Maybe a 5. We're favored so technically I have to assign it at least a 5.
But seriously, how can I have any expectations of a team that allows 9.4 yards per pass attempt? That's grotesque, and 4th worst in the nation. I've followed that stat for 29 seasons, after they flashed a graphic during the 1984 Orange Bowl that Miami led the nation in 1983, allowing only 4.7 yards per attempt. In the subsequent seasons I don't remember 9.4 or anything resembling 9.4 at this point in the season. Two defensive backs should have to be blindfolded to equate to 9.4.
Granted, we took a hit last week. Option teams have extraordinary YPA so you can't use some of the traditional measures to evaluate them. But other than Bethune Cookman our high water mark was the 8.6 YPA surrendered to Boston College. That's an ugly three game sample.
One terrific foundational stat is YPPA Differential, which is the net between offensive yards per pass attempt and defensive yards per pass attempt. Miami is a horrendous -2.7 right now, at 6.7 offensively and 9.4 defensively. Sorry, but I can't ignore what that signifies. Flaws galore. North Carolina State is a middle of the road team, at 7.2 offensively and 7.5 defensively, for -.3.
Miami's great teams were often +3.0 or higher in YPPA Differential