practicing, new calls etc. You had different expectations from the coaching staff on accountability from the players. All the guys that were on easy street before now are out of their comfort zone. Meanwhile, the upperclassment studs that are supposed to get you through this mess and lead the others through the transition werent part of then team!

Besides all that, our team itself wasn't very good:
D-line last year was awful. We had Vernon as an upgrade at end. Everywhere else we are better this year.
LB- losing spence hurts, but DP will step up and a healthy Buchanan in his 5th year. Call it a wash
DB- despite our youth, this is a big upgrade over mike Williams and lee chambers... Ray ray was a nobody here.
O-line call it a wash. Our unit last year was supposed to be legit, underperformed. We have similar talent there this year with stronger better conditioned guys.
Running backs- Lamar was great. Bu Lamar had a bum shoulder. Let's see what MJ has and what duke brings wash.
WR- streeter and Benjamin. We need a tall receiver to step up and take streets spot. But Benjamin lost us a game last year too. Dorsett hurns Lewis Scott could be very serviceable.
QB- This is the key. The team rides on his shoulders. If he is the leader on the field everyone says he is becoming, over for sure.

I look at a team that is as good if not better Than last years team across the board. That by the weight room numbers is faster and stronger and in better condition. That has a better handle on the coaches system, and I expect an upgrade over last years team and their record.
 
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Ethnicsands said:
Sept. 1, 2012 at Boston College
Sept. 8, 2012 at Kansas State
Sept. 15, 2012 Bethune-Cookman
Sept. 22, 2012 at Georgia Tech
Sept. 29, 2012 NC State
Oct. 6, 2012 at Notre Dame
Oct. 13, 2012 North Carolina
Oct. 20, 2012 Florida State
Nov. 1, 2012 Virginia Tech
Nov. 10, 2012 at Virginia
Nov. 17, 2012 South Florida
Nov. 24, 2012 at Duke

The math: B-C ia 100% win. Duke is 98% win. South Florida is 90% win. Virginia is 90% win. NC and NCST are 85% wins. That 5.5 wins from that group.

GT and BC are 67% wins, IMO (we'd take 2 of 3). That's 1.33 wins from those two games. So 6.8 wins from the easy to middling part of the schedule.

KST and ND are 50/50 games, but we're on the road, so i put them down at 33%, meaning we have a 0.67 win probability from those games, taking the season number to 7.5.

FSU and VT are 20% chances, IMO (we'd take 1 of 5). FSU is a rivalry game and we always play them tough. That's 0.4% win probability for those two games.

My odds get me to 7.9 wins prediction on math. I'd suggest it's hard to predict the under on 7 wins (i.e., that 6 is more likely than 8.
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USF, UVA, NC State, and UNC are no where near 85%-90% wins for us this year. that is insane. those games are much closer to toss ups (along with GT)
 
as this team matures leaders will emerge for next year and you will see it on the field. i think having ND and KS early on the road this season will bode well for us at the end of the season. I'm going with Over with 9 wins.
 
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Ethnicsands said:
Sept. 1, 2012 at Boston College
Sept. 8, 2012 at Kansas State
Sept. 15, 2012 Bethune-Cookman
Sept. 22, 2012 at Georgia Tech
Sept. 29, 2012 NC State
Oct. 6, 2012 at Notre Dame
Oct. 13, 2012 North Carolina
Oct. 20, 2012 Florida State
Nov. 1, 2012 Virginia Tech
Nov. 10, 2012 at Virginia
Nov. 17, 2012 South Florida
Nov. 24, 2012 at Duke

The math: B-C ia 100% win. Duke is 98% win. South Florida is 90% win. Virginia is 90% win. NC and NCST are 85% wins. That 5.5 wins from that group.

You consider Boston College a better team that Virginia, USF, UNC or NCState? Yikes.

GT and BC are 67% wins, IMO (we'd take 2 of 3). That's 1.33 wins from those two games. So 6.8 wins from the easy to middling part of the schedule.

KST and ND are 50/50 games, but we're on the road, so i put them down at 33%, meaning we have a 0.67 win probability from those games, taking the season number to 7.5. When you are touchdown underdogs or more, Vegas odds say you have at most a 30% chance of winning. FWIW, KState and VT are touchdown favorites. FSU and ND are double digit favorites.

FSU and VT are 20% chances, IMO (we'd take 1 of 5). FSU is a rivalry game and we always play them tough. That's 0.4% win probability for those two games.

My odds get me to 7.9 wins prediction on math. I'd suggest it's hard to predict the under on 7 wins (i.e., that 6 is more likely than 8.
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The flaw, has already been pointed out, is in your inflation of Miami win % against UNC, NCState, USF and UVA. But, you are entitled to your opinion as well.
 
Over. 8

We're better than last year. While the schedule only has maybe a couple sure wins, I feel like we're going to "out-tough" a lot of teams in close games this year thanks to the work we've done with this coaching staff.
 
Under. I think its gonna be a long season. 5 or 6 wins. And I am usually optimistic. Once the inevitable injuries occur, we are going to be really, really young.
 
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CaneGrad05 said:
Ethnicsands said:
Sept. 1, 2012 at Boston College
Sept. 8, 2012 at Kansas State
Sept. 15, 2012 Bethune-Cookman
Sept. 22, 2012 at Georgia Tech
Sept. 29, 2012 NC State
Oct. 6, 2012 at Notre Dame
Oct. 13, 2012 North Carolina
Oct. 20, 2012 Florida State
Nov. 1, 2012 Virginia Tech
Nov. 10, 2012 at Virginia
Nov. 17, 2012 South Florida
Nov. 24, 2012 at Duke

The math: B-C ia 100% win. Duke is 98% win. South Florida is 90% win. Virginia is 90% win. NC and NCST are 85% wins. That 5.5 wins from that group.

You consider Boston College a better team that Virginia, USF, UNC or NCState? Yikes. P

GT and BC are 67% wins, IMO (we'd take 2 of 3). That's 1.33 wins from those two games. So 6.8 wins from the easy to middling part of the schedule.

KST and ND are 50/50 games, but we're on the road, so i put them down at 33%, meaning we have a 0.67 win probability from those games, taking the season number to 7.5. When you are touchdown underdogs or more, Vegas odds say you have at most a 30% chance of winning. FWIW, KState and VT are touchdown favorites. FSU and ND are double digit favorites.

FSU and VT are 20% chances, IMO (we'd take 1 of 5). FSU is a rivalry game and we always play them tough. That's 0.4% win probability for those two games.

My odds get me to 7.9 wins prediction on math. I'd suggest it's hard to predict the under on 7 wins (i.e., that 6 is more likely than 8.
Click to expand...

The flaw, has already been pointed out, is in your inflation of Miami win % against UNC, NCState, USF and UVA. But, you are entitled to your opinion as well.
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You guys can have your opinions too, but i disagree that i've inflated anything. We should not lose to those teams. We beat three of the four last year, in AG's first season, during a chaotic season. The losses of senior talent may well hurt us against better teams, but we should be able to beat three of the four of those teams, in my view, fo sho. If you think we go 2-2 against at grop, well, i just disagree. If we take 3/4 then my numbers hold.
 
We will have a better qb this year, better OL, better TE play, comparable to better running game (more options, hopefully better health), and hopefully solid WRs (the wild card). Our ST should be better/solid also.

On D, i think we'll be no worse. And we weren't awful law year, actually. Cb should be improved. lb will be a function of buchanon and whoever else steps up. Denzel will be improved. Spence is gone. Chick is back. I think green and whoever else will be o,ay at the other end spot. Porter if healthy is an improvement. Sith, who knows. Our dl wasnt good last year. Dont think it should be much worse this year,

Coaching: consistency, second year in program are positives.

Youth is a negative, but talent and attitude and conditioning and strength are pluses.

Last year's team was better than 6-6. All close games. Turmoil, suspensions, key injuries etc.

I think 6 or fewer would be disappointing this year. 6 is the bottom end of what i can see happening. 7-8 seems fair, 9 possible. 5 would tell me we dont have the rit staff at all, and i'll wonder if we turn in 6.
 
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Ethnicsands said:
We will have a better qb this year, better OL, better TE play, comparable to better running game (more options, hopefully better health), and hopefully solid WRs (the wild card). Our ST should be better/solid also.

On D, i think we'll be no worse. And we weren't awful law year, actually. Cb should be improved. lb will be a function of buchanon and whoever else steps up. Denzel will be improved. Spence is gone. Chick is back. I think green and whoever else will be o,ay at the other end spot. Porter if healthy is an improvement. Sith, who knows. Our dl wasnt good last year. Dont think it should be much worse this year,

Coaching: consistency, second year in program are positives.

Youth is a negative, but talent and attitude and conditioning and strength are pluses.

Last year's team was better than 6-6. All close games. Turmoil, suspensions, key injuries etc.

I think 6 or fewer would be disappointing this year. 6 is the bottom end of what i can see happening. 7-8 seems fair, 9 possible. 5 would tell me we dont have the rit staff at all, and i'll wonder if we turn in 6.
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based on what?
 
over. got 9-10 wins as the number of wins. just think Morris, James, Hurns and Cleveland all have really good years. And that the OL doesn't disappoint this year.

as long as the DC doesn't play think all or nothing when calling defensive plays.
 
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