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Myth Busters: Lack of QB Play

DMoney said:
We need to sign a HS QB every year. If one of those guys develops, he becomes the quarterback. But we shouldn’t spend money big money on teenage arms. All the evidence shows that is an extremely risky pool of players.

You say that the transfer portal is “like a box of chocolates.” I see it the opposite way. We know what we’re getting with a Portal QB. We never know what we’re going to get with a high school kid.

I also disagree that the Portal is about “plugging the QB position.” It’s just as much about landing impact players. There’s a reason all the top QBs in this draft came from the Portal. And that includes the guy at pick #1, who happens to be the most impactful player our program has signed in 20 years.
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Circle talk.
 

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I'ma keep it absolutely real with you. I stopped reading after the Acc championship record part. Couldn't deal with the depression. But I know whatever else you said was on point because you don't be bullsh!!ttin'.
 
Rellyrell said:
So u feel we should spend our resources on transfer portal QBs every yr, understanding the transfer portal is like a box of chocolates? So what happens when we don’t hit on the transfer portal QB? What happens when a QB chooses the NFL?

Well, we’ll simply be at a standstill; but, pls understand not one top program is operating this way. They use the portal to plug their QB position to protect their HS QB recruits until they r ready to start.
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Top 5 elite HS WRs couldn't wait to sign up for Emory and Judd
 
DMoney said:
We need to sign a HS QB every year. If one of those guys develops, he becomes the quarterback. But we shouldn’t spend money big money on teenage arms. All the evidence shows that is an extremely risky pool of players.

You say that the transfer portal is “like a box of chocolates.” I see it the opposite way. We know what we’re getting with a Portal QB. We never know what we’re going to get with a high school kid.

I also disagree that the Portal is about “plugging the QB position.” It’s just as much about landing impact players. There’s a reason all the top QBs in this draft came from the Portal. And that includes the guy at pick #1, who happens to be the most impactful player our program has signed in 20 years.
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That's a little too black and white though. Yes, we absolutely need to sign a QB every year. But signing one just to sign one in back to back years is why our room looks like this.

There's a huge gap between breaking the bank for the best QB in the nation and spending literally nothing to sign Judd.

That gap is where Nickel and Coleman land. There's mixed opinions on both of them but there's at least something to work with. Neither should require us to break the bank. Guys like them should be our floor.

Taking a Judd or an Emory is fine only if we spent big on a QB before signing them. But there's never a good excuse for taking only them in back to back classes, without anyone to offset them.
 
SCarolina Ibis said:
That's a little too black and white though. Yes, we absolutely need to sign a QB every year. But signing one just to sign one in back to back years is why our room looks like this.

There's a huge gap between breaking the bank for the best QB in the nation and spending literally nothing to sign Judd.

That gap is where Nickel and Coleman land. There's mixed opinions on both of them but there's at least something to work with. Neither should require us to break the bank. Guys like them should be our floor.

Taking a Judd or an Emory is fine only if we spent big on a QB before signing them. But there's never a good excuse for taking only them in back to back classes, without anyone to offset them.
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We had Rashada with Emory. That's what y'all like to ignore lol. Are y'all really blaming the staff for how that one turned out as far as losing Rashada and only ending up with Emory? Not really sure what you could realistically have expected aside from having chosen not to go for Rashada in the first place and instead target some other top recruits that wouldn't then flip to UF for a make believe like $12M or whatever it was....

The next year With Judd we clearly missed.

But the year of Emory we did recruit a top QB and he left a month before nsd, and it's basically impossible to flip QBs that late. Tough to call that a fail. The next yr was Judd, you can call that a fail, HOWEVER we also signed the best qb in Miami history in Cam Ward, so that far outweighs the Judd failure. Next we signed Beck and Nickel, that's a major win again. And now we are likely to get Coleman and probably another guy I'd assume. Which looks like a win again. So... I just don't see how that is bad. Objectively. Mario has brought in 5 QBs. 1 of which is about to be the #1 pick, 1 of which pretty much everyone on this board likes in Nickel, 1 of which is an elbow injury away from being probably viewed as one of top returning QBs in CFB and was a projected 1st last off-season in Beck. Judd at least has developmental potential. Emory is just a backup.

So yes we need to keep signing guys on Nickel/Colemans level. Every once in a while we can swing for like a top 2-3 QB in their class. But otherwise I'm happy hitting the portal and hoping you hit on one of these talented but cheaper low to mid 4star types...
 
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Calinative said:
We had Rashada with Emory. That's what y'all like to ignore lol. Are y'all really blaming the staff for how that one turned out as far as losing Rashada and only ending up with Emory? Not really sure what you could realistically have expected aside from having chosen not to go for Rashada in the first place and instead target some other top recruits that wouldn't then flip to UF for a make believe like $12M or whatever it was....

The next year With Judd we clearly missed.

But the year of Emory we did recruit a top QB and he left a month before nsd, and it's basically impossible to flip QBs that late. Tough to call that a fail. The next yr was Judd, you can call that a fail, HOWEVER we also signed the best qb in Miami history in Cam Ward, so that far outweighs the Judd failure. Next we signed Beck and Nickel, that's a major win again. And now we are likely to get Coleman and probably another guy I'd assume. Which looks like a win again. So... I just don't see how that is bad. Objectively. Mario has brought in 5 QBs. 1 of which is about to be the #1 pick, 1 of which pretty much everyone on this board likes in Nickel, 1 of which is an elbow injury away from being probably viewed as one of top returning QBs in CFB and was a projected 1st last off-season in Beck. Judd at least has developmental potential. Emory is just a backup.

So yes we need to keep signing guys on Nickel/Colemans level. Every once in a while we can swing for like a top 2-3 QB in their class. But otherwise I'm happy hitting the portal and hoping you hit on one of these talented but cheaper low to mid 4star types...
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Come on man.. I know you're pretty dug in here, but take a step back and look at what everyone else is doing. We're the ONLY program doing it this way. That should at least make you wonder why that's the case. I posted a couple pages back about where the top 25 got their starters. When the preseason top 25 is released, somewhere between 70-80% of those teams will be starting a QB they signed out of high school.

Emory is NOT a backup. He's Peyton Matocha without the hot sister. He's a body who should not see the field at Miami or anywhere else in the P4 level. And I'm willing to bet you that he won't.

You didn't read a word from me ignoring what happened with Rashada. I've posted multiple times, in multiple threads praising them for trying. However, not landing Rashada still does not justify taking only Emory and Judd in back to back seasons.

We took Judd's commitment 8 months before signing day. Jacurri was a Manny guy. Emory was a Ponce guy. Shannon took Judd coming off a Jr year playing in the Wing-T, without watching him in person, with Emory and Jacurri ahead of him. The portal existing does not justify that.

Now, depth is so bad that we're talking about possibly having to hit the portal in the spring for a BACKUP. And let's be real here. We're going back to the portal in 2026.

I'm trying to tread lightly with what I say here ... I wouldn't bank on Nickel being our savior just yet. Buckle up.
 
SCarolina Ibis said:
Come on man.. I know you're pretty dug in here, but take a step back and look at what everyone else is doing. We're the ONLY program doing it this way. That should at least make you wonder why that's the case. I posted a couple pages back about where the top 25 got their starters. When the preseason top 25 is released, somewhere between 70-80% of those teams will be starting a QB they signed out of high school.

Emory is NOT a backup. He's Peyton Matocha without the hot sister. He's a body who should not see the field at Miami or anywhere else in the P4 level. And I'm willing to bet you that he won't.

You didn't read a word from me ignoring what happened with Rashada. I've posted multiple times, in multiple threads praising them for trying. However, not landing Rashada still does not justify taking only Emory and Judd in back to back seasons.

We took Judd's commitment 8 months before signing day. Jacurri was a Manny guy. Emory was a Ponce guy. Shannon took Judd coming off a Jr year playing in the Wing-T, without watching him in person, with Emory and Jacurri ahead of him. The portal existing does not justify that.

Now, depth is so bad that we're talking about possibly having to hit the portal in the spring for a BACKUP. And let's be real here. We're going back to the portal in 2026.

I'm trying to tread lightly with what I say here ... I wouldn't bank on Nickel being our savior just yet. Buckle up.
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Good luck on your journey.
 
SCarolina Ibis said:
Come on man.. I know you're pretty dug in here, but take a step back and look at what everyone else is doing. We're the ONLY program doing it this way. That should at least make you wonder why that's the case.
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We’re about to produce the #1 overall pick. We have a projected Day 1-2 guy lined up for next year. I’d say the formula is working, and we don’t need to worry what everyone else is doing at quarterback.

Where we’ve had issues is high school evaluation. It’s not a star thing, because the guys we missed on (Rashada and Nolan) have struggled, too. And, as detailed above, high school QB evaluation is inherently risky.

Nickel and Coleman look to be trending in a better decision, but we’ll see.
 
SCarolina Ibis said:
Come on man.. I know you're pretty dug in here, but take a step back and look at what everyone else is doing. We're the ONLY program doing it this way. That should at least make you wonder why that's the case. I posted a couple pages back about where the top 25 got their starters. When the preseason top 25 is released, somewhere between 70-80% of those teams will be starting a QB they signed out of high school.

Emory is NOT a backup. He's Peyton Matocha without the hot sister. He's a body who should not see the field at Miami or anywhere else in the P4 level. And I'm willing to bet you that he won't.

You didn't read a word from me ignoring what happened with Rashada. I've posted multiple times, in multiple threads praising them for trying. However, not landing Rashada still does not justify taking only Emory and Judd in back to back seasons.

We took Judd's commitment 8 months before signing day. Jacurri was a Manny guy. Emory was a Ponce guy. Shannon took Judd coming off a Jr year playing in the Wing-T, without watching him in person, with Emory and Jacurri ahead of him. The portal existing does not justify that.

Now, depth is so bad that we're talking about possibly having to hit the portal in the spring for a BACKUP. And let's be real here. We're going back to the portal in 2026.

I'm trying to tread lightly with what I say here ... I wouldn't bank on Nickel being our savior just yet. Buckle up.
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Uh in what made up universe is everyone else not getting portal QBs as well? Lol, just because we are doing it as/more successfully than anyone else we get punished by you and others? How does that make any lick of sense.
Oregon has done the exact same strategy basically. Bo Nix -> Dillon Gabriel -> Dante Moore. Thats 3 transfers. Yet everyone **** rides them lol while we only have gotten 2...
Also it's just funny how everyone complains about here when we don't have proven guys, but then other teams going with completely unproven QBs some of whom they recruited out of HS is supposed to be some evidence of their strategy working? How do you know it's working, just cause they are starting them? Would that be good enough here?

Ohio State just won the national championship with a transfer. And are now likely to move on to a HS recruit who I think was the guy we were going for heavly the Judd year. So that was the win for them and loss for us.. Texas has arch manning a year after their transfer QB left. But Arch was also the highest rated QB recruit in like history and has been sitting on the bench for 2 years (hmm thats a good allocation of NIL funds, right?!). PSU and Clemson are good examples of developing their Qbs. Oh but Wait Allar was the #1 QB in 2022, and Klubnik was the #2 QB in 2022 lol. ND, UGA, and Bama are about to start basically complete unknowns, so I guess we will see how that works out. Oregon like I said is playing the QB portal game as much or more than us.

Nussmeier with LSU is probably actually the best example. But because he returned LSU just lost their #1 QB commit in 25 class to Michigan. So I assume they are going to be in the portal boat for next season too lol. ASU and Iowa St have very good Qbs. But are they some great example of teams whose strategy we should follow, or did they just happen to hit on a QB randomly? UTenn, UF, and Nebraska at least have more proven young guys they are going with, but again ALL were 5 star prospects.

So in summation it's LITERALLY get a 5 star QB out of HS (and likely have to eat the ~$1M NIL cost of them sitting the bench for a year still), and/or do our strategy. The problem is we need more guys in the Nickel/Coleman tier than the Emory/Judd tier. It's as simple as that. And the Emory year we had Rashada which would fit that bucket, but he last minute left. And the Judd year we just missed. So again, like I said, that is ONE YEAR of Misses, really.

And again the best use of NIL resources is for your starter to actually be making all the money. That is what the Portal enables. If you get a bunch of top end prospects out of HS they are going to be expensive, and still have a low hit rate. If you are going to spend big on HS QBs you NEED to spend it on 5 stars with the entire intention they start by their RS FR year at the latest, otherwise you're just wasting money we don't have.
 
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DMoney said:
We’re about to produce the #1 overall pick. We have a projected Day 1-2 guy lined up for next year. I’d say the formula is working, and we don’t need to worry what everyone else is doing at quarterback.

Where we’ve had issues is high school evaluation. It’s not a star thing, because the guys we missed on (Rashada and Nolan) have struggled, too. And, as detailed above, high school QB evaluation is inherently risky.

Nickel and Coleman look to be trending in a better decision, but we’ll see.
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It kinda sounds like the plan is to avoid worrying about the future until it actually gets here.

At every other position we're all about "stacking chips." But just not at QB.

If Beck is a day 1-2 pick, Shannon is gone.

Best case, we'll need a portal QB AND an offensive coordinator.

Maybe I'm just paranoid, but that sounds a little risky to me.
 
DMoney said:
It’s very hard to stack chips at QB because there is only one starting spot and a wide open Portal. That’s one reason we should swing big on traits and not run away from development. A rawer talent may be cheaper and more likely to stay.
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What ever happened to being good? Or is that down the line of importance?
 
Calinative said:
Uh in what made up universe is everyone else not getting portal QBs as well? Lol, just because we are doing it as/more successfully than anyone else we get punished by you and others? How does that make any lick of sense.
Oregon has done the exact same strategy basically. Bo Nix -> Dillon Gabriel -> Dante Moore. Thats 3 transfers. Yet everyone **** rides them lol while we only have gotten 2...
Also it's just funny how everyone complains about here when we don't have proven guys, but then other teams going with completely unproven QBs some of whom they recruited out of HS is supposed to be some evidence of their strategy working? How do you know it's working, just cause they are starting them? Would that be good enough here?

Ohio State just won the national championship with a transfer. And are now likely to move on to a HS recruit who I think was the guy we were going for heavly the Judd year. So that was the win for them and loss for us.. Texas has arch manning a year after their transfer QB left. But Arch was also the highest rated QB recruit in like history and has been sitting on the bench for 2 years (hmm thats a good allocation of NIL funds, right?!). PSU and Clemson are good examples of developing their Qbs. Oh but Wait Allar was the #1 QB in 2022, and Klubnik was the #2 QB in 2022 lol. ND, UGA, and Bama are about to start basically complete unknowns, so I guess we will see how that works out. Oregon like I said is playing the QB portal game as much or more than us.

Nussmeier with LSU is probably actually the best example. But because he returned LSU just lost their #1 QB commit in 25 class to Michigan. So I assume they are going to be in the portal boat for next season too lol. ASU and Iowa St have very good Qbs. But are they some great example of teams whose strategy we should follow, or did they just happen to hit on a QB randomly? UTenn, UF, and Nebraska at least have more proven young guys they are going with, but again ALL were 5 star prospects.

So in summation it's LITERALLY get a 5 star QB out of HS (and likely have to eat the ~$1M NIL cost of them sitting the bench for a year still), and/or do our strategy. The problem is we need more guys in the Nickel/Coleman tier than the Emory/Judd tier. It's as simple as that. And the Emory year we had Rashada which would fit that bucket, but he last minute left. And the Judd year we just missed. So again, like I said, that is ONE YEAR of Misses, really.

And again the best use of NIL resources is for your starter to actually be making all the money. That is what the Portal enables. If you get a bunch of top end prospects out of HS they are going to be expensive, and still have a low hit rate. If you are going to spend big on HS QBs you NEED to spend it on 5 stars with the entire intention they start by their RS FR year at the latest, otherwise you're just wasting money we don't have.
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Ya know.. @cway313 and @Rellyrell both warned me not to bother talking to you. So I tried to avoid saying anything to trigger any of your smug comments. But you can go **** yourself.

What makes you arrogantly preach at everyone else like they're children?

You have clearly never coached a sport and you have never been involved in recruiting a player. I have decades of experience with both.

What are these brilliant opinions actually based on anyway? Because every time you start a post with "in my opinion" I cringe and get second hand embarrassment.

If Dmoney had a change of heart you'd either stop posting altogether or you'd change your opinion on the spot.

There's a saying that opinions are like ********. You're an *******.
 
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SCarolina Ibis said:
Ya know.. @cway313 and @Rellyrell both warned me not to bother talking to you. So I tried to avoid saying anything to trigger any of your smug comments. But you can go **** yourself.

What makes you arrogantly preach at everyone else like they're children?

You have clearly never coached a sport and you have never been involved in recruiting a player. I have decades of experience with both.

What are these brilliant opinions actually based on anyway? Because every time you start a post with "in my opinion" I cringe and get second hand embarrassment.

If Dmoney had a change of heart you'd either stop posting altogether or you'd change your opinion on the spot.

There's a saying that opinions are like ********. You're an *******.
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Lol I've been saying the exact same thing about QB recruiting for years now. I don't base any opinion on who says it I form them by my self... but hey Good luck taking those two's advice tho lol. All my points I made are correct, and the basis for my opinion on this is entirely based on the reality that NIL isn't unlimited.
 
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SCarolina Ibis said:
It kinda sounds like the plan is to avoid worrying about the future until it actually gets here.

At every other position we're all about "stacking chips." But just not at QB.

If Beck is a day 1-2 pick, Shannon is gone.

Best case, we'll need a portal QB AND an offensive coordinator.

Maybe I'm just paranoid, but that sounds a little risky to me.
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Cant really stack chips at QB in 2025. that version of CFB where teams coud Stack 3 5 star QBs on the bench is obsolete in the portal Era.
 
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DMoney said:
We’re about to produce the #1 overall pick. We have a projected Day 1-2 guy lined up for next year. I’d say the formula is working, and we don’t need to worry what everyone else is doing at quarterback.

Where we’ve had issues is high school evaluation. It’s not a star thing, because the guys we missed on (Rashada and Nolan) have struggled, too. And, as detailed above, high school QB evaluation is inherently risky.

Nickel and Coleman look to be trending in a better decision, but we’ll see.
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Why do u keep regurgitating the same argument? Just b/c U win a lotto scratch-off one time doesn’t mean it’s an effective business strategy to continue to utilize all ur money to buy scratch offs.

Ur argument is contingent upon “We landed Ward”, ignoring the fact it took a Hail Mary to land him. Great, outstanding, & kudos to the staff for changing his mind.
-Was he good for us? Yes
-Did we win anything w him? No.
-Did he help recruiting for 2025? No.

Now the new argument is we landed Beck, an injured Beck w a ?able 2024 campaign, mind u, but we’re “hoping” he can return to 2023 form & be as effective as Ward. Lol

Let me firmly address ur Portal Argument once & for all w/ empirical data, to prove to u that Ward’s success ≠ a successful strategy/justification to recruit low rated HS QBs, while paying top $$ for portal QBs.

Here’s the top 25 Portal QBs since 2019

2019:
1. Jackson (to Maryland) ❌
2. Buchele (to SMU) ✅
3. Francois (to Hampton) ❌
4. Hurts (to OU) ✅
5. Fields (to O$U) ✅
6. Winbush (to UCF) ❌
7. Martell (to Miami) ❌
8. Robinson (to Mizzou) ❌
9. Bryant (to Mizzou) ❌
10. Gebbia (to OrSt) ❌
11. Hill (to UTenn) ❌
12. Kendall (to WVU) ❌
13. Starkel (to Ark) ❌
14. Rising (to Utah) ✅
15. Hornibrook (to FSU) ❌
16. Neal (to Vandy) ❌
17. Kelly (to Stetson) ❌
18. Peters (to Illinois) ❌
19. Tuttle (to Indiana) ❌
20. Yankoff (PAUSE: to UCLA) ❌
21. Dormady (to Cen. MI) ❌
22. Storey (to WKU) ❌
23. Baldwin (to TCU) ❌
24. Kolar (to ISU) ❌
25. Willis (To Liberty) ✅

2019 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 20%

2020:
1. Daniels (To UGA) ❌
2. Rogers (To UNLV) ❌
3. Gatewood (to UK) ❌
4. Franks (to Ark) ❌
5. Jurkovec (to BC) ❌
6. Costello (to Miss St) ❌
7. Thompson (to UVA) ❌
8. Sears (to Boise State) ❌
9. Bentley (to Utah) ❌
10. Powell (to Rutgers) ❌
11. Brown (to UO) ✅
12. Newman (to UGA) ❌
13. King (to Miami) ✅
14. Brice (to Duke) ❌
15. Walters (to Miss St) ❌
16. Hill (to USCe) ❌
17. Ramsey (to NW) ❌
18. Yellen (to Pitt) ❌
19. Williams (to USF) ❌
20. Burton (to Purdue) ❌
21. Ferguson (to Liberty) ❌
22. Tagovailoa (to Maryland) ✅
23. Allison (W. Liberty) ❌
24. Holcombe (to FAMU) ❌
25. Scott (Incarnate World) ❌

2020 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 12%

2021:
1. Milton (to FSU) ❌
2. Mordecai (to SMU) ❌
3. Garbers (to UCLA) ❌
4. Hiliniski (NW) ❌
5. Shough (to TT) ❌
6. Gunnell (to Memphis) ❌
7. Finley (to AU) ❌
8. Coan (to ND) ❌
9. Zappe (to WKU) ✅
10. Brewer (to Utah) ❌
11. Levis (to UK) ✅?
12. Milton (to UTenn) ❌
*247 only provided top 12, but 12-17% were hits (pending how U view Levis’ time at UK)

2022:
1. Williams (to USC) ✅
2. Ewers (to Texas) ✅*
3. Dart (to Miss) ✅
4. Rattler (to USCe) ✅
5. Ward (to WSU) ✅
6. Gabriel (to OU) ✅
7. Johnson (to A&M) ❌
8. Slovis (to Pitt) ❌
9. Bazelak (to Indiana) ❌
10. Williams (to Utah St) ❌
11. Daniels (to LSU) ✅
12. Martinez (to KSU) ❌
13. Illingworth (Nevada) ❌
14. Daniels (WVU) ❌
15. Bohanon (to USF) ❌
16. Thompson (Nebraska) ❌
17. Calzada (AU) ❌
18. Nix (UO) ✅
19. de Laura (to WSU) ❌
20. Wells (VT) ❌
21. Gibson (GT) ❌
22. Penix (UW) ✅
23. Allen (to Tarleton State) ❌

2022 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 39%

2023:
1. Hartman (to ND) ✅
2. Leary (to UK) ❌
3. Card (to Purdue) ❌
4. Sanders (to CU) ✅
5. Howard (to Miss) ❌
6. Armstrong (to NCSt) ❌
7. Mordecai (to Wisconsin) ❌
8. Uiagaleile (to OrSt) ❌
9. Schlee (to UCLA) ❌
10. Altmyer (to Illinois) ✅
11. Jackson V (to Cal) ❌
12. Mertz (to UF) ❌
13. Sims (to Nebraska) ❌
14. Garcia (to Mizzou) ❌
15. Jackson (to Indiana) ❌
16. Allen (to UL) ❌
17. Sanders (to Ole Miss) ❌
18. Keene (to Fresno) ✅
19. Slovis (to BYU) ❌
20. Robertson (to Baylor) ≈
21. Evers (to Wisconsin) ❌
22. Hornsby (to Ark St) ❌
23. Muskett (to UVA) ❌
24. McNamara (to Iowa) ❌
25. Drones (to VA Tech) ≈

2023 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 16%.
I’m iffy on both Robertson & Drones as both have yielded below avg. records for their respective schools as starting QBs.

2024:
1. Sayin (to OSU)*
Sayin is technically a transfer, but never fully enrolled at Bama.
2. Chiles (to MSU) ❌
3. Moore (to UO) TBD
4. Ward (to Miami) ✅
5. Vandergriff (to UK) ❌
6. Murphy (to Duke) ❌ (I’ll explain y)
7. Howard (to OSU) ✅
8. Leonard (to ND) ✅
9. Mack (to Bama) ❌
10. Rashada (to UGA) ❌
11. Finn (to Baylor) ❌
12. Gabriel (to UO) ✅
13. Uiagaleile (to FSU) ❌
14. McCord (to Syracuse) ✅
15. Nelson (to Boise St) ❌
16. Rogers (to UW) ❌
17. Van Dyke (to Wisconsin) ❌
18. Sorsby (to Cincy) ❌
19. Brosmer (to Minnesota) ✅
20. McCall (to NCSt) ❌
21. Johnson (to Vanderbilt) ❌
22. Rourke (to Indiana) ✅
23. Maiava (to USC) ❌
24. Davis (to UCLA) ❌
25. Williams (to UW) ❌

2024 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 28%
Murphy is considered a miss b/c even though Duke had a relatively successful season under him, he quit on the team & entered the portal before Duke’s season was complete.

Playing the portal game is literally a Forest Gump mentality, U have zero idea what u’re going to get.

Now, let’s re-examine the CFP 12, & add further context so u can grasp the appropriate recruiting strategy:

1. UO - Portal QB
2. UGA - HS Recruited QB
3. Boise State - HS Recruited QB
4. ASU - Portal QB*
5. UT - Portal QB*
6. PSU - HS Recruited QB
7. ND - Portal QB
8. O$U - Portal QB
9. UTenn - HS Recruited QB
10. IU - Portal QB
11. SMU - HS Recruited QB
12. Clemson - HS Recruited QB

*ASU & UT’s Portal QB didn’t start/play a game at previous schools.

OK, let’s focus on the teams that dipped in the portal in 2024 & look at what they’ll be doing in 2025:

1. UO.
Grabbed both Gabriel & Moore. Gabriel was a bridge to Moore who has 3 yrs of eligibility coming over. Moore is now a bridge to HS QB Akili Smith Jr.

2. ASU
Leavitt came to ASU w/ 4 yrs of eligibility

3. UT
Ewers came to UT w 4 yrs of eligibility & is now handing the reigns to 5* HS recruit Arch Manning

4. ND
Leonard was a bridge to 4* HS recruit Angeli who wasn’t ready, but now Angeli will be their starter.

5. O$U
Incumbent starter Kyle McCord transferred, leaving OSU w two true freshmen QB & Devin Brown who’s more athlete than QB. Howard was a bridge to Sayin.

6. IU
Literally they had no QB w/ the coaching change & roster overhaul.

UT, ND, & O$U will be starting their HS QB’s in 2025. If u wanna use semantics & say Sayin is a portal QB although he not played an ounce of anything for Bama just to prove a point, have at it. But the commonality has been the following;

1. The top teams that dipped into the portal for a bridge to their HS QB or

2. The top teams dipped into the portal for starters w/ multiple years of eligibility while still recruiting the QB position

The argument of Ward is a moot point. U don’t throw champagne b/c we won 10 games. He’s not here for 2025, & we have zero hardware to show for it. It’s a blessing nothing happened to him b/c we saw 1st hand what the team looked like when the QB room came in to replace him. Did u see what UGA did after Beck went down? They brought in their future QB, 4* & Top 10 at his position G. Stockton who led them to the SEC crown.

U build ur team for today & tomorrow w/ the QB room. Relying strictly on the transfer portal is not the strategy any top team is utilizing. To re-EMPHASIZE:

They are either
a) Getting a 1 yr rental to allow their HS QBs to develop

or

b) Snatching up portal QBs that have multiple years of eligibility

In fact, to double down on point “b”, out of the 30 successful portal QBs since 2019 ranked in the top 25, 63% played multiple yrs for their new programs.
 
Rellyrell said:
Why do u keep regurgitating the same argument? Just b/c U win a lotto scratch-off one time doesn’t mean it’s an effective business strategy to continue to utilize all ur money to buy scratch offs.

Ur argument is contingent upon “We landed Ward”, ignoring the fact it took a Hail Mary to land him. Great, outstanding, & kudos to the staff for changing his mind.
-Was he good for us? Yes
-Did we win anything w him? No.
-Did he help recruiting for 2025? No.

Now the new argument is we landed Beck, an injured Beck w a ?able 2024 campaign, mind u, but we’re “hoping” he can return to 2023 form & be as effective as Ward. Lol

Let me firmly address ur Portal Argument once & for all w/ empirical data, to prove to u that Ward’s success ≠ a successful strategy/justification to recruit low rated HS QBs, while paying top $$ for portal QBs.

Here’s the top 25 Portal QBs since 2019

2019:
1. Jackson (to Maryland) ❌
2. Buchele (to SMU) ✅
3. Francois (to Hampton) ❌
4. Hurts (to OU) ✅
5. Fields (to O$U) ✅
6. Winbush (to UCF) ❌
7. Martell (to Miami) ❌
8. Robinson (to Mizzou) ❌
9. Bryant (to Mizzou) ❌
10. Gebbia (to OrSt) ❌
11. Hill (to UTenn) ❌
12. Kendall (to WVU) ❌
13. Starkel (to Ark) ❌
14. Rising (to Utah) ✅
15. Hornibrook (to FSU) ❌
16. Neal (to Vandy) ❌
17. Kelly (to Stetson) ❌
18. Peters (to Illinois) ❌
19. Tuttle (to Indiana) ❌
20. Yankoff (PAUSE: to UCLA) ❌
21. Dormady (to Cen. MI) ❌
22. Storey (to WKU) ❌
23. Baldwin (to TCU) ❌
24. Kolar (to ISU) ❌
25. Willis (To Liberty) ✅

2019 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 20%

2020:
1. Daniels (To UGA) ❌
2. Rogers (To UNLV) ❌
3. Gatewood (to UK) ❌
4. Franks (to Ark) ❌
5. Jurkovec (to BC) ❌
6. Costello (to Miss St) ❌
7. Thompson (to UVA) ❌
8. Sears (to Boise State) ❌
9. Bentley (to Utah) ❌
10. Powell (to Rutgers) ❌
11. Brown (to UO) ✅
12. Newman (to UGA) ❌
13. King (to Miami) ✅
14. Brice (to Duke) ❌
15. Walters (to Miss St) ❌
16. Hill (to USCe) ❌
17. Ramsey (to NW) ❌
18. Yellen (to Pitt) ❌
19. Williams (to USF) ❌
20. Burton (to Purdue) ❌
21. Ferguson (to Liberty) ❌
22. Tagovailoa (to Maryland) ✅
23. Allison (W. Liberty) ❌
24. Holcombe (to FAMU) ❌
25. Scott (Incarnate World) ❌

2020 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 12%

2021:
1. Milton (to FSU) ❌
2. Mordecai (to SMU) ❌
3. Garbers (to UCLA) ❌
4. Hiliniski (NW) ❌
5. Shough (to TT) ❌
6. Gunnell (to Memphis) ❌
7. Finley (to AU) ❌
8. Coan (to ND) ❌
9. Zappe (to WKU) ✅
10. Brewer (to Utah) ❌
11. Levis (to UK) ✅?
12. Milton (to UTenn) ❌
*247 only provided top 12, but 12-17% were hits (pending how U view Levis’ time at UK)

2022:
1. Williams (to USC) ✅
2. Ewers (to Texas) ✅*
3. Dart (to Miss) ✅
4. Rattler (to USCe) ✅
5. Ward (to WSU) ✅
6. Gabriel (to OU) ✅
7. Johnson (to A&M) ❌
8. Slovis (to Pitt) ❌
9. Bazelak (to Indiana) ❌
10. Williams (to Utah St) ❌
11. Daniels (to LSU) ✅
12. Martinez (to KSU) ❌
13. Illingworth (Nevada) ❌
14. Daniels (WVU) ❌
15. Bohanon (to USF) ❌
16. Thompson (Nebraska) ❌
17. Calzada (AU) ❌
18. Nix (UO) ✅
19. de Laura (to WSU) ❌
20. Wells (VT) ❌
21. Gibson (GT) ❌
22. Penix (UW) ✅
23. Allen (to Tarleton State) ❌

2022 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 39%

2023:
1. Hartman (to ND) ✅
2. Leary (to UK) ❌
3. Card (to Purdue) ❌
4. Sanders (to CU) ✅
5. Howard (to Miss) ❌
6. Armstrong (to NCSt) ❌
7. Mordecai (to Wisconsin) ❌
8. Uiagaleile (to OrSt) ❌
9. Schlee (to UCLA) ❌
10. Altmyer (to Illinois) ✅
11. Jackson V (to Cal) ❌
12. Mertz (to UF) ❌
13. Sims (to Nebraska) ❌
14. Garcia (to Mizzou) ❌
15. Jackson (to Indiana) ❌
16. Allen (to UL) ❌
17. Sanders (to Ole Miss) ❌
18. Keene (to Fresno) ✅
19. Slovis (to BYU) ❌
20. Robertson (to Baylor) ≈
21. Evers (to Wisconsin) ❌
22. Hornsby (to Ark St) ❌
23. Muskett (to UVA) ❌
24. McNamara (to Iowa) ❌
25. Drones (to VA Tech) ≈

2023 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 16%.
I’m iffy on both Robertson & Drones as both have yielded below avg. records for their respective schools as starting QBs.

2024:
1. Sayin (to OSU)*
Sayin is technically a transfer, but never fully enrolled at Bama.
2. Chiles (to MSU) ❌
3. Moore (to UO) TBD
4. Ward (to Miami) ✅
5. Vandergriff (to UK) ❌
6. Murphy (to Duke) ❌ (I’ll explain y)
7. Howard (to OSU) ✅
8. Leonard (to ND) ✅
9. Mack (to Bama) ❌
10. Rashada (to UGA) ❌
11. Finn (to Baylor) ❌
12. Gabriel (to UO) ✅
13. Uiagaleile (to FSU) ❌
14. McCord (to Syracuse) ✅
15. Nelson (to Boise St) ❌
16. Rogers (to UW) ❌
17. Van Dyke (to Wisconsin) ❌
18. Sorsby (to Cincy) ❌
19. Brosmer (to Minnesota) ✅
20. McCall (to NCSt) ❌
21. Johnson (to Vanderbilt) ❌
22. Rourke (to Indiana) ✅
23. Maiava (to USC) ❌
24. Davis (to UCLA) ❌
25. Williams (to UW) ❌

2024 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 28%
Murphy is considered a miss b/c even though Duke had a relatively successful season under him, he quit on the team & entered the portal before Duke’s season was complete.

Playing the portal game is literally a Forest Gump mentality, U have zero idea what u’re going to get.

Now, let’s re-examine the CFP 12, & add further context so u can grasp the appropriate recruiting strategy:

1. UO - Portal QB
2. UGA - HS Recruited QB
3. Boise State - HS Recruited QB
4. ASU - Portal QB*
5. UT - Portal QB*
6. PSU - HS Recruited QB
7. ND - Portal QB
8. O$U - Portal QB
9. UTenn - HS Recruited QB
10. IU - Portal QB
11. SMU - HS Recruited QB
12. Clemson - HS Recruited QB

*ASU & UT’s Portal QB didn’t start/play a game at previous schools.

OK, let’s focus on the teams that dipped in the portal in 2024 & look at what they’ll be doing in 2025:

1. UO.
Grabbed both Gabriel & Moore. Gabriel was a bridge to Moore who has 3 yrs of eligibility coming over. Moore is now a bridge to HS QB Akili Smith Jr.

2. ASU
Leavitt came to ASU w/ 4 yrs of eligibility

3. UT
Ewers came to UT w 4 yrs of eligibility & is now handing the reigns to 5* HS recruit Arch Manning

4. ND
Leonard was a bridge to 4* HS recruit Angeli who wasn’t ready, but now Angeli will be their starter.

5. O$U
Incumbent starter Kyle McCord transferred, leaving OSU w two true freshmen QB & Devin Brown who’s more athlete than QB. Howard was a bridge to Sayin.

6. IU
Literally they had no QB w/ the coaching change & roster overhaul.

UT, ND, & O$U will be starting their HS QB’s in 2025. If u wanna use semantics & say Sayin is a portal QB although he not played an ounce of anything for Bama just to prove a point, have at it. But the commonality has been the following;

1. The top teams that dipped into the portal for a bridge to their HS QB or

2. The top teams dipped into the portal for starters w/ multiple years of eligibility while still recruiting the QB position

The argument of Ward is a moot point. U don’t throw champagne b/c we won 10 games. He’s not here for 2025, & we have zero hardware to show for it. It’s a blessing nothing happened to him b/c we saw 1st hand what the team looked like when the QB room came in to replace him. Did u see what UGA did after Beck went down? They brought in their future QB, 4* & Top 10 at his position G. Stockton who led them to the SEC crown.

U build ur team for today & tomorrow w/ the QB room. Relying strictly on the transfer portal is not the strategy any top team is utilizing. To re-EMPHASIZE:

They are either
a) Getting a 1 yr rental to allow their HS QBs to develop

or

b) Snatching up portal QBs that have multiple years of eligibility

In fact, to double down on point “b”, out of the 30 successful portal QBs since 2019 ranked in the top 25, 63% played multiple yrs for their new programs.
Click to expand...
The Heisman odds for next year
IMG_5630.jpeg
 
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