Myth Busters: Lack of QB Play

[DMoney]

If things are so bad that we don't have a viable backup QB on the roster for the second year in a row, its because we haven't been putting enough resources into signing high school QBs. There's very little talent in that room right now.

I know we've tried to go after big fish before (not just Rashada) and it didn't work out. Doesn't have to be every year. Or even every other year. But at some point we've just got to commit and do it.

If signing a top QB costs us players at other positions, then so be it. QB is THE position worth sacrificing for.

I think the issue is our evaluations during that time period.

The blue chip guys we targeted those years (Rashada and Noland) haven’t been very good. If we still wanted those guys, we could’ve gotten them for cheaper on the rebound.

 

[Rellyrell]

I think the issue is with our evaluations during that time period.

The blue chip guys we targeted those years (Rashada and Noland) haven’t been very good. If we still wanted those guys, we could’ve gotten them for cheaper on the rebound.

Here’s a ? that u may or may not know or able to share:

Do u have a clue if we have the resources to recruit nationally via in person evaluations? The reason I ask is b/c there’s some positions u can recruit nationally via Hudl, recruiting sites, social media, etc (WR, DB, DE, TE, RB), but other positions (QB, DT, OL) u have to thoroughly vet.

When it comes to evaluating QBs, u look at the intangibles. I know U put a premium of multi-sport, big arm, etc., but I put a premium on leadership and arm talent (accuracy). This is y I wasn’t a fan of either Sitkowski, J. Brown, or Judd. I also put a premium on character and competition. It’s why I told @LeedsCane I wasn’t a fan of Rashada b/c I knew the comp & I ?’d the character. I don’t mind if a kid is inaccurate when they first become a starter, but I need to see yr to yr improvement (like Lamar Jackson for example).

QB & DT evaluations u have to see it in person, & u have to continue to evaluate, including their progression from Frosh - Senior yr. It’s much more than just stats at these positions to determine their effectiveness at the next level.

 

[GojiraCane]

In this month’s version of Myth Busters, I’ll be examining the narrative of “The Lack of QB Play.” Again, we're looking to see if Miami's lack of ACC championships are legitimate or if they're simply excuses fans have used to pacify or turn a blind eye to bigger problems.

For QB play, I’m going to focus on our time in the ACC since 2004, focusing on fellow members vs. the nation. Full disclaimer: The QB position is the most important position in football. I’ve debated w/ @DMoney relentlessly regarding our propensity to recruit 3* QB prospects, and/or fringe 4* guys. The data shows the elite teams r led by blue chip QBs whether from the HS or Transfer Portal levels.

Since 2000:
-16/25* Nat’l Champions were led by 4*+ composite rated QBs

-22/25 National Champions were led by QBs that were drafted

-11/25 Nat’l Championship teams were led by 1st Rd QBs

*Composite rankings only go back to 2003, so wasn’t able to locate data for Dorsey, Heupel, & Krenzl, but all 3 were drafted.

Clearly having a top tier QB makes a huge difference for a program, even if said QB is just an efficient game manager that’s surrounded by playmakers on both sides of the ball.

That brings us to our beloved team, The []_[]. Once upon a time we were known as QBU w the likes of Kelly, Kosar, Vinny, Walsh, Gino..****, even Scott Covington got drafted. However, @SCarolina Ibis brought up a very interesting factoid: Since 2000, The Univ of Miami has had 2 QBs drafted (Dorsey, & Kaaya), none of which were in the first 3-rounds.

That, in itself, is an indictment on the program or state of it, which is why it’s going to be a true breath of fresh air to see Ward drafted in the 1st (even if he was a 1-yr rental). NEVERTHELESS, even with the futile production at the QB position, the ? remains, is that the reason we haven’t obtained at least oneACC title?

Let’s examine the evidence:
1. ACC Championships by school since ‘04:

•Clemson - 9
•FSU - 5
•VT - 4
•GT - 1
•WF - 1
•Pitt - 1

2. ACC Championship Game Appearances since ‘05
•Clemson - 10
•FSU - 6
•VT - 6
•GT - 4
•WF - 2
•BC - 2
•UNC - 2
•Pitt - 2
•SMU - 1
•UL - 1
•ND - 1*
•UVA - 1
•Duke - 1
•Miami - 1
*ND was a full time member during the COVID season 2020

3. QBs for ACC Championship Teams:
‘04-present there’s been 15 different QBs that’s led their teams to the ACC crown:

•Randall (‘04 - VT)
•Weatherford (‘05 - FSU)
•Skinner (‘06 -WF)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘08 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Boyd (‘11 - Clemson)
•Manuel (‘12 - FSU)
•Winston (‘13 & ‘14 - FSU)
•Watson (‘15 & ‘16 - Clemson)
•Bryant (‘17 - Clemson)
•Lawrence (‘18, ‘19, & ‘20 - Clemson)
•Pickett (‘21 - Pitt)
•Klubnik (‘22 & ‘24 - Clemson)
•Rodemaker (‘23 - FSU)*
*Took over for the injured Jordan Travis

Out of these 15 QBs:
-6 went undrafted
-2 went in the 6th Rd
-1 went in the 5th Rd
-5 went in the 1st Rd
-1 is TBD

4. In the infant stages of ACC expansion, 5 of the first 6 ACC Champions featured UDFA QBs. Ironically, from 2004-2009, this also coincides w/ our greatest concentration of elite talent drafted to the NFL. Let’s deep dive:

The 6 ACC Champions from ‘04-09 were:
-VT (29 draft picks: 34% were in top 3-Rds)
-FSU (29 draft picks: 52% were in top 3-Rds)
-WF (13 draft picks: 23% were in top 3-Rds)
-GT (16 draft picks: 44% were in top 3-Rds)

Compared to:
-Miami (27 draft picks: 63% were in top 3-Rds)

However, these r just numbers, right? Certainly the QBs that won these titles must’ve put up compelling stats, even if they weren’t drafted, correct? Let’s examine:

-In ‘04 Randall had the following stats:
2,775 total yrds (55.6%) 24 TDs 9 ints

-In ‘05 Weatherford had the following stats:
3,208 yrds (58.8%) 18 TDs 18 ints

-In ‘06 Skinner had the following stats:
2,051 yrds (65.8%) 9 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘07 Glennon had the following stats:
1796 yrds (60.9%) 12 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘08 Taylor had the following stats:
1774 total yrds (57.2%) 9 TDs 7 ints

-In ‘09 Nesbitt had the following stats:
2738 total yrds (46.3%) 28 TDs 5 ints

Comparatively
-In ‘04 Brock Berlin had the following stats :
2,680 yrds (56%) 22 TDS 6 ints

-In ‘05 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
2,403 yrds (58.6%) 19 TDs 10 ints

-In ‘06 Wright got injured, so we ran w/ both him & Freeman:
2,527 combined (57.7%) 16 TDs 15 ints

-In ‘07 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
1,747 yrds (58.5%) 12 TDs 14 ints

-In ‘08 we split between Marve & Harris:
2,488 yrds (57.6%) 26 TDs 20 ints

-In ‘09 Jacory Harris had the following stats:
3,352 yrds (59.6%) 25 TDs 17 ints

Now obviously 2006-2008 were abysmal, but take a look at the winning QBs of the ACC in 2004, 2005, & 2009; now, compare their seasons w/ our QBs stats in said seasons. Also, recall at this time we had the highest concentration of Top 3-Rd picks compared to these programs.

5. OK, let’s forget winning the **** thing; let’s talk about simply playing in the ACCCG. Has it really been due to QB-play that we’ve not been able to secure more than 1 ACCCG appearance? Well, let’s deep dive again:

The Coastal had 15 different QBs play in the CG:
•Vick (‘05 - VT)
•Ball (‘06 - GT)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘07 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Thomas (‘11 - VT)
•Washington (‘12 - GT)
•Boone (‘13 - Duke)
•Thomas (‘14 - GT)
•Williams (‘15 - UNC)
•Evans (‘16 - VT)
•Rosier (‘17 - Good Guys)
•Pickett (‘18 & ‘21)
•Perkins (‘19)
•Maye (‘22)

From this fine list of the who’s who of ACC QBs, what if I were to tell u that only 3 were drafted to play QB (Taylor, Pickett, & Maye)
*Logan Thomas was drafted as a TE

10 of these opposing QBs were UDFAs. Allow me to randomly pick a year…let’s go 2013. In 2013, Duke was led by Anthony Boone. Certainly u remember him, correct? Well if u didn’t, neither did I. Mr Boone had the following stats:
2,474 total yrds (64%) 18 TDs 13 ints

Our QB this season was Stephen Morris; his stats were as follows:
3,028 yrds (57.6%) 21 TDS 12 ints

In fact, Morris had a higher QBR than Boone this season.

Listen, I’m well aware of our QB woes. I’m well aware of how pedestrian, at best, we’ve been at this position of need; but guess what friends, SO WAS THE ENTIRE ACC COASTAL DIVISION. The best QB play since 2011 has come from the former Atlantic Division. I’m not saying w/ our QB situation we should’ve been competing for a crown every season. Frankly, there’s many seasons where we had arguably the worst room in the league.

That’s still not a justification for only playing for one ACC title in 21 yrs, & having 0 crowns. Other programs, other teams from w/in our own former division who didn’t have the same amount of collective talent on their roster not only played for the ACC, but also won it w/ pedestrian QB play.

Again, this data is not to prove that the QB position is not important, b/c it absolutely is; but, rather it’s to show us fans that this has been another myth to gloss over the bigger issue, mismanagement of talent. If other coaches can overcome a lack of NFL caliber players on their roster + inept QB play, then we should’ve, as well, at least once or thrice since 2004.

Miami was a program on the descent from 2004 onward, bottoming out in terms of blue chip talent in 2012-2015. Only in 2016 did we start to see a gradual ascent begin as the school began to put resources back into the program, and only in 2023 did that investment really start to accelerate. Meanwhile to play in the ACC title game you needed to win the Coastal and every year without fail one of the other Coastal teams had an outlier year, relegating us to second place or worse.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

Here’s a ? that u may or may not know or able to share:

Do u have a clue if we have the resources to recruit nationally via in person evaluations? The reason I ask is b/c there’s some positions u can recruit nationally via Hudl, recruiting sites, social media, etc (WR, DB, DE, TE, RB), but other positions (QB, DT, OL) u have to thoroughly vet.

When it comes to evaluating QBs, u look at the intangibles. I know U put a premium of multi-sport, big arm, etc., but I put a premium on leadership and arm talent (accuracy). This is y I wasn’t a fan of either Sitkowski, J. Brown, or Judd. I also put a premium on character and competition. It’s why I told @LeedsCane I wasn’t a fan of Rashada b/c I knew the comp & I ?’d the character. I don’t mind if a kid is inaccurate when they first become a starter, but I need to see yr to yr improvement (like Lamar Jackson for example).

QB & DT evaluations u have to see it in person, & u have to continue to evaluate, including their progression from Frosh - Senior yr. It’s much more than just stats at these positions to determine their effectiveness at the next level.

I'm also curious about this as well. Especially with the QBs. We accepted Judd's commitment in April before his Sr year, after playing his Jr year in the wing-T. There's no way Shannon had watched him in person.

 

[cway313]

Here’s a ? that u may or may not know or able to share:

Do u have a clue if we have the resources to recruit nationally via in person evaluations? The reason I ask is b/c there’s some positions u can recruit nationally via Hudl, recruiting sites, social media, etc (WR, DB, DE, TE, RB), but other positions (QB, DT, OL) u have to thoroughly vet.

When it comes to evaluating QBs, u look at the intangibles. I know U put a premium of multi-sport, big arm, etc., but I put a premium on leadership and arm talent (accuracy). This is y I wasn’t a fan of either Sitkowski, J. Brown, or Judd. I also put a premium on character and competition. It’s why I told @LeedsCane I wasn’t a fan of Rashada b/c I knew the comp & I ?’d the character. I don’t mind if a kid is inaccurate when they first become a starter, but I need to see yr to yr improvement (like Lamar Jackson for example).

QB & DT evaluations u have to see it in person, & u have to continue to evaluate, including their progression from Frosh - Senior yr. It’s much more than just stats at these positions to determine their effectiveness at the next level.

I know in the case of Emory and Judd they threw in person and the coaches put waaaaaaaaaaay to much stock in that.

 

[GojiraCane]

Miami was a program on the descent from 2004 onward, bottoming out in terms of blue chip talent in 2012-2015. Only in 2016 did we start to see a gradual ascent begin as the school began to put resources back into the program, and only in 2023 did that investment really start to accelerate. Meanwhile to play in the ACC title game you needed to win the Coastal and every year without fail one of the other Coastal teams had an outlier year, relegating us to second place or worse.

Here's the blue chip (overall and 1st/2nd year players) level for the Hurricanes for the last twenty seasons:

 

[Rellyrell]

I know in the case of Emory and Judd they threw in person and the coaches put waaaaaaaaaaay to much stock in that.

One of the more dishonest takes, & this is y I don’t put stock in coach’s speak, is that the staff evaluated Williams, recruited him independently of Rashada, & were comfortable w/ him as the only QB in their class.

See, the problem w bull **** that doesn’t stick is u try to make it stick in other ways, smearing it. I’m old enough to remember the hype around Williams at Greentree, talking about him pushing TVD, showing great ball skills (pause).

If u’re looking to the portal every off season, that means u’ve done a poor job evaluating at the HS level.

The problem w @DMoney is he points to outliers while ignoring empirical data. That’s y my post can become exponentially long on certain topics, b/c it behooves me to give complete picture w/ context. Outliers ≠ sustainability.

So let’s focus on the CFP era post-portal (2019) & see what the data tells us:

Final 4: 2019-20:
LSU: Burrow - Transfer QB (from O$U: 4* out of HS)
O$U: Fields - Transfer QB (from UGA: 5* out of HS)
Clemson: Lawrence - HS Recruited QB (5*)
Oklahoma: Hurts - Transfer QB (from Bama: 4* out of HS)

*I’m coming back to the 2019 Final 4

Final 4: 2020-21:
Bama: Jones - HS Recruited QB (3*)
O$U: Same QB from 2019
Clemson: Same QB from 2019
ND: Book - HS Recruited QB (3*)

Final 4: 2021-22:
Bama: Young - HS Recruited QB (5*)
UGA: Bennett- HS/JUCO Recruited (2* out of HS / 3* JUCO)
UofM: McNamara - HS Recruited (4*)
Cincy: Ridder - HS Recruited (3*)

Final 4: 2022-23:
UGA: Same QB from 2021
UofM: McCarthy - HS Recruited QB (5*)
TCU: Duggans - HS Recruited QB (4*)
O$U: Stroud - HS Recruited QB (4*)

Final 4: 2023-24:
UofM: Same QB from 2022
UW: Penix - Transfer QB (From IU: 3* out of HS)
UT: Ewers - Transfer QB (From O$U: 5* out of HS)
Bama: Milroe - HS Recruited QB (4*)

Final 4: 2024-25:
UT: Same QB from 2023
ND: Leonard - Transfer QB from Duke (3* out of HS)
PSU: Allar - HS Recruited QB (5*)
O$U: Howard - Transfer QB from KSU (3* out of HS)

Since the advent of the Transfer Portal, the Final 4 consisted of:
-67% of the QBs were blue chip ranked coming out of HS
-62.5% of the teams were led by HS recruited QBs
-Out of the transfer QBs (7), 2 played in multiple CFP games.
The other 5? 3 of these teams didn’t qualify for the CFP (LSU, UW, & OU) the following year, & the other 2 r TBD (O$U, ND).

We talk about building “the right way” while simultaneously looking for one hit wonders every year out of the portal. How does that make sense? What receiver from HS in their right mind will want to commit to an unknown situation every offseason?

IF u’re going to look to the portal for a one yr rental, ur QB room still needs to be tight. Also, I don’t subscribe to qualifying players like Sayin, Ewers, Fields, or even Moore as transfer portal QBs; yes, in the purest sense they are, but when we talk about TP QBs, this board has said “experienced” QBs that’s played multiple yrs at another program.

In essence, the reason y O$U & Texas repeated as Final 4 participants is b/c they “re-recruited” guys they lost out on w/ zero mileage to minimal mileage from the HS level. So here’s my theory:

1. If u recruit the transfer portal as a stop gap, make sure ur QB room is solid from the HS rank b/c that’s still going to be ur life line or

2. If u miss on HS eval, recruit the portal for a multi year starter that will not just give u one season, but multiple seasons of success

 

[cway313]

One of the more dishonest takes, & this is y I don’t put stock in coach’s speak, is that the staff evaluated Williams, recruited him independently of Rashada, & were comfortable w/ him as the only QB in their class.

See, the problem w bull **** that doesn’t stick is u try to make it stick in other ways, smearing it. I’m old enough to remember the hype around Williams at Greentree, talking about him pushing TVD, showing great ball skills (pause).

If u’re looking to the portal every off season, that means u’ve done a poor job evaluating at the HS level.

The problem w @DMoney is he points to outliers while ignoring empirical data. That’s y my post can become exponentially long on certain topics, b/c it behooves me to give complete picture w/ context. Outliers ≠ sustainability.

So let’s focus on the CFP era post-portal (2019) & see what the data tells us:

Final 4: 2019-20:
LSU: Burrow - Transfer QB (from O$U: 4* out of HS)
O$U: Fields - Transfer QB (from UGA: 5* out of HS)
Clemson: Lawrence - HS Recruited QB (5*)
Oklahoma: Hurts - Transfer QB (from Bama: 4* out of HS)

*I’m coming back to the 2019 Final 4

Final 4: 2020-21:
Bama: Jones - HS Recruited QB (3*)
O$U: Same QB from 2019
Clemson: Same QB from 2019
ND: Book - HS Recruited QB (3*)

Final 4: 2021-22:
Bama: Young - HS Recruited QB (5*)
UGA: Bennett- HS/JUCO Recruited (2* out of HS / 3* JUCO)
UofM: McNamara - HS Recruited (4*)
Cincy: Ridder - HS Recruited (3*)

Final 4: 2022-23:
UGA: Same QB from 2021
UofM: McCarthy - HS Recruited QB (5*)
TCU: Duggans - HS Recruited QB (4*)
O$U: Stroud - HS Recruited QB (4*)

Final 4: 2023-24:
UofM: Same QB from 2022
UW: Penix - Transfer QB (From IU: 3* out of HS)
UT: Ewers - Transfer QB (From O$U: 5* out of HS)
Bama: Milroe - HS Recruited QB (4*)

Final 4: 2024-25:
UT: Same QB from 2023
ND: Leonard - Transfer QB from Duke (3* out of HS)
PSU: Allar - HS Recruited QB (5*)
O$U: Howard - Transfer QB from KSU (3* out of HS)

Since the advent of the Transfer Portal, the Final 4 consisted of:
-67% of the QBs were blue chip ranked coming out of HS
-62.5% of the teams were led by HS recruited QBs
-Out of the transfer QBs (7), 2 played in multiple CFP games.
The other 5? 3 of these teams didn’t qualify for the CFP (LSU, UW, & OU) the following year, & the other 2 r TBD (O$U, ND).

We talk about building “the right way” while simultaneously looking for one hit wonders every year out of the portal. How does that make sense? What receiver from HS in their right mind will want to commit to an unknown situation every offseason?

IF u’re going to look to the portal for a one yr rental, ur QB room still needs to be tight. Also, I don’t subscribe to qualifying players like Sayin, Ewers, Fields, or even Moore as transfer portal QBs; yes, in the purest sense they are, but when we talk about TP QBs, this board has said “experienced” QBs that’s played multiple yrs at another program.

In essence, the reason y O$U & Texas repeated as Final 4 participants is b/c they “re-recruited” guys they lost out on w/ zero mileage to minimal mileage from the HS level. So here’s my theory:

1. If u recruit the transfer portal as a stop gap, make sure ur QB room is solid from the HS rank b/c that’s still going to be ur life line or

2. If u miss on HS eval, recruit the portal for a multi year starter that will not just give u one season, but multiple seasons of success

I didn't use the 5 years of data, but I drew the same conclusion years ago.

 

[Rellyrell]

I didn't use the 5 years of data, but I drew the same conclusion years ago.

Man, sometimes when I be on CIS I be ?ing my own eyes. Lol. So I put out the data to show if I’m tripping or not. Lol

 

[DMoney]

One of the more dishonest takes, & this is y I don’t put stock in coach’s speak, is that the staff evaluated Williams, recruited him independently of Rashada, & were comfortable w/ him as the only QB in their class.

See, the problem w bull **** that doesn’t stick is u try to make it stick in other ways, smearing it. I’m old enough to remember the hype around Williams at Greentree, talking about him pushing TVD, showing great ball skills (pause).

If u’re looking to the portal every off season, that means u’ve done a poor job evaluating at the HS level.

The problem w @DMoney is he points to outliers while ignoring empirical data. That’s y my post can become exponentially long on certain topics, b/c it behooves me to give complete picture w/ context. Outliers ≠ sustainability.

So let’s focus on the CFP era post-portal (2019) & see what the data tells us:

Final 4: 2019-20:
LSU: Burrow - Transfer QB (from O$U: 4* out of HS)
O$U: Fields - Transfer QB (from UGA: 5* out of HS)
Clemson: Lawrence - HS Recruited QB (5*)
Oklahoma: Hurts - Transfer QB (from Bama: 4* out of HS)

*I’m coming back to the 2019 Final 4

Final 4: 2020-21:
Bama: Jones - HS Recruited QB (3*)
O$U: Same QB from 2019
Clemson: Same QB from 2019
ND: Book - HS Recruited QB (3*)

Final 4: 2021-22:
Bama: Young - HS Recruited QB (5*)
UGA: Bennett- HS/JUCO Recruited (2* out of HS / 3* JUCO)
UofM: McNamara - HS Recruited (4*)
Cincy: Ridder - HS Recruited (3*)

Final 4: 2022-23:
UGA: Same QB from 2021
UofM: McCarthy - HS Recruited QB (5*)
TCU: Duggans - HS Recruited QB (4*)
O$U: Stroud - HS Recruited QB (4*)

Final 4: 2023-24:
UofM: Same QB from 2022
UW: Penix - Transfer QB (From IU: 3* out of HS)
UT: Ewers - Transfer QB (From O$U: 5* out of HS)
Bama: Milroe - HS Recruited QB (4*)

Final 4: 2024-25:
UT: Same QB from 2023
ND: Leonard - Transfer QB from Duke (3* out of HS)
PSU: Allar - HS Recruited QB (5*)
O$U: Howard - Transfer QB from KSU (3* out of HS)

In your own sample, only 42% of playoff QBs are homegrown blue-chips. And one of them is Cade McNamara. The majority are either transfers or three stars.

We talk about building “the right way” while simultaneously looking for one hit wonders every year out of the portal. How does that make sense?

Since 2019, only 24% of the Top 10 QB recruits became permanent starters for the team that signed them. That means 3 out of 4 times, it didn't work. That's bad business when you're paying seven figures.

Give me guys like D'Eriq King, Carson Beck and the #1 overall pick of the draft, Cam Ward. At least we know what we're paying for.

 

[DMoney]

Do u have a clue if we have the resources to recruit nationally via in person evaluations?

Dawson sees our commits in person. The tricky thing is that QBs commit early, so by the time we get live eyes on them it's already far along in the process. The OC has to coach during the season so there's limited time to get out and watch QBs from a few classes out.

IMO, the NCAA should ease restrictions on non-coaches making in-person evals. The personnel department has more time to travel.

 

[Rellyrell]

In your own sample, only 42% of playoff QBs are homegrown blue-chips. And one of them is Cade McNamara. The majority are either transfers or three stars.



Since 2019, only 24% of the Top 10 QB recruits became permanent starters for the team that signed them. That means 3 out of 4 times, it didn't work. That's bad business when you're paying seven figures.

Give me guys like D'Eriq King, Carson Beck and the #1 overall pick of the draft, Cam Ward. At least we know what we're paying for.

•How many games did Quinn Ewers play for OSU? Let me help u out, ZERO.

•How many games did JF start for UGA? Let me help u out, ZERO.

•How many games did Burrow start before transferring to LSU? Let me help u out, ZERO. And I made a mistake calling Joe a one yr rental, as he smoked us in 2018 as a transfer looking for a starting opportunity.

Like how do u in good faith look at these guys who were LITERALLY developed at their new schools w/ little to no experience at their prior place & say they’re not home grown?

Quinn Ewers & Justin Fields r not equivalent to a Cam Ward, Kyle McCord or the likes, Holmes. U’re not equating Ewers to King or even Beck. That’s like me calling Scottie Pippen a Sonic b/c they drafted him even though he grew up in the Bulls organization.

Speaking of King, wasn’t this fan base trying to run him out of town? Weren’t we clamming for TVD?

Anyways back to ur stats:

Justin Fields played in 2 CFPs; he was a Top 10 QB
Ewers has played in 2 CFPs; he was a Top 10 QB
McCarthy has played in 2 CFPs; he was a Top 10 QB
Allar has now played in 1 CFPs; he was a Top 10 QB
Hurts played in 1 CFP during this era; he was a Top 10 QB
Burrow played in 1 CFP during this era; he was a Top 10 QB
Stroud played in 1 CFP, he was a top 10 QB
McNamara played in 1 CFP; he was a top 10 QB

There’s been 24 CFP teams, 45% were Top 10 QBs coming out of school, with the one 4* not Top 10 being Milroe.

So like I said, if we’re going the Transfer Portal route, we need to go Ewers, Fields, Burrow; guys w/ multiple yrs, zero to minimal mileage. For as great Ward was, we won nothing this yr, not a bowl game, not a ACC title. King, same thing. Ward is not helping us in 2025, Beck is not helping us in 2026 “if” he can get back to the 2023 version. I’m not sure y this is so difficult for u to comprehend other than protecting the illogical way we’ve evaluated QBs from a HS standpoint.

 

[DMoney]

Like how do u in good faith look at these guys who were LITERALLY developed at their new schools w/ little to no experience at their prior place & say they’re not home grown?

Because they were acquired through the Portal. The whole argument is whether we should spend money to sign top-rated HS QBs. I don't think that's a good use of limited resources.

You listed eight playoff QBs who were Top 10 QBs out of high school. What you don't mention is that half of those guys left the school that signed them. On average, that number is even lower- less than a quarter of Top 10 QBs finish as starters for the school that signs them (24%). So why spend big money on kids who aren't likely to help you?

I don't share your concern with one-and-dones. The QB that won the title was a one-and-done. The QB that finished second was a one-and-done. Our QB-- the most impactful player we've signed in two decades-- was a one-and-done. Those guys hit the ground running.

And I'm not "protecting" any coach's evaluations. I questioned the Emory and Judd evaluations in real time, on record, here and here. My concern is what works for the University of Miami. And based on recent history, we've had more success with guys like Ward and King than Top 10 HS QBs like Jarren Williams, Kevin Olsen, Kirby Freeman and Kyle Wright.

 

[Dwinstitles]

Because they were acquired through the Portal. The whole argument is whether we should spend money to sign top-rated HS QBs. I don't think that's a good use of limited resources.

You listed eight playoff QBs who were Top 10 QBs out of high school. What you don't mention is that half of those guys left the school that signed them. On average, that number is even lower- less than a quarter of Top 10 QBs finish as starters for the school that signs them (24%). So why spend big money on kids who aren't likely to help you?

I don't share your concern with one-and-dones. The QB that won the title was a one-and-done. The QB that finished second was a one-and-done. Our QB-- the most impactful player we've signed in two decades-- was a one-and-done. Those guys hit the ground running.

And I'm not "protecting" any coach's evaluations. I questioned the Emory and Judd evaluations in real time, on record, here and here. My concern is what works for the University of Miami. And based on recent history, we've had more success with guys like Ward and King than Top 10 HS QBs like Jarren Williams, Kevin Olsen, Kirby Freeman and Kyle Wright.

just get the best qbs even if they from the portal, the portal is a better indicator on who can play. None of these college coaches know what they have in a qb till they get on campus and practice. Then if they dont play they weren't difference makers. Its that simple, I agree with Dmoney here. I wont complain about getting a good QB in the portal because he will be a Cane......so who cares. As long as they are good

 

[CANESCANES]

1. If u recruit the transfer portal as a stop gap, make sure ur QB room is solid from the HS rank b/c that’s still going to be ur life line or

2. If u miss on HS eval, recruit the portal for a multi year starter that will not just give u one season, but multiple seasons of success

Miami definitely wanted Mateer who could of given us potentially 2 years of eligibility

 

[SinisterCane]

I really hope this Coleman kid is the answer for all these questions at QB

 

[poncho0091]

In this month’s version of Myth Busters, I’ll be examining the narrative of “The Lack of QB Play.” Again, we're looking to see if Miami's lack of ACC championships are legitimate or if they're simply excuses fans have used to pacify or turn a blind eye to bigger problems.

For QB play, I’m going to focus on our time in the ACC since 2004, focusing on fellow members vs. the nation. Full disclaimer: The QB position is the most important position in football. I’ve debated w/ @DMoney relentlessly regarding our propensity to recruit 3* QB prospects, and/or fringe 4* guys. The data shows the elite teams r led by blue chip QBs whether from the HS or Transfer Portal levels.

Since 2000:
-16/25* Nat’l Champions were led by 4*+ composite rated QBs

-22/25 National Champions were led by QBs that were drafted

-11/25 Nat’l Championship teams were led by 1st Rd QBs

*Composite rankings only go back to 2003, so wasn’t able to locate data for Dorsey, Heupel, & Krenzl, but all 3 were drafted.

Clearly having a top tier QB makes a huge difference for a program, even if said QB is just an efficient game manager that’s surrounded by playmakers on both sides of the ball.

That brings us to our beloved team, The []_[]. Once upon a time we were known as QBU w the likes of Kelly, Kosar, Vinny, Walsh, Gino..****, even Scott Covington got drafted. However, @SCarolina Ibis brought up a very interesting factoid: Since 2000, The Univ of Miami has had 2 QBs drafted (Dorsey, & Kaaya), none of which were in the first 3-rounds.

That, in itself, is an indictment on the program or state of it, which is why it’s going to be a true breath of fresh air to see Ward drafted in the 1st (even if he was a 1-yr rental). NEVERTHELESS, even with the futile production at the QB position, the ? remains, is that the reason we haven’t obtained at least oneACC title?

Let’s examine the evidence:
1. ACC Championships by school since ‘04:

•Clemson - 9
•FSU - 5
•VT - 4
•GT - 1
•WF - 1
•Pitt - 1

2. ACC Championship Game Appearances since ‘05
•Clemson - 10
•FSU - 6
•VT - 6
•GT - 4
•WF - 2
•BC - 2
•UNC - 2
•Pitt - 2
•SMU - 1
•UL - 1
•ND - 1*
•UVA - 1
•Duke - 1
•Miami - 1
*ND was a full time member during the COVID season 2020

3. QBs for ACC Championship Teams:
‘04-present there’s been 15 different QBs that’s led their teams to the ACC crown:

•Randall (‘04 - VT)
•Weatherford (‘05 - FSU)
•Skinner (‘06 -WF)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘08 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Boyd (‘11 - Clemson)
•Manuel (‘12 - FSU)
•Winston (‘13 & ‘14 - FSU)
•Watson (‘15 & ‘16 - Clemson)
•Bryant (‘17 - Clemson)
•Lawrence (‘18, ‘19, & ‘20 - Clemson)
•Pickett (‘21 - Pitt)
•Klubnik (‘22 & ‘24 - Clemson)
•Rodemaker (‘23 - FSU)*
*Took over for the injured Jordan Travis

Out of these 15 QBs:
-6 went undrafted
-2 went in the 6th Rd
-1 went in the 5th Rd
-5 went in the 1st Rd
-1 is TBD

4. In the infant stages of ACC expansion, 5 of the first 6 ACC Champions featured UDFA QBs. Ironically, from 2004-2009, this also coincides w/ our greatest concentration of elite talent drafted to the NFL. Let’s deep dive:

The 6 ACC Champions from ‘04-09 were:
-VT (29 draft picks: 34% were in top 3-Rds)
-FSU (29 draft picks: 52% were in top 3-Rds)
-WF (13 draft picks: 23% were in top 3-Rds)
-GT (16 draft picks: 44% were in top 3-Rds)

Compared to:
-Miami (27 draft picks: 63% were in top 3-Rds)

However, these r just numbers, right? Certainly the QBs that won these titles must’ve put up compelling stats, even if they weren’t drafted, correct? Let’s examine:

-In ‘04 Randall had the following stats:
2,775 total yrds (55.6%) 24 TDs 9 ints

-In ‘05 Weatherford had the following stats:
3,208 yrds (58.8%) 18 TDs 18 ints

-In ‘06 Skinner had the following stats:
2,051 yrds (65.8%) 9 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘07 Glennon had the following stats:
1796 yrds (60.9%) 12 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘08 Taylor had the following stats:
1774 total yrds (57.2%) 9 TDs 7 ints

-In ‘09 Nesbitt had the following stats:
2738 total yrds (46.3%) 28 TDs 5 ints

Comparatively
-In ‘04 Brock Berlin had the following stats :
2,680 yrds (56%) 22 TDS 6 ints

-In ‘05 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
2,403 yrds (58.6%) 19 TDs 10 ints

-In ‘06 Wright got injured, so we ran w/ both him & Freeman:
2,527 combined (57.7%) 16 TDs 15 ints

-In ‘07 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
1,747 yrds (58.5%) 12 TDs 14 ints

-In ‘08 we split between Marve & Harris:
2,488 yrds (57.6%) 26 TDs 20 ints

-In ‘09 Jacory Harris had the following stats:
3,352 yrds (59.6%) 25 TDs 17 ints

Now obviously 2006-2008 were abysmal, but take a look at the winning QBs of the ACC in 2004, 2005, & 2009; now, compare their seasons w/ our QBs stats in said seasons. Also, recall at this time we had the highest concentration of Top 3-Rd picks compared to these programs.

5. OK, let’s forget winning the **** thing; let’s talk about simply playing in the ACCCG. Has it really been due to QB-play that we’ve not been able to secure more than 1 ACCCG appearance? Well, let’s deep dive again:

The Coastal had 15 different QBs play in the CG:
•Vick (‘05 - VT)
•Ball (‘06 - GT)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘07 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Thomas (‘11 - VT)
•Washington (‘12 - GT)
•Boone (‘13 - Duke)
•Thomas (‘14 - GT)
•Williams (‘15 - UNC)
•Evans (‘16 - VT)
•Rosier (‘17 - Good Guys)
•Pickett (‘18 & ‘21)
•Perkins (‘19)
•Maye (‘22)

From this fine list of the who’s who of ACC QBs, what if I were to tell u that only 3 were drafted to play QB (Taylor, Pickett, & Maye)
*Logan Thomas was drafted as a TE

10 of these opposing QBs were UDFAs. Allow me to randomly pick a year…let’s go 2013. In 2013, Duke was led by Anthony Boone. Certainly u remember him, correct? Well if u didn’t, neither did I. Mr Boone had the following stats:
2,474 total yrds (64%) 18 TDs 13 ints

Our QB this season was Stephen Morris; his stats were as follows:
3,028 yrds (57.6%) 21 TDS 12 ints

In fact, Morris had a higher QBR than Boone this season.

Listen, I’m well aware of our QB woes. I’m well aware of how pedestrian, at best, we’ve been at this position of need; but guess what friends, SO WAS THE ENTIRE ACC COASTAL DIVISION. The best QB play since 2011 has come from the former Atlantic Division. I’m not saying w/ our QB situation we should’ve been competing for a crown every season. Frankly, there’s many seasons where we had arguably the worst room in the league.

That’s still not a justification for only playing for one ACC title in 21 yrs, & having 0 crowns. Other programs, other teams from w/in our own former division who didn’t have the same amount of collective talent on their roster not only played for the ACC, but also won it w/ pedestrian QB play.

Again, this data is not to prove that the QB position is not important, b/c it absolutely is; but, rather it’s to show us fans that this has been another myth to gloss over the bigger issue, mismanagement of talent. If other coaches can overcome a lack of NFL caliber players on their roster + inept QB play, then we should’ve, as well, at least once or thrice since 2004.

I don't remember the last time we had a competent defense and a competent offense in the same season. One or the other has been abysmal at all times.

 

[Rellyrell]

Because they were acquired through the Portal. The whole argument is whether we should spend money to sign top-rated HS QBs. I don't think that's a good use of limited resources

So u feel we should spend our resources on transfer portal QBs every yr, understanding the transfer portal is like a box of chocolates? So what happens when we don’t hit on the transfer portal QB? What happens when a QB chooses the NFL?

Well, we’ll simply be at a standstill; but, pls understand not one top program is operating this way. They use the portal to plug their QB position to protect their HS QB recruits until they r ready to start.

 

[DMoney]

So u feel we should spend our resources on transfer portal QBs every yr, understanding the transfer portal is like a box of chocolates? So what happens when we don’t hit on the transfer portal QB? What happens when a QB chooses the NFL?

Well, we’ll simply be at a standstill; but, pls understand not one top program is operating this way. They use the portal to plug their QB position to protect their HS QB recruits until they r ready to start.

We need to sign a HS QB every year. If one of those guys develops, he becomes the quarterback. But we shouldn’t spend money big money on teenage arms. All the evidence shows that is an extremely risky pool of players.

You say that the transfer portal is “like a box of chocolates.” I see it the opposite way. We know what we’re getting with a Portal QB. We never know what we’re going to get with a high school kid.

I also disagree that the Portal is about “plugging the QB position.” It’s just as much about landing impact players. There’s a reason all the top QBs in this draft came from the Portal. And that includes the guy at pick #1, who happens to be the most impactful player our program has signed in 20 years.

 

[insaneinthecane]