Myth Busters: Lack of QB Play

[CANESCANES]

Dante Moore has the 4th best Odds for a heisman lol, Vegas just looked the most stacked rosters and put the starting QBs for those teams at the top proven or not.

Just a quick glance, 7 of the 10 QBs were 5 star QBs out of high school

2022 class top 2 QBs was Drew Allar and Cade
2023 class top 3 QBs were Arch, Nico and Dante
2024 class top 2 QB was Julian and DJ Lagway

Lanorris Sellers looks like the only true outlier among the group

Neiman Lawrence could be Miamis truly elite top QB in 2028

 

[CANESCANES]

DJ Uiagalelei must be the first top rated QB out of high school that won’t play in the NFL in a long time?

 

[cway313]

Why do u keep regurgitating the same argument? Just b/c U win a lotto scratch-off one time doesn’t mean it’s an effective business strategy to continue to utilize all ur money to buy scratch offs.

Ur argument is contingent upon “We landed Ward”, ignoring the fact it took a Hail Mary to land him. Great, outstanding, & kudos to the staff for changing his mind.
-Was he good for us? Yes
-Did we win anything w him? No.
-Did he help recruiting for 2025? No.

Now the new argument is we landed Beck, an injured Beck w a ?able 2024 campaign, mind u, but we’re “hoping” he can return to 2023 form & be as effective as Ward. Lol

Let me firmly address ur Portal Argument once & for all w/ empirical data, to prove to u that Ward’s success ≠ a successful strategy/justification to recruit low rated HS QBs, while paying top $$ for portal QBs.

Here’s the top 25 Portal QBs since 2019

2019:
1. Jackson (to Maryland)
2. Buchele (to SMU)
3. Francois (to Hampton)
4. Hurts (to OU)
5. Fields (to O$U)
6. Winbush (to UCF)
7. Martell (to Miami)
8. Robinson (to Mizzou)
9. Bryant (to Mizzou)
10. Gebbia (to OrSt)
11. Hill (to UTenn)
12. Kendall (to WVU)
13. Starkel (to Ark)
14. Rising (to Utah)
15. Hornibrook (to FSU)
16. Neal (to Vandy)
17. Kelly (to Stetson)
18. Peters (to Illinois)
19. Tuttle (to Indiana)
20. Yankoff (PAUSE: to UCLA)
21. Dormady (to Cen. MI)
22. Storey (to WKU)
23. Baldwin (to TCU)
24. Kolar (to ISU)
25. Willis (To Liberty)

2019 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 20%

2020:
1. Daniels (To UGA)
2. Rogers (To UNLV)
3. Gatewood (to UK)
4. Franks (to Ark)
5. Jurkovec (to BC)
6. Costello (to Miss St)
7. Thompson (to UVA)
8. Sears (to Boise State)
9. Bentley (to Utah)
10. Powell (to Rutgers)
11. Brown (to UO)
12. Newman (to UGA)
13. King (to Miami)
14. Brice (to Duke)
15. Walters (to Miss St)
16. Hill (to USCe)
17. Ramsey (to NW)
18. Yellen (to Pitt)
19. Williams (to USF)
20. Burton (to Purdue)
21. Ferguson (to Liberty)
22. Tagovailoa (to Maryland)
23. Allison (W. Liberty)
24. Holcombe (to FAMU)
25. Scott (Incarnate World)

2020 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 12%

2021:
1. Milton (to FSU)
2. Mordecai (to SMU)
3. Garbers (to UCLA)
4. Hiliniski (NW)
5. Shough (to TT)
6. Gunnell (to Memphis)
7. Finley (to AU)
8. Coan (to ND)
9. Zappe (to WKU)
10. Brewer (to Utah)
11. Levis (to UK) ?
12. Milton (to UTenn)
*247 only provided top 12, but 12-17% were hits (pending how U view Levis’ time at UK)

2022:
1. Williams (to USC)
2. Ewers (to Texas) *
3. Dart (to Miss)
4. Rattler (to USCe)
5. Ward (to WSU)
6. Gabriel (to OU)
7. Johnson (to A&M)
8. Slovis (to Pitt)
9. Bazelak (to Indiana)
10. Williams (to Utah St)
11. Daniels (to LSU)
12. Martinez (to KSU)
13. Illingworth (Nevada)
14. Daniels (WVU)
15. Bohanon (to USF)
16. Thompson (Nebraska)
17. Calzada (AU)
18. Nix (UO)
19. de Laura (to WSU)
20. Wells (VT)
21. Gibson (GT)
22. Penix (UW)
23. Allen (to Tarleton State)

2022 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 39%

2023:
1. Hartman (to ND)
2. Leary (to UK)
3. Card (to Purdue)
4. Sanders (to CU)
5. Howard (to Miss)
6. Armstrong (to NCSt)
7. Mordecai (to Wisconsin)
8. Uiagaleile (to OrSt)
9. Schlee (to UCLA)
10. Altmyer (to Illinois)
11. Jackson V (to Cal)
12. Mertz (to UF)
13. Sims (to Nebraska)
14. Garcia (to Mizzou)
15. Jackson (to Indiana)
16. Allen (to UL)
17. Sanders (to Ole Miss)
18. Keene (to Fresno)
19. Slovis (to BYU)
20. Robertson (to Baylor) ≈
21. Evers (to Wisconsin)
22. Hornsby (to Ark St)
23. Muskett (to UVA)
24. McNamara (to Iowa)
25. Drones (to VA Tech) ≈

2023 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 16%.
I’m iffy on both Robertson & Drones as both have yielded below avg. records for their respective schools as starting QBs.

2024:
1. Sayin (to OSU)*
Sayin is technically a transfer, but never fully enrolled at Bama.
2. Chiles (to MSU)
3. Moore (to UO) TBD
4. Ward (to Miami)
5. Vandergriff (to UK)
6. Murphy (to Duke) (I’ll explain y)
7. Howard (to OSU)
8. Leonard (to ND)
9. Mack (to Bama)
10. Rashada (to UGA)
11. Finn (to Baylor)
12. Gabriel (to UO)
13. Uiagaleile (to FSU)
14. McCord (to Syracuse)
15. Nelson (to Boise St)
16. Rogers (to UW)
17. Van Dyke (to Wisconsin)
18. Sorsby (to Cincy)
19. Brosmer (to Minnesota)
20. McCall (to NCSt)
21. Johnson (to Vanderbilt)
22. Rourke (to Indiana)
23. Maiava (to USC)
24. Davis (to UCLA)
25. Williams (to UW)

2024 Top 25 Portal QB hit rate: 28%
Murphy is considered a miss b/c even though Duke had a relatively successful season under him, he quit on the team & entered the portal before Duke’s season was complete.

Playing the portal game is literally a Forest Gump mentality, U have zero idea what u’re going to get.

Now, let’s re-examine the CFP 12, & add further context so u can grasp the appropriate recruiting strategy:

1. UO - Portal QB
2. UGA - HS Recruited QB
3. Boise State - HS Recruited QB
4. ASU - Portal QB*
5. UT - Portal QB*
6. PSU - HS Recruited QB
7. ND - Portal QB
8. O$U - Portal QB
9. UTenn - HS Recruited QB
10. IU - Portal QB
11. SMU - HS Recruited QB
12. Clemson - HS Recruited QB

*ASU & UT’s Portal QB didn’t start/play a game at previous schools.

OK, let’s focus on the teams that dipped in the portal in 2024 & look at what they’ll be doing in 2025:

1. UO.
Grabbed both Gabriel & Moore. Gabriel was a bridge to Moore who has 3 yrs of eligibility coming over. Moore is now a bridge to HS QB Akili Smith Jr.

2. ASU
Leavitt came to ASU w/ 4 yrs of eligibility

3. UT
Ewers came to UT w 4 yrs of eligibility & is now handing the reigns to 5* HS recruit Arch Manning

4. ND
Leonard was a bridge to 4* HS recruit Angeli who wasn’t ready, but now Angeli will be their starter.

5. O$U
Incumbent starter Kyle McCord transferred, leaving OSU w two true freshmen QB & Devin Brown who’s more athlete than QB. Howard was a bridge to Sayin.

6. IU
Literally they had no QB w/ the coaching change & roster overhaul.

UT, ND, & O$U will be starting their HS QB’s in 2025. If u wanna use semantics & say Sayin is a portal QB although he not played an ounce of anything for Bama just to prove a point, have at it. But the commonality has been the following;

1. The top teams that dipped into the portal for a bridge to their HS QB or

2. The top teams dipped into the portal for starters w/ multiple years of eligibility while still recruiting the QB position

The argument of Ward is a moot point. U don’t throw champagne b/c we won 10 games. He’s not here for 2025, & we have zero hardware to show for it. It’s a blessing nothing happened to him b/c we saw 1st hand what the team looked like when the QB room came in to replace him. Did u see what UGA did after Beck went down? They brought in their future QB, 4* & Top 10 at his position G. Stockton who led them to the SEC crown.

U build ur team for today & tomorrow w/ the QB room. Relying strictly on the transfer portal is not the strategy any top team is utilizing. To re-EMPHASIZE:

They are either
a) Getting a 1 yr rental to allow their HS QBs to develop

or

b) Snatching up portal QBs that have multiple years of eligibility

In fact, to double down on point “b”, out of the 30 successful portal QBs since 2019 ranked in the top 25, 63% played multiple yrs for their new programs.

Brother it doesn't matter how much data you provide or how many ways you slice the same apple. Ward, Beck the same couple of 1st round picks and saving money will be the response.

 

[Rellyrell]

The Heisman odds for next year View attachment 322292

So let’s recap ur further contextual post:

1. Nussmeier a 4+* QB out of HS that sat behind Transfer QB, Daniels, for 2 yrs.

2. Manning a 5* QB out of HS that sat behind “Transfer QB”, Ewers, for 2 yrs.

3. Klubnik, a 5* QB out of HS

4. Smith, a 5* WR out of HS

5. Moore, a 5* Transfer QB w/ multiple yrs that sat behind a transfer QB, Gabriel.

6. Sayin, a 5* “Transfer” QB w/ multiple yrs that sat behind a transfer QB, Howard.

7. Allar, a 5* QB out of HS

8. Iamaleava, a 5* QB out of HS

9. Sellers, a 4* QB out of HS

10. Beck, a transfer QB

11. Lagway, a 5* QB out of HS

Interesting.

 

[cway313]

So let’s recap ur further contextual post:

1. Nussmeier a 4+* QB out of HS that sat behind Transfer QB, Daniels, for 2 yrs.

2. Manning a 5* QB out of HS that sat behind “Transfer QB”, Ewers, for 2 yrs.

3. Klubnik, a 5* QB out of HS

4. Smith, a 5* WR out of HS

5. Moore, a 5* Transfer QB w/ multiple yrs that sat behind a transfer QB, Gabriel.

6. Sayin, a 5* “Transfer” QB w/ multiple yrs that sat behind a transfer QB, Howard.

7. Allar, a 5* QB out of HS

8. Iamaleava, a 5* QB out of HS

9. Sellers, a 4* QB out of HS

10. Beck, a transfer QB

11. Lagway, a 5* QB out of HS

Interesting.

Where is the cheap developmental 3*?

 

[DMoney]

Ur argument is contingent upon “We landed Ward”, ignoring the fact it took a Hail Mary to land him. Great, outstanding, & kudos to the staff for changing his mind.

I said all the same things months before we landed Ward. You, @cway313 and others screamed we were headed for disaster with that strategy. We ended up with the best quarterback in America. Our second choice, Will Howard, won the national championship. So we know how that debate turned out.

Now, instead of some humble pie, I'm reading a sprawling post about kids who went to Hampton and Tarleton State with an "X" next to their name.

Here's some data that's actually relevant to us: twelve of the 15 quarterbacks invited to the NFL Combine this year came from the Portal. That's 80%, and it includes all of the top guys. Five of the top six QBs in Heisman voting came from the Portal. Both QBs in the championship game came from the Portal. And the Miami Hurricanes have landed the most coveted QB in the Portal two years in a row.

And then there's this:

1. Nussmeier a 4+* QB out of HS that sat behind Transfer QB, Daniels, for 2 yrs.

2. Manning a 5* QB out of HS that sat behind “Transfer QB”, Ewers, for 2 yrs.

3. Klubnik, a 5* QB out of HS

4. Smith, a 5* WR out of HS

5. Moore, a 5* Transfer QB w/ multiple yrs that sat behind a transfer QB, Gabriel.

6. Sayin, a 5* “Transfer” QB w/ multiple yrs that sat behind a transfer QB, Howard.

7. Allar, a 5* QB out of HS

8. Iamaleava, a 5* QB out of HS

9. Sellers, a 4* QB out of HS

10. Beck, a transfer QB

11. Lagway, a 5* QB out of HS

Interesting.

In order to prove that Miami is messing up QB recruiting, you posted the Top 10 Heisman odds for 2025...which includes Miami's QB.

We haven't had a real NFL QB prospect in 34 years. Now, we're about to have two in a row, and some people are complaining about the strategy.

If you want to bet millions on teenagers with a 25% chance of success, good luck. I'm getting too old. Give me something that's proven to work.

 

[CANESCANES]

247 composite 5 star QBs from 2021-2026

We can definitely say 3/5 for 2021 was successful college careers, program changing effects.

2022 class so far is 2/4 with the other 2 still in wait and see mode

 

[CANESCANES]

The success rate for the #1 QB out of high school is a incredibly high hit rate for their college careers

Past guys include Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young, Quinn Ewers, Cade Klubnik, Arch Manning

If Miami had any of these guys

Luckily Miami has hit on the #1 QBs in the portal for the past 2 years

 

[Rellyrell]

I said all the same things months before we landed Ward. You, @cway313 and others screamed we were headed for disaster with that strategy. We ended up with the best quarterback in America. Our second choice, Will Howard, won the national championship. So we know how that debate turned out.

Now, instead of some humble pie, I'm reading a sprawling post about kids who went to Hampton and Tarleton State with an "X" next to their name.

Here's some data that's actually relevant to us: twelve of the 15 quarterbacks invited to the NFL Combine this year came from the Portal. That's 80%, and it includes all of the top guys. Five of the top six QBs in Heisman voting came from the Portal. Both QBs in the championship game came from the Portal. And the Miami Hurricanes have landed the most coveted QB in the Portal two years in a row.

And then there's this:

In order to prove that Miami is messing up QB recruiting, you posted the Top 10 Heisman odds for 2025...which includes Miami's QB.

We haven't had a real NFL QB prospect in 34 years. Now, we're about to have two in a row, and some people are complaining about the strategy.

If you want to bet millions on teenagers with a 25% chance of success, good luck. I'm getting too old. Give me something that's proven to work.

No, I said the strategy is bull **** if u’re strictly relying upon the portal every single season; that’s been ur solution. Ward was great for us, so now, what do we have to show for it? Can you answer that?

I’ve said PLENTY of times that USING BOTH THE PORTAL & HS RECRUITING IS THE KEY TO SUSTAINABILITY.

Furthermore, I didn’t post the odds, @CANESCANES did. I simply highlighted what I’ve said this entire thread that the top teams that’s WINNING are utilizing the portal to either bridge to their HIGH SCHOOL QB or they r utilizing the portal to obtain A MULTI YEAR STARTER.

I’m not sure what u’re trying to argue when the empirical data is disproving ur approach.

 

[Calinative]

Just a quick glance, 7 of the 10 QBs were 5 star QBs out of high school

2022 class top 2 QBs was Drew Allar and Cade
2023 class top 3 QBs were Arch, Nico and Dante
2024 class top 2 QB was Julian and DJ Lagway

Lanorris Sellers looks like the only true outlier among the group

Neiman Lawrence could be Miamis truly elite top QB in 2028

Hey it's almost like you either go all out and recruit a 5star QB with the intention of playing them within a year (cause they will be very expensive), or you have to get portal add combined with a cheaper option like a low to mid 4star type. Crazy. Almost like... It's exactly what I've been saying lol.

The thing is there are like 2-3 five star truly elite QBs out of HS every year, and everyone is going for them. Ideally we could land one every like 3-4 years. But getting guys like Coleman and Nickel is certainly good when we are bringing in Ward and Beck tier portal guys.

 

[Alex_Dynamix]

Just a quick glance, 7 of the 10 QBs were 5 star QBs out of high school

2022 class top 2 QBs was Drew Allar and Cade
2023 class top 3 QBs were Arch, Nico and Dante
2024 class top 2 QB was Julian and DJ Lagway

Lanorris Sellers looks like the only true outlier among the group

Neiman Lawrence could be Miamis truly elite top QB in 2028

Yeah I just found it funny that how many unproven guys ended up at the Top of Heisman betting odds despite being unknowns as full time starters but I get it they're on stacked rosters and had 5 star hype coming out of HS so Vegas will give them the benefit of the doubt... & ID take Sellers over 5* Dante Moore in a Heartbeat.

 

[cway313]

I said all the same things months before we landed Ward. You, @cway313 and others screamed we were headed for disaster with that strategy. We ended up with the best quarterback in America. Our second choice, Will Howard, won the national championship. So we know how that debate turned out.

Now, instead of some humble pie, I'm reading a sprawling post about kids who went to Hampton and Tarleton State with an "X" next to their name. OK.

Here's some data that's actually relevant to us: twelve of the 15 quarterbacks invited to the NFL Combine this year came from the Portal. That's 80%, and it includes all of the top guys. Five of the top six QBs in Heisman voting came from the Portal (the sixth went to Army). Both QBs in the championship game came from the Portal. And the Miami Hurricanes have landed the most coveted QB in the Portal two years in a row.

And then there's this:

In order to prove that Miami is messing up QB recruiting, you posted the Top 10 Heisman odds for 2025...which includes Miami's QB.

We haven't had a real NFL QB prospect in 34 years. Now, we're about to have two in a row, and some people are complaining about the strategy.

If you want to bet millions on teens with a 25% chance of success, good luck. I'm getting too old. Give me something that's proven to work.

The strategy worked

I said all the same things months before we landed Ward. You, @cway313 and others screamed we were headed for disaster with that strategy. We ended up with the best quarterback in America. Our second choice, Will Howard, won the national championship. So we know how that debate turned out.

Now, instead of some humble pie, I'm reading a sprawling post about kids who went to Hampton and Tarleton State with an "X" next to their name.

Here's some data that's actually relevant to us: twelve of the 15 quarterbacks invited to the NFL Combine this year came from the Portal. That's 80%, and it includes all of the top guys. Five of the top six QBs in Heisman voting came from the Portal. Both QBs in the championship game came from the Portal. And the Miami Hurricanes have landed the most coveted QB in the Portal two years in a row.

And then there's this:

In order to prove that Miami is messing up QB recruiting, you posted the Top 10 Heisman odds for 2025...which includes Miami's QB.

We haven't had a real NFL QB prospect in 34 years. Now, we're about to have two in a row, and some people are complaining about the strategy.

If you want to bet millions on teenagers with a 25% chance of success, good luck. I'm getting too old. Give me something that's proven to work.

I won't discuss Beck as a success until the results validate that stance. Only a Miami Hurricane fan would think a Hail Mary followed by another Hail Mary shows proof of concept. @Rellyrell just illustrated to you that Portal QBs are just as much of a crap shoot.

The points you are not willing to discuss that actually matter are.

1. What about the recruiting ramifications for signing project QBs?

2. Why is signing a cheap developmental QB more important than pursuing a talented QB for the long term future like EVERY other contender? (High school or Portal)

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

@DMoney this probably deserves its own thread, but how do you think the House settlement will affect all of this?

Will there be less spending on NIL?
With the school paying the roster, would more NIL go into high school recruiting?
Or will things mostly stay the same because players are still going to command NIL on top of salary?

 

[DMoney]

@DMoney this probably deserves its own thread, but how do you think the House settlement will affect all of this?

Will there be less spending on NIL?
With the school paying the roster, would more NIL go into high school recruiting?
Or will things mostly stay the same because players are still going to command NIL on top of salary?

Great question. I think it will be challenged and ultimately invalidated, but let’s assume there is a well-enforced cap. If that’s the case, the strategy type discussions we’re having become even more important. It’s like the NFL.

The money will go up overall, but there will be more consequences for bad financial decisions.

 

[Calinative]

The strategy worked

I won't discuss Beck as a success until the results validate that stance. Only a Miami Hurricane fan would think a Hail Mary followed by another Hail Mary shows proof of concept. @Rellyrell just illustrated to you that Portal QBs are just as much of a crap shoot.

The points you are not willing to discuss that actually matter are.

1. What about the recruiting ramifications for signing project QBs?

2. Why is signing a cheap developmental QB more important than pursuing a talented QB for the long term future like EVERY other contender? (High school or Portal)

But all the unproven QBs starting for these other schools are successes? or not? I'd love an actual explanation of how tOSU (Sayin), ND (Carr or Angeli, but I'd bet Carr), UGA (Stockton), Bama (Simpson), **** Even Oregon (Dante Moore), Michigan (Underwood), etc all can be judged as successes, but us having Beck, who has proven himself at the very least as a good college Qb, isn't. Again that is like 5 of the top what 7 Early top 25 who objectively had far larger question marks at QB than us as to whether they will actually be good or anywhere even close to Becks level. **** Dante Moore was like objectively BAD at UCLA, wasn't he? But now he should be viewed more highly than Beck, just cause I guess he has more talent? I mean wasn't most people even against taking him as a portal QB2 along with Ward last year? I wasn't, but I know many were...In fact I really like the idea of getting cheaper 5star transfers who are okay sitting a year and competing for the starting job following year...

So yes Long-term *IF* all them end up good Qbs, it'll be a good situation for them because they'll be multi-year starters. But it's no guarantee they will be... And most of the top young QBs these programs are relying on are all 5 stars anyways. It's not like most of these guys are mid 4star that they all developed...

Which brings us to the main question - Do you view Nickel and Coleman as "talented Qbs for long term future"? Like really, Its as simple as that. That's obviously the type we want yearly at minimum (over the Emory/Judd level). Emory year we had a talent like that in Rashada before some **** **** happened that was almost entirely out of the coaches control due to UF offering him an NIL bag like bigger than Michigan just flipped Underwood with - except with no ability or intention to actually pay. The most you can put on the coaches for that I guess is Choosing Rashada instead of I guess going harder for Dante Moore maybe? But even Moore already transfered once, and there'd have been no guarantee he'd have stuck here. The year of Judd we simply missed. So they absolutely took an L in 2024 for HS QB Recruiting and 23 was basically Force Majeure. 25 we got Nickel, so if he fits that definition for you then it was a good year. Same with Coleman for 26. Though Maybe for 26 we need 2 qbs just for depth purposes. So far its been 1 year of fail at QB recruiting, 1 yr of just getting ****ed, and 2 years good (not great, just good. Great would be getting a 5star). AND on top of that we landed the #1 portal QB in 24, and at minimum a top 2-3 portal Qb in 25. Also, There is absolutely ZERO reason to believe we couldn't also land a top 1-3 portal QB in 26 if we need/want to - and that absolutely would have higher chances of hitting than ANY HS Qb recruit, period. In totality, we have done Quite well over a 4 year period with the quality of QBs entering our program. Certainly the best in decades...

Personally, I think this 25/26 class would have been an ideal year to go ALL-OUT for a 5star Qb who was the #1/#2 Qb in the country... But we got Coleman and will have Nickel developing for a year. But I just don't see why anyone would think we can land Ward and Beck, and then not be able to land whoever the top Portal QB was next year. ESPECIALLY if all those young QBs yall are so sure are successes at these other programs actually do hit. How many top tier programs will be going for a portal QB if they all have young starters exactly? If you tell me tOSU, Bama, UGA, Oregon, etc are all out of the portal QB market and the teams we're competing against are like USC and like WHO?, I'm going to bet on Mario to pull in the top portal QB for the 3rd year in a row....

 

[Calinative]

Great question. I think it will be challenged and ultimately invalidated, but let’s assume there is a well-enforced cap. If that’s the case, the strategy type discussions we’re having become even more important. It’s like the NFL.

The money will go up overall, but there will be more consequences for bad financial decisions.

If there is a cap, you need to ensure your starting QB is making all the money, and not the backups. It makes it so imo you have no option BUT to go for the Top 1/2 QB in HS with intention they start within a year, or just keep hitting for top portal QB and have cheap developmental depth from HS....

 

[305_separatist]

In this month’s version of Myth Busters, I’ll be examining the narrative of “The Lack of QB Play.” Again, we're looking to see if Miami's lack of ACC championships are legitimate or if they're simply excuses fans have used to pacify or turn a blind eye to bigger problems.

For QB play, I’m going to focus on our time in the ACC since 2004, focusing on fellow members vs. the nation. Full disclaimer: The QB position is the most important position in football. I’ve debated w/ @DMoney relentlessly regarding our propensity to recruit 3* QB prospects, and/or fringe 4* guys. The data shows the elite teams r led by blue chip QBs whether from the HS or Transfer Portal levels.

Since 2000:
-16/25* Nat’l Champions were led by 4*+ composite rated QBs

-22/25 National Champions were led by QBs that were drafted

-11/25 Nat’l Championship teams were led by 1st Rd QBs

*Composite rankings only go back to 2003, so wasn’t able to locate data for Dorsey, Heupel, & Krenzl, but all 3 were drafted.

Clearly having a top tier QB makes a huge difference for a program, even if said QB is just an efficient game manager that’s surrounded by playmakers on both sides of the ball.

That brings us to our beloved team, The []_[]. Once upon a time we were known as QBU w the likes of Kelly, Kosar, Vinny, Walsh, Gino..****, even Scott Covington got drafted. However, @SCarolina Ibis brought up a very interesting factoid: Since 2000, The Univ of Miami has had 2 QBs drafted (Dorsey, & Kaaya), none of which were in the first 3-rounds.

That, in itself, is an indictment on the program or state of it, which is why it’s going to be a true breath of fresh air to see Ward drafted in the 1st (even if he was a 1-yr rental). NEVERTHELESS, even with the futile production at the QB position, the ? remains, is that the reason we haven’t obtained at least oneACC title?

Let’s examine the evidence:
1. ACC Championships by school since ‘04:

•Clemson - 9
•FSU - 5
•VT - 4
•GT - 1
•WF - 1
•Pitt - 1

2. ACC Championship Game Appearances since ‘05
•Clemson - 10
•FSU - 6
•VT - 6
•GT - 4
•WF - 2
•BC - 2
•UNC - 2
•Pitt - 2
•SMU - 1
•UL - 1
•ND - 1*
•UVA - 1
•Duke - 1
•Miami - 1
*ND was a full time member during the COVID season 2020

3. QBs for ACC Championship Teams:
‘04-present there’s been 15 different QBs that’s led their teams to the ACC crown:

•Randall (‘04 - VT)
•Weatherford (‘05 - FSU)
•Skinner (‘06 -WF)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘08 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Boyd (‘11 - Clemson)
•Manuel (‘12 - FSU)
•Winston (‘13 & ‘14 - FSU)
•Watson (‘15 & ‘16 - Clemson)
•Bryant (‘17 - Clemson)
•Lawrence (‘18, ‘19, & ‘20 - Clemson)
•Pickett (‘21 - Pitt)
•Klubnik (‘22 & ‘24 - Clemson)
•Rodemaker (‘23 - FSU)*
*Took over for the injured Jordan Travis

Out of these 15 QBs:
-6 went undrafted
-2 went in the 6th Rd
-1 went in the 5th Rd
-5 went in the 1st Rd
-1 is TBD

4. In the infant stages of ACC expansion, 5 of the first 6 ACC Champions featured UDFA QBs. Ironically, from 2004-2009, this also coincides w/ our greatest concentration of elite talent drafted to the NFL. Let’s deep dive:

The 6 ACC Champions from ‘04-09 were:
-VT (29 draft picks: 34% were in top 3-Rds)
-FSU (29 draft picks: 52% were in top 3-Rds)
-WF (13 draft picks: 23% were in top 3-Rds)
-GT (16 draft picks: 44% were in top 3-Rds)

Compared to:
-Miami (27 draft picks: 63% were in top 3-Rds)

However, these r just numbers, right? Certainly the QBs that won these titles must’ve put up compelling stats, even if they weren’t drafted, correct? Let’s examine:

-In ‘04 Randall had the following stats:
2,775 total yrds (55.6%) 24 TDs 9 ints

-In ‘05 Weatherford had the following stats:
3,208 yrds (58.8%) 18 TDs 18 ints

-In ‘06 Skinner had the following stats:
2,051 yrds (65.8%) 9 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘07 Glennon had the following stats:
1796 yrds (60.9%) 12 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘08 Taylor had the following stats:
1774 total yrds (57.2%) 9 TDs 7 ints

-In ‘09 Nesbitt had the following stats:
2738 total yrds (46.3%) 28 TDs 5 ints

Comparatively
-In ‘04 Brock Berlin had the following stats :
2,680 yrds (56%) 22 TDS 6 ints

-In ‘05 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
2,403 yrds (58.6%) 19 TDs 10 ints

-In ‘06 Wright got injured, so we ran w/ both him & Freeman:
2,527 combined (57.7%) 16 TDs 15 ints

-In ‘07 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
1,747 yrds (58.5%) 12 TDs 14 ints

-In ‘08 we split between Marve & Harris:
2,488 yrds (57.6%) 26 TDs 20 ints

-In ‘09 Jacory Harris had the following stats:
3,352 yrds (59.6%) 25 TDs 17 ints

Now obviously 2006-2008 were abysmal, but take a look at the winning QBs of the ACC in 2004, 2005, & 2009; now, compare their seasons w/ our QBs stats in said seasons. Also, recall at this time we had the highest concentration of Top 3-Rd picks compared to these programs.

5. OK, let’s forget winning the **** thing; let’s talk about simply playing in the ACCCG. Has it really been due to QB-play that we’ve not been able to secure more than 1 ACCCG appearance? Well, let’s deep dive again:

The Coastal had 15 different QBs play in the CG:
•Vick (‘05 - VT)
•Ball (‘06 - GT)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘07 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Thomas (‘11 - VT)
•Washington (‘12 - GT)
•Boone (‘13 - Duke)
•Thomas (‘14 - GT)
•Williams (‘15 - UNC)
•Evans (‘16 - VT)
•Rosier (‘17 - Good Guys)
•Pickett (‘18 & ‘21)
•Perkins (‘19)
•Maye (‘22)

From this fine list of the who’s who of ACC QBs, what if I were to tell u that only 3 were drafted to play QB (Taylor, Pickett, & Maye)
*Logan Thomas was drafted as a TE

10 of these opposing QBs were UDFAs. Allow me to randomly pick a year…let’s go 2013. In 2013, Duke was led by Anthony Boone. Certainly u remember him, correct? Well if u didn’t, neither did I. Mr Boone had the following stats:
2,474 total yrds (64%) 18 TDs 13 ints

Our QB this season was Stephen Morris; his stats were as follows:
3,028 yrds (57.6%) 21 TDS 12 ints

In fact, Morris had a higher QBR than Boone this season.

Listen, I’m well aware of our QB woes. I’m well aware of how pedestrian, at best, we’ve been at this position of need; but guess what friends, SO WAS THE ENTIRE ACC COASTAL DIVISION. The best QB play since 2011 has come from the former Atlantic Division. I’m not saying w/ our QB situation we should’ve been competing for a crown every season. Frankly, there’s many seasons where we had arguably the worst room in the league.

That’s still not a justification for only playing for one ACC title in 21 yrs, & having 0 crowns. Other programs, other teams from w/in our own former division who didn’t have the same amount of collective talent on their roster not only played for the ACC, but also won it w/ pedestrian QB play.

Again, this data is not to prove that the QB position is not important, b/c it absolutely is; but, rather it’s to show us fans that this has been another myth to gloss over the bigger issue, mismanagement of talent. If other coaches can overcome a lack of NFL caliber players on their roster + inept QB play, then we should’ve, as well, at least once or thrice since 2004.

Always fascinating how one can always dig deeper into the reasons we suck

 

[RF-4CCane]

Hasn’t Notre Dame been using the same method of acquiring their QB’s the last few years. Were their evals on QB’s bad as well, the last 5 years? The last QB they had that started whom they recruited, transferred when they signed Hartman.
Or perhaps they focus on evaluating and developing everywhere else and see QB as a crap shoot, so they use the portal to find proven QB’s
And yes, they intend to start a QB this year that they recruited, but what if he doesn’t make the grade? Will they look to the portal again in 9 months?

 

[jdg3158]

Here’s what I know:

1. I’ll take a stud portal QB every year if we need to. QB is the most important position to win. I’d love a better QB room but it’s not that easy and we have a gap between a front line starter and a guy in the program for 2 - 3 years with good training.

2. I hope we recruit better HS QBs like Nickl and hopefully Coleman - not the projects like Judd (nothing against him - he needs 2 more years of real work but he has the physical tools). People forget Emory did well in the Elite 11 - but he was our second QB behind Rashada. Truth is when doing 7on7 or tournaments without pads or pressure it’s a different game. Emory is not a good athlete, slow, low release point and holds the ball too long. It is what it is. He’s cerebral but his short comings physically can’t overcome the game and he’s just flat out slow with everything. Whereas Brock Purdy who has a below average arm and is an average athlete - is faster getting the ball out and can process much faster and is able to get a catchable ball out.

3. We need a QB bench but because of NIL and the portal people don’t realize how hard it is to keep a QB room consistent and stable. Guys are impatient, get called on constantly. It’s crazy. Trust me and this is going on in High School too. I see it with my son already who’s in middle school and has 2 D1 offers. This craziness is starting in 7th and 8th grade.

4. Lastly don’t forget we haven’t had good QBs or let me say this drafted QBs with success for some time so it’s not like we have great track record or consistency to show folks. OSU, Texas, Bama, Oregon, TAMU, USC, LSU, Georgia, Okla, Clemson, N. Carolina, to name a few ALL have had QBs drafted and had success in the NFL in the last 10 years to point to.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

Hasn’t Notre Dame been using the same method of acquiring their QB’s the last few years. Were their evals on QB’s bad as well, the last 5 years? The last QB they had that started whom they recruited, transferred when they signed Hartman.
Or perhaps they focus on evaluating and developing everywhere else and see QB as a crap shoot, so they use the portal to find proven QB’s
And yes, they intend to start a QB this year that they recruited, but what if he doesn’t make the grade? Will they look to the portal again in 9 months?

Notre Dame did take a portal QB in back to back classes after Kelly left.

They also took a highly ranked 4* high school QB in both of those classes along with them. Those two are currently in the battle with 2 other former 4* QB, for the starting job.

So yeah.. they could go back to the portal. But clearly they really like the guys they've recruited.

They did exactly what we're arguing for.